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2021-02-23

• 45. Women´s Quality of Labour, Social Visibility and Quality of Life. Euro-American Report year 2020
  by MCG Blogs de Economía in Euro-American Association: World Development, 2021-02-23 11:29:00 UTC

  Here we present a short version of section 4 of the article by Guisan and Aguayo(2020) 4. Quality of Labour, female social visibility and quality of life. 4.1. Quality of labour and its impact on quality of life      Women workers lifes are sometimes more stressed than lifes of men workers, due to the problems to conceal family life and labour hours. The consequence is that women workers usually have fewer hours of leisury activities per week. In spite of that, the majority of women are happy to find a job, with quality of labour, not only because paid work provides some degree of income and i [...]

2021-02-22

• “Mom, Dad: I’m staying”. Initial labor market conditions, housing markets, and welfare
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2021-02-22 21:26:46 UTC

  By Rodrigo Martínez-Mazza http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2020-14&r=dge Young individuals are currently living with their parents more than at any other point in time, while also spending more on housing. In this paper, I first show how labor market entry conditions affect housing tenure and affordability in the long term, by using the unemployment rate at the time of graduation as an exogenous shock to income. I perform this analysis across Europe for the last 25 years. Results indicate that a 1 pp increase in the unemployment rate at the time of graduation leads, one year after, [...]

2021-02-19

• Why Labour should talk about productivity
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2021-02-19 14:31:06 UTC

  If you buy a goldfish, you shouldn’t be disappointed that it doesn’t catch mice. It is therefore pointless to criticize Starmer’s speech yesterday for being insufficiently critical of capitalism. There is however one curious but important omission from his speech – one which is odd for a technocratic social democrat. I’m referring to the lack of any discussion of, or remedy for, our productivity problem. Just before the pandemic, real wages were actually lower than they were in 2007. The average worker has gone 13 years without a pay rise. This is not because capitalists have taken a bigger s [...]

2021-02-17

• It's not the 90s any more
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2021-02-17 14:01:11 UTC

  Sir Keir Starmer wants to party like it’s 1999. That seems to be his motive for seeking the advice of Peter Mandelson. There is, however, a big problem with this. It’s not the 1990s any more. There have been huge socio-economic changes since then, which require very different policy responses. One of these is that the economy is now stagnating. In the 20 years to May 1997 labour productivity grew by an average of 2.3 per cent. In the 12 years before the pandemic, however, it grew by only 0.2 per cent per year. Back in the 90s, therefore, it was reasonable to believe that the economy would grow [...]

2021-02-15

• A Buffer-Stock Model for the Government: Balancing Stability and Sustainability
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2021-02-15 19:09:58 UTC

  By Jean-Marc Fournier http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/159&r=dge A fiscal reaction function to debt and the cycle is built on a buffer-stock model for the government. This model inspired by the buffer-stock model of the consumer (Deaton 1991; Carroll 1997) includes a debt limit instead of the Intertemporal Budget Constraint (IBC). The IBC is weak (Bohn, 2007), a debt limit is more realistic as it reflects the risk of losing market access. This risk increases the welfare cost of fiscal stimulus at high debt. As a result, the higher the debt, the less governments should smooth the cy [...]

• Is Inflation Coming?
  by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2021-02-15 12:42:50 UTC

   Money money money money, money… Don’t let, don’t let, don’t let money fool you For the Love of Money, The O’Jays , 1973 “[W]ith inflation running persistently below 2 percent, our policy will aim to achieve inflation outcomes that keep inflation expectations well anchored at our 2 percent longer-run goal.” Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Richard Clarida , January 8, 2021. Over the past quarter century, disagreements about monetary policy have been narrow. A broad consensus developed that central banks should be independent, with a primary focus on price stability. Furthermore, nearly everyone agre [...]

• Chris Sampson’s journal round-up for 15th February 2021
  by Chris Sampson in The Academic Health Economists' Blog, 2021-02-15 12:00:01 UTC

  Every Monday our authors provide a round-up of the latest peer-reviewed journal publications. We cover all issues of major health economics journals as well as some other notable releases. If you’d like to write one of our weekly journal round-ups, get in touch . Journal of Health Economics Volume 75 This month we have another dozen articles from JHE on a variety of topics. But no COVID! A few papers look at maternal and infant health. One study focused on the impact of maternity ward crowding in Denmark between 2000 and 2014. As you might expect, the delivered care changes accord [...]

