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Blog aggregator for economics research

2018-12-14

• The Demand for Apartments versus Single Family Homes
  by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2018-12-14 14:01:00 UTC

  In New York City, Hong Kong, Shanghai and London and Paris,� rich people live in apartments.� President Trump owns several apartments in Manhattan.� Poor people also live in apartments.� These apartments are of different sizes, located in different areas and in different buildings and apartments are of different quality levels as well.� In the United States, the vast majority of people live in spread out single family homes. The majority's choice to not live in multi-family apartment buildings has social consequences.� If more of us lived in apartments in multi-family buildings, then we would [...]

2018-12-13

• Collateral Booms and Information Depletion
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2018-12-13 15:49:27 UTC

  By Vladimir Asriyan, Luc Laeven and Alberto Martín http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1064&r=dge We develop a new theory of information production during credit booms. In our model, entrepreneurs need credit to undertake investment projects, some of which enable them to divert resources towards private consumption. Lenders can protect themselves from such diversion in two ways: collateralization and costly screening, which generates durable information about projects. In equilibrium, the collateralization-screening mix depends on the value of aggregate collateral. High collateral values r [...]

2018-12-12

• 2018 Saw Simultaneous Wildfires Devastate California. That Could be the New Normal
  by ? in Discover Top Stories, 2018-12-12 20:27:11 UTC

  (Inside Science) -- Just a few weeks ago, two large wildfires caused massive destruction and at least 91 deaths in California, the Woolsey fire near Los Angeles and the Camp fire that engulfed the town of Paradise in the north. Residents and firefighters s [...]

• Minneapolis 2040: The most wonderful plan of the year
  by Jenny Schuetz in The Avenue, 2018-12-12 15:42:34 UTC

  By Jenny Schuetz Perhaps proximity to the North Pole has its advantages. On December 7, Santa Claus (a.k.a. the Minneapolis City Council ) delivered an early holiday gift to Twin Cities urbanists: several key zoning reforms, neatly packaged in an 1100-page comprehensive plan . YIMBYs around the country have been following the pitched battle over the plan’s most revolutionary feature : whether to allow small apartment buildings in neighborhoods currently zoned for only single-family homes. The approved plan would change the allowed residential uses on roughly half the city’s land. But, this is [...]

2018-12-11

• ¡No más regalos envenenados a costa nuestra!
  by Leopoldo in La Silla Vacía, 2018-12-11 18:55:14 UTC

  @LeopoldoTweets A nadie le gusta pagar impuestos. Pero son inevitables (tanto como la muerte, dice el adagio). Ausente una utopía libertaria, los necesitamos para financiar al Estado. Lo que definitivamente a nadie le gusta y que sí podríamos evitar es pagar impuestos cuando otros, que también podrían poner su parte, no lo hacen. Y eso es lo que sucede en Colombia. Lo más grave es que esta tragedia (porque lo es) la promueve el propio Estado al incorporar en su estatuto tributario un costal de regalos injustificados (una exención por acá, un subsidio por allá). Como lo he dicho antes , la Le [...]

• The Substitution and Income Effects Induced by Introducing Carbon Taxes
  by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2018-12-11 15:41:00 UTC

  The protests in France over raising gasoline taxes there highlights that middle class people understand that higher carbon taxes have income effects.  If you drive 15,000 miles a year and if your vehicle achieves 30 miles per gallon and if the price of gasoline increases from $4 to $4.40 due to a 10% increase in the gas tax, then your disposable income declines each year by (15000/30)*.4 = $200. Economists celebrate the substitution effects induced by the carbon tax --- that people who drive will demand more fuel efficient vehicles and drive them less.  On the supply side, the tax will nudge f [...]

• Los efectos de revelar a los profesores sus propios estereotipos
  by Libertad González in Nada Es Gratis, 2018-12-11 06:30:33 UTC

  La semana pasada asistí a un seminario de Paolo Pinotti , profesor en la Universidad Bocconi de Milán. Paolo lleva unos años implicado en un proyecto muy interesante, en el que intentan potenciar los resultados escolares de los niños de origen inmigrante en Italia. En un trabajo anterior encontraban que un programa de tutorías y orientación aumentaba la proporción de niños (varones) de origen inmigrante y alta capacidad que elegían asistir a un instituto académico o técnico en lugar de uno vocacional. En el estudio que nos presentó el otro día, se centraban en determinar si los profesores tien [...]

2018-12-10

• Social Norms, Labor Market Opportunities, and the Marriage Gap for Skilled Women
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2018-12-10 19:28:43 UTC

  By: Bertrand, Marianne  (University of Chicago);  Cortes, Patricia  (Boston University);  Olivetti, Claudia  (Boston College);  Pan, Jessica  (National University of Singapore) Abstract: In most of the developed world, skilled women marry at a lower rate than unskilled women. We document heterogeneity across countries in how the marriage gap for skilled women has evolved over time. As labor market opportunities for women have improved, the marriage gap has been growing in some countries but shrinking in others. We discuss the comparative statics of a theoretical model in which the (negat [...]

• Crisis at Home: Mancession-induced Change in Intrahousehold Distribution
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2018-12-10 19:27:30 UTC

  By: Olivier Bargain  (GREQAM – Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d’Aix-Marseille – ECM – Ecole Centrale de Marseille – CNRS – Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique – AMU – Aix Marseille Université – EHESS – École des hautes études en sciences sociales);  Laurine Martinoty  (CES – Centre d’économie de la Sorbonne – CNRS – Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique – UP1 – Université Panthéon-Sorbonne) Abstract: The Great Recessions was essentially a ‘mancession’ in countries like Spain, the UK or the US, i.e. it hit men harder than women for they were disproportion [...]

• Emigration, Remittances and the Subjective Well-Being of Those Staying Behind
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2018-12-10 19:26:33 UTC

  By: Ivlevs, Artjoms  (University of the West of England, Bristol);  Nikolova, Milena  (University of Groningen);  Graham, Carol Lee  (Brookings Institution) Abstract: Despite growing academic and policy interest in the subjective well-being consequences of emigration for those left behind, existing studies have focused on single origin countries or specific world regions. Our study is the first to offer a global perspective on the well-being consequences of emigration for those staying behind using several subjective well-being measures (evaluations of best possible life, positive affect [...]

• Government education expenditures, pre-primary education and school performance: A cross-country analysis
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2018-12-10 19:25:28 UTC

  By: Daniela Del Boca  (University of Turin and Collegio Carlo Alberto);  Chiara Monfardini  (University of Bologna);  Sarah Grace See  (University of York) Abstract: Using data from OECD’s PISA, Eurostat and World Bank’s WDI, we explore how child cognitive outcomes at the aggregate country level are related to macroeconomic conditions, specifically government education expenditures and early education experience. We find that both government expenditures in education and attendance to early child care are associated with better later school performance. We also consider different childca [...]

• Self Confidence Spillovers and Motivated Beliefs
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2018-12-10 19:24:34 UTC

  By: Ritwik Banerjee  (Indian Institute of Management Bangalore and IZA);  Nabanita Datta Gupta  (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Denmark); Marie Claire Villeval  (University of Lyon) Abstract: Is success in a task used strategically by individuals to motivate their beliefs prior to taking action in a subsequent, unrelated, task? Also, is the distortion of beliefs reinforced for individuals who have lower status in society? Conducting an artefactual field experiment in India, we show that success when competing in a task increases the performers’ self-co [...]

• The Returns to Schooling Unveiled
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2018-12-10 19:23:37 UTC

  By: Cardoso, Ana Rute  (IAE Barcelona (CSIC));  Guimaraes, Paulo  (Banco de Portugal);  Portugal, Pedro  (Banco de Portugal);  Reis, Hugo  (Banco de Portugal) Abstract: We bring together the strands of literature on the returns to education, its spillovers, and the role of the employer shaping the wage distribution. The aim is to analyze the labor market returns to education taking into account who the worker is (worker unobserved ability), what he does (the job title), with whom (the coworkers) and, also crucially, for whom (the employer). We combine data of remarkable quality – exhaust [...]