2021-02-13

• Choosing charlatans
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2021-02-13 12:55:24 UTC

  People choose to listen to charlatans even when it is against their interest to do so. That’s the message of some recent experiments . Aristotelis Boukouras and colleagues got subjects to take a multiple choice exam during which they could choose to take help from one of two computerized advisors. One of these was an expert, who gave the answers that a panel of economists would. The other gave the answers that had been most popular with other people who had taken the test. They found that most people chose to take advice from the latter – even after they had been told that it was only giving t [...]

2021-02-12

• Two papers on monetary theory where the Friedman Rule is not optimal
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2021-02-12 19:23:26 UTC

  Nominal Contracts and the Payment System By Hakime Tomura http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:1923&r=dge This paper introduces into an overlapping generations model the courts inability to distinguish different qualities of goods of the same kind. Given the recognizability of fiat money for the court, this friction leads to the use of nominal debt contracts as well as the use of fiat money as a means of payment in the goods market. This result holds without dynamic inefficiency or lack of double coincidence of wants. Instead, money is necessary because it is essential for credit. However, [...]

• Why income inequality is the key predictor of COVID-19 death rates, according to 3 Kellogg School professors
  by insider@insider.com (Katie Gilbert) in Business Insider, 2021-02-12 14:00:00 UTC

  Researchers found a staggering difference in death rates between low- and high-income people. Blake Nissen/The Boston Globe/Getty Images Kellogg School professors conducted research on why COVID death rates are higher in certain countries and US states.  Considering factors like population age, share of doctors, and climate conditions didn't reveal a correlation.  Instead, they found that higher death rates tended to occur in places with higher pre-COVID income inequality. Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories . As the coronavirus pandemic rages on, the wide chasm between [...]

2021-02-11

• You’re sad, I’m sad, we’re all sad. Is there a way out?
  by Eve Andrews in Grist Business and Technology, 2021-02-11 11:33:35 UTC

  Q. Dear Umbra, How can I get others out of a funk if I am deep in one too? –Sorry, Also Down A. Dear SAD, The pressure you are putting on yourself to be a joy-dispensing pandemic Tinkerbell is deeply ingrained in our culture: American social graces are all about projecting a “friendly and upbeat” vibe — even though that feels so definitively disingenuous at this moment that it’s hard to keep up. And you’re definitely onto something. Humans take cues from each other: It’s basically how society functions. We are wired to change our behavior, mannerisms, way of dress, and even beliefs based on w [...]

2021-02-10

• Choices, capabilities, and unanswered questions
  by Chris Sampson in The Academic Health Economists' Blog, 2021-02-10 07:00:04 UTC

  Sometimes research gets left in a drawer. The virtual equivalent can happen to blog posts. In clearing out some old drafts, I found a blog post on capabilities that it seems I wrote in May 2014. I don’t remember what was going on in my life back then. But it was before I had embraced the Oxford comma (I have added one to the title). It seems that this blog post is not entirely useless or, at least, it will be no more useless if released into the wild. So, here it is, an unintended time capsule. Why I didn’t finish it, I don’t remember. Perhaps I thought it would be superseded by my writing [...]

2021-02-08

• Rita Faria’s journal round-up for 8th February 2021
  by Rita Faria in The Academic Health Economists' Blog, 2021-02-08 12:00:01 UTC

  Every Monday our authors provide a round-up of the latest peer-reviewed journal publications. We cover all issues of major health economics journals as well as some other notable releases. If you’d like to write one of our weekly journal round-ups, get in touch . Medical Decision Making Volume 41, Issue 1 There are quite a few interesting studies in this month’s issue of Medical Decision Making . There is a study showing that offering COVID-19 testing in US post offices reduces travel distance and improves accessibility to testing; a study reporting a simulation model for obesity in [...]