• Navigating in Cloudy Skies
  by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2018-12-10 12:14:25 UTC

  “Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy‑‑that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth .” Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell , November 28, 2018. “We’re a long way from neutral at this point, probably.” Video Interview of Chairman Powell by Judy Woodruff, PBS (at the 8:05 mark), October 3, 2018. Stargazers hate clouds. Even modest levels of humidity and wind make it hard to “see” the wonders of the night sky. Very few places on our planet have consistently [...]

• Rita Faria’s journal round-up for 10th December 2018
  by Rita Faria in The Academic Health Economists' Blog, 2018-12-10 12:00:31 UTC

  Every Monday our authors provide a round-up of some of the most recently published peer reviewed articles from the field. We don’t cover everything, or even what’s most important – just a few papers that have interested the author. Visit our Resources page for links to more journals or follow the HealthEconBot . If you’d like to write one of our weekly journal round-ups, get in touch . Calculating the expected value of sample information using efficient nested Monte Carlo: a tutorial . Value in Health [ PubMed ] Published 17th July 2018 The expected value of sample information (EVSI) represent [...]

2018-12-08

• What moves markets more, Twitter or traditional news?
  by ? in EUROPP European Politics and Policy, 2018-12-08 07:29:35 UTC

  Twitter has become a key communication tool for world leaders, but how does the impact of tweets on financial markets compare to the impact of traditional news? Based on a new study, Costas Milas, Theodore Panagiotidis and Theologos Dergiades identify a cl [...]

2018-12-06

• Recession risk and the circularity problem, by Scott Sumner
  by ? in Econlog, 2018-12-06 19:45:35 UTC

  [Trigger warning for acrophobics like me.] I have fond memories of growing up in the Midwest, and seeing big white mushroom-shaped water towers on the outskirts of small towns: Back in 1970, a friend of mine told me about some guys he knew that played a game of dare.  They’d go to the top of one of these, and then gradually crawl down as far as they dare, before climbing back up.  But if you make a mistake and go to far, over the horizon, then it’s all over.  I’m a bit acrophobic, so it makes me queasy every time I think about this story, which is several times a year. The reason I frequently [...]

• Quantitative Easing
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2018-12-06 18:55:43 UTC

  By Wei Cui and Vincent Sterk http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1830&r=dge Is Quantitative Easing (QE) an effective substitute for conventional monetary policy? We study this question using a quantitative heterogeneous-agents model with nominal rigidities, as well as liquid and partially liquid wealth. The direct effect of QE on aggregate demand is determined by the difference in marginal propensities to consume out of the two types of wealth, which is large according to the model and empirical studies. A comparison of optimal QE and interest rate rules reveals that QE is indeed a very po [...]

2018-12-04

• Blind to luck
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2018-12-04 16:23:35 UTC

  In a good article on how graduating in a recession does long-lasting damage to one’s career, Tim Harford says “it’s easy to overlook luck.” It is indeed. Evidence for this has been uncovered in experiments by Nattavudh Powdthavee and Yohanes Riyanto. They got students in Singapore and Thailand to bet upon tosses of a fair coin and found that people were willing to pay to back the bet of students who had correctly called previous tosses. “An average person is often happy to pay for what could only be described as transparently useless advice” they conclude. This is startling. But it has been co [...]

• Handel og fertilitet – og TV – i Afrika
  by Christian Bjørnskov in Punditokraterne, 2018-12-04 13:33:17 UTC

  Mens jeg naturligvis passer mine forpligtelser i Danmark, opholder jeg mig for tiden og indtil slutningen af januar rent fysisk ved Alfred Weber Instituttet ved Universitetet i Heidelberg. En af fordelene ved at være på et velrenommeret universitet midt i Europa er, at der kommer en række forskere på besøg, og de fleste giver et seminar. Og nogle af dem er faktisk interessante. Dagens seminar var et af typen, der både var interessant og overraskende. Det blev givet at Manoel Bittencourt (University of Witwatersrand) som præsenterede “ Trade Openness and Fertility Rates in Africa. ” Papiret er [...]

2018-12-03

• E Pluribus Unum: single vs. multiple point of entry resolution
  by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2018-12-03 13:22:14 UTC

  “The turmoil that followed the failure of Lehman and the decision to rescue AIG … underscored the absence of a third alternative to the options of bailout or disruptive bankruptcy.” Daniel K. Tarullo, October 18, 2013 . Addressing the calamity posed by the failure of large, global financial intermediaries has been high on the post-crisis regulatory reform agenda. When Lehman Brothers―a $600 billion entity―failed, it took heroic efforts by the world’s central bankers to prevent a financial meltdown. The lesson is that a robust resolution regime is a critical element of a resilient financial sys [...]

• En skandinavisk matchningsmarknad för doktorandseminarier
  by Gäst in Ekonomistas, 2018-12-03 13:11:26 UTC

  I dagarna har 21 har lyckliga doktorander i Sverige, Norge och Danmark fått besked om att de under 2019 kommer att få presentera sin forskning vid nationalekonomiska institutioner i de tre nämnda länderna. Detta är ett resultat av ett nytt program med syfte att träna doktorander inför internationella akademiska arbetsmarknader. I detta gästinlägg beskriver Tommy Andersson (Lunds universitet) och Randi Hjalmarsson (Göteborgs universitet) bakgrunden och utfallet av detta program. Idén att systematiskt erbjuda doktorander möjligheten att presentera sin forskning vid seminarier utanför sina hemins [...]

2018-12-01

• REED: The Devil, the Deep Blue Sea, and Replication
  by replicationnetwork in The Replication Network, 2018-12-01 08:51:09 UTC

  In a recent article (“ Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea: Tensions Between Scientific Judgement and Statistical Model Selection ” published in Computational Brain & Behavior),  Danielle Navarro identifies blurry edges around the subject of model selection. The article is a tour de force in thinking largely about statistical model selection. She writes, “ What goal does model selection serve when all models are known to be systematically wrong? How might “toy problems” tell a misleading story? How does the scientific goal of explanation align with (or differ from) traditional statistical [...]

2018-11-29

• Should I stay or should I go? Austerity, unemployment and migration
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2018-11-29 14:27:31 UTC

  By Guilherme Bandeira, Jordi Caballé, and Eugenia Vella http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1839&r=dge High unemployment and fiscal austerity during the Great Recession have led to significant migration outflows in those European countries that suffered a deep deterioration of their economy, Greece being the most obvious case. This paper introduces endogenous migration in a small open economy DSGE model to analyze the business cycle effects from the interaction of fiscal consolidation instruments with migration. A tax-based consolidation induces the strongest increase in emigration, leadi [...]

2018-11-28

• La organización de la empresa familiar y confianza durante una crisis
  by admin in Nada Es Gratis, 2018-11-28 06:07:56 UTC

  de  Mircea Epure En una intervención reciente en Bloomberg, Luigi Zingales alertaba sobre la poca sostenibilidad de la rigidez organizativa y la gestión más personal que profesional de las empresas familiares. Estas empresas suelen seguir políticas corporativas que barajan la fiel representación de las preferencias de los accionistas, la conservación del legado familiar y una fuerte incrustación en las normas sociales locales (evidencia aquí ). Sus particularidades y su documentada prevalencia alrededor del mundo, incluso entre las grandes empresas, hicieron que el interés en sus actividades e [...]

• Carlos Ghosn ou les limites de la latitude managériale
  by Michel Albouy in Contrepoints, 2018-11-28 03:35:12 UTC

  Par Michel Albouy. Un article de The Conversation L’annonce de l’ interpellation de Carlos Ghosn , PDG de Renault et président de Nissan et de Mitsubishi Motors, à Tokyo le 19 novembre 2018 a provoqué une véritable onde-choc dans le monde des affaires et des marchés financiers . En une journée, l’action Renault passait de 65,1 à 55,6 euros, soit une baisse de 14,6 % ou encore une perte de capitalisation boursière de 2,8 milliards d’euros. Dans sa séance du 19 novembre 2018, le conseil d’administration de Renault s’est réuni à la suite de l’ouverture de la procédure judiciaire visant Carlos Gho [...]