• Hazara Representation in Popular Culture
  by Anya Magotra in India at LSE, 2021-02-08 07:47:37 UTC

  This post explores the representation of the Hazara community in popular culture, using the examples of a novel The Kite Runner , a TV talent show Sitara-e Afghan ( Afghan Star) , and a documentary Laila at the Bridge . Rabia Khan discusses the gradual change in perceptions about Hazara identity, especially in terms of community consciousness and individual agency, and highlights the manner in which contemporary depictions of the Hazaras reflect more intricate forms of engagement with the historical, political and social realities of the community. In July 2020, Netflix released Stateless , a [...]

2021-02-07

• That Mystical Monetary Theory
  by Tyler Durden in Zero Hedge, 2021-02-07 22:50:00 UTC

  That Mystical Monetary Theory Authored by Joakim Book via The American Institute for Economic Research, MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory, is on everyone’s lips – and it seems that everyone is keen on this long-obscure idea of how our public finances really work.  In an article in the latest issue of  Economic Affairs , I try to condense the argument into four propositions that form the core of MMTers’ understanding of the world. I do this by reviewing  Stephanie Kelton’s book  from June of last year, Kelton being the most vocal and well-known persona in the field. I show that th [...]

2021-02-05

• Reply to Academic Agent on Austrian Economics and Price Rigidity
  by LK in Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Post Keynesian Perspective, 2021-02-05 09:27:00 UTC

  Academic Agent lost a bet to me on Twitter and was forced to respond to my post here on Austrian economics and the reality of relative price rigidity. He has now produced two videos in this debate. Here is Academic Agent’s first video response to my post: Before he uploaded the video, I predicted that his video would contain the following: (1) he would misrepresent the actual theories of Austrian economics; (2) he would attack straw-man misrepresentations of my post; (3) he would focus on minor arguments and weak evidence and largely ignore major arguments and strong evidence. These predictio [...]

• A fistful of dollars: transmission of global funding shocks to emerging markets
  by BankUnderground in Bank Underground, 2021-02-05 09:00:00 UTC

  Aakriti Mathur and Shekhar Hari Kumar Emerging markets (EMs) have become more exposed to the global financial cycle in recent years. Positive liquidity shocks – that is, a loosening of global funding market conditions – have led to exchange rate appreciations, reductions in long-term bond yields, stock market booms, and increased gross capital flows to EMs ( Bhattarai et al (2018) ). Negative liquidity shocks on the other hand constitute a tightening of financial conditions, reducing lending and real investment ( Bruno and Shin (2015) and Avdjiev et al (2018) ). In a recent pape [...]

2021-02-02

• The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: A Quantitative Evaluation
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2021-02-02 05:00:29 UTC

  By Rüdiger Bachmann, Jinhui Bai, Minjoon Lee and Fudong Zhang http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:wsuwpa:2020_002&r=dge This study explores the welfare and distributional effects of fiscal volatility using a neoclassical stochastic growth model with incomplete markets. In our model, households face uninsurable idiosyncratic risks in their labor income and discount factor processes, and we allow aggregate uncertainty to arise from both productivity and government purchases shocks. We calibrate our model to key features of the U.S. economy, before eliminating government purchases shocks. We then ev [...]

2021-02-01

• This Decade’s Growth Champions
  by Kaushik Basu in Project Syndicate, 2021-02-01 15:38:41 UTC

  ITHACA – With 2021 still young, and hope in the air thanks to new COVID-19 vaccines and a new occupant of the White House, we can finally stop covering our eyes in horror and peer furtively into the future. As the decade unfolds, which countries are likely to be the biggest economic success stories? My bet is on South Korea, Vietnam, and Mexico, three countries at markedly different stages of development. South Korea is an advanced economy, while Vietnam is what the World Bank calls a lower middle-income economy, like India or Bangladesh. Mexico, an upper middle-income country like Colombia, B [...]