2018-11-26

• Star Trek and the Economics of the Future (Part I): Tribalism versus Terranism
  by Jason Barr in Building the skyline, 2018-11-26 12:46:53 UTC

  Jason M. Barr      November 26, 2018 You are a barbarian….Don’t sound so incredulous, captain. We all are. A killer first, a builder second. A hunter, a warrior, and—let’s be honest—a murderer. That is our joint heritage, is it not? –Anan 7, Leader of the High Council of Eminiar VII, to James T. Kirk, Captain of the U.S.S. Enterprise (TOS:S1:E:23, A Taste of Armageddon ) Here in the 21 st century, it is clear that the Homo sapiens of Planet Earth are moving inexorably towards one common global community— a Terran Community —rather than a series of independent nation-states. While we may retain [...]

• Sam Watson’s journal round-up for 26th November 2018
  by Sam Watson in The Academic Health Economists' Blog, 2018-11-26 12:00:19 UTC

  Every Monday our authors provide a round-up of some of the most recently published peer reviewed articles from the field. We don’t cover everything, or even what’s most important – just a few papers that have interested the author. Visit our Resources page for links to more journals or follow the HealthEconBot . If you’d like to write one of our weekly journal round-ups, get in touch . Alcohol and self-control: a field experiment in India . American Economic Review Forthcoming Addiction is complex. For many people it is characterised by a need or compulsion to take something, often to prevent [...]

2018-11-19

• Why “Many-Model Thinkers” Make Better Decisions
  by Scott E. Page in HBR Blog Network, 2018-11-19 16:00:30 UTC

  “To be wise you must arrange your experiences on a lattice of models.”  — Charlie Munger Organizations are awash in data — from geocoded transactional data to real-time website traffic to semantic quantifications of corporate annual reports. All these data and data sources only add value if put to use. And that typically means that the data is incorporated into a model. By a model, I mean a formal mathematical representation that can be applied to or calibrated to fit data. Some organizations use models without knowing it. For example, a yield curve, which compares bonds with the same risk pro [...]

• From Basel to the Volcker Rule: A FinReg Glossary
  by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2018-11-19 13:24:10 UTC

  “A multitude of federal agencies, self-regulatory organizations, and state authorities share oversight of the financial system under a framework riddled with regulatory gaps, loopholes, and inefficiencies.” The Volcker Alliance, Reshaping the Financial Regulatory System , p. 1, 2015. Over the past century, an alphabet soup of agencies and rules overseeing and guiding domestic and cross-border finance has emerged. The wave of regulation following the 2007-09 crisis added to the complexity of this framework. With that in mind, we have developed this glossary to help students and teachers navigat [...]

2018-11-16

• Unemployment Insurance Take-up Rates in an Equilibrium Search Model
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2018-11-16 21:29:32 UTC

  By Stéphane Auray, David L. Fuller and Damba Lkhagvasuren http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2018-14&r=dge From 1989-2012; on average 23% of those eligible for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits in the US did not collect them. In a search model with matching frictions; private information associated with the UI non-collectors implies the market equilibrium is not Pareto optimal. The cause of the Pareto inefficiency is characterized along with the key features of collector vs. non-collector outcomes. Non-collectors transition to employment at a faster rate and a lower wage relative to t [...]

• Lower returns to education may lead to lower fertility
  by Bruno Duarte in EUnomics, 2018-11-16 06:26:35 UTC

  Galor and Weil’s  model of fertility and technological frontier (widely replicated by  other authors ) concludes individuals choose between allocating their available effort to increasing the quantity of descendants or improving the quality of descendant’s human capital. The model foresees that this choice shall inevitably lead to decreasing fertility as society improves its technological profile: individuals improve their income and from a certain moment onwards technology improvements leads to lower fertility and higher human capital. Consider the following chart Yellow – wage premia of ba [...]

2018-11-15

• Angry Brexiters
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2018-11-15 13:48:24 UTC

  Brian Cox asks a good question : The thing I don’t understand about these Conservative MPs is that they are such angry people. They haven’t done badly out of Britain - they aren’t on the receiving end of their own policies. And yet they want to smash everything up. The EU, The Union and now their own party. It’s no coincidence that many of those he has in mind such as Rees-Mogg and Johnson - though we might add Farage and Banks – come from posh backgrounds. We know that our preferences adapt (pdf) to our circumstances. As Amartya Sen has written, “deprived people tend to come to terms with t [...]