• GameStop: Some Preliminary Lessons
  by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2021-02-01 13:22:59 UTC

  “The risk-reward of being a short seller is not worth it; it’s not worth it for me or my family.” Andrew Left, founder of Citron Research, The Wall Street Journal , January 29, 2021. Volatility in the stock market is not new. We remember the October 1987 crash, the dot.com bust in the early 1990s, and the collapse following the Lehman bankruptcy in September 2008. If you invest to gain the long-run benefits of equity ownership, you need some way to shield yourself from the inevitable day-to-day carnage. But, even if one takes such a broad perspective, recent experience with GameStop is extrao [...]

• Machine Learning for Realized Volatility Forecasting
  by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations, 2021-02-01 12:16:00 UTC

  Check out this interesting paper.� Lots to think about. Kim Christensen & Mathias Siggaard & Bezirgen Veliyev , 2021. " A machine learning approach to volatility forecasting ,"� CREATES Research Papers �2021-03, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University. https://ideas.repec.org/p/aah/create/2021-03.html The paper shows that various ML methods outperform HAR for daily forecasting of realized asset-return volatility.� Of course there's nothing particularly interesting about HAR.� What's interesting is long memory, the overwhelmingly dominant feature of asset return realiz [...]

• Chris Sampson’s journal round-up for 1st February 2021
  by Chris Sampson in The Academic Health Economists' Blog, 2021-02-01 12:00:03 UTC

  Every Monday our authors provide a round-up of the latest peer-reviewed journal publications. We cover all issues of major health economics journals as well as some other notable releases. If you’d like to write one of our weekly journal round-ups, get in touch . Applied Health Economics and Health Policy Volume 19, Issue 1 AHEHP is the journal for me. Almost every issue includes a good mix of topics and methods from the broad church of health economics, and I like variety. This issue is no different. It opens with a commentary on medically assisted dying , which I previously discuss [...]

2021-01-29

• The death of economic policy
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2021-01-29 13:51:47 UTC

  One of the great and under-appreciated changes of recent years has been the disappearance of serious economic debate from Westminster politics. For decades the big political divide was about economics: the causes and cures for the UK’s relative economic decline; the precise mix of state and private sector; what to do about industrial relations; monetarism vs Keynesianism; how to achieve macroeconomic stability; how to redefine social democracy in the 90s; and austerity after 2010. Today, though, mainline politics is largely innocent of economics. The Tories, Stian Westlake has said , “seem to [...]

2021-01-27

• The Silent Pandemic of Antibiotic Resistance
  by Patricia Geli in Project Syndicate, 2021-01-27 16:21:03 UTC

  WASHINGTON, DC/UPPSALA – When the World Health Organization launched last year’s World Antimicrobial Awareness Week, it expanded the campaign’s focus from antibiotics to all antimicrobials – including antiviral, antifungal, and antiprotozoal drugs. The WHO said that framing the response to antibiotic resistance (ABR) within the broader antimicrobial resistance (AMR) agenda, including HIV and malaria, would “facilitate programmatic synergy and efficiency, and catalyze country-level action to combat drug-resistant infections.” But although there are many commonalities between ABR and AMR, there [...]

2021-01-26

• The macroprudential toolkit: effectiveness and interactions
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2021-01-26 18:45:13 UTC

  By Stephen Millard, Margarita Rubio and Alexandra Varadi http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0902&r=dge We use a DSGE model with financial frictions, leverage limits on banks, loan to value (LTV) limits and debt‑service ratio (DSR) limits on mortgage borrowing to examine: i) the effects of different macroprudential policies on key macro aggregates; ii) their interaction with each other and with monetary policy; and iii) their effects on the volatility of key macroeconomic variables and on welfare. We find that capital requirements can nullify the effects of financial frictions and reduce t [...]

2021-01-25

• Chris Sampson’s journal round-up for 25th January 2021
  by Chris Sampson in The Academic Health Economists' Blog, 2021-01-25 12:01:17 UTC

  Every Monday our authors provide a round-up of the latest peer-reviewed journal publications. We cover all issues of major health economics journals as well as some other notable releases. If you’d like to write one of our weekly journal round-ups, get in touch . Economics & Human Biology Volume 40 I know we keep saying that health economists haven’t been much of a presence in COVID-related policy discussions, but these round-ups are testament to the fact that there is no shortage of economics research on the topic. The latest issue of E&HB is no exception. One article focuses on men [...]

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