• ¿Por qué no crecen los salarios en España? (II): Paro, Subempleo y Precariedad
  by Florentino Felgueroso in Nada Es Gratis, 2018-11-15 06:23:36 UTC

  Florentino Felgueroso y Marcel Jansen En la primera parte de esta serie de entradas sobre la moderación salarial en España mostramos la importancia que tiene analizar el fenómeno desde una perspectiva dinámica del mercado de trabajo, es decir, comparando los salarios de los empleos que se crean, los que se destruyen y los que sobreviven. Así, mostramos que los salarios medianos habían crecido en la última década a una tasa del 2% anual, si aislábamos el efecto composición negativo generado por las altas y bajas laborales que se producen mayormente por debajo de la mediana. En esta entrada exam [...]

2018-11-14

• Is human flourishing primarily about psychological health, capability or opportunity?
  by Winton Bates in Freedom and Flourishing, 2018-11-14 20:25:00 UTC

  This question is not just an intellectual puzzle. The way we answer it has important practical implications. The main point I want to make is that the appropriate answer if we are thinking about the flourishing of a close relative, friend or acquaintance is not appropriate if we are thinking about public policy. Before attempting to answer the question, I need to outline the three different approaches. The psychological health approach:   Martin Seligman is a leading exponent of this approach. In his book, ‘Flourish’, Seligman suggests that well-being theory ‘is essentially a theory of uncoe [...]

2018-11-12

• Sam Watson’s journal round-up for 12th November 2018
  by Sam Watson in The Academic Health Economists' Blog, 2018-11-12 15:46:49 UTC

  Every Monday our authors provide a round-up of some of the most recently published peer reviewed articles from the field. We don’t cover everything, or even what’s most important – just a few papers that have interested the author. Visit our Resources page for links to more journals or follow the HealthEconBot . If you’d like to write one of our weekly journal round-ups, get in touch . Estimating health opportunity costs in low-income and middle-income countries: a novel approach and evidence from cross-country data . BMJ Global Health.  Published November 2017. The relationship between health [...]

• U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers
  by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2018-11-12 13:07:42 UTC

  Bank of Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo “ called for more policy coordination and harmonization between countries so that emerging markets can lead global growth alongside a recovery in the U.S. economy.” Nusa Dua, Indonesia, October 8, 2018 . Do changes in U.S. dollar interest rates have a material impact on financial conditions elsewhere in the world? The answer is a resounding yes (see the paper one of us presented at this month’s IMF Annual Research Conference). When the Federal Reserve eases, the result is a dramatic increase in financial system leverage in other countries. Not only that [...]

2018-11-10

• Warfare spurred on the welfare state in the 20th century
  by ? in ScienceNordic, 2018-11-10 05:25:00 UTC

  ...but it probably won’t in future. [...]

2018-11-09

• Does domestic value added speed up growth?
  by Bruno Duarte in EUnomics, 2018-11-09 13:13:22 UTC

  Yes as a consequence of development. Even if spurious, the link between imported inputs and growth in income per capita is present in research and  data .  From  Bernard of Chartres  and  Newton  to  Myrdal  , to  Acemoglu  and  Rodrik , scientists and economists agree knowledge is  cumulatively more efficient .     Considering firms and workers  learn-by-doing , integrating foreign inputs in exports  improves worker productivity . When firms start  turning diminishing returns into constant returns  – that is when firms invest in capital and technology such that an extra machine or extra worke [...]

2018-11-08

• Redistribution and Fiscal Uncertainty Shocks
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2018-11-08 23:01:13 UTC

  By Hikaru Saijo http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:18-e-15&r=dge This paper studies the macroeconomic impact of an uncertainty shock about fiscal policy in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. Motivated by the observation that many fiscal policies are redistributive and that a sizable fraction of U.S. households do not own capital, I introduce household heterogeneity in the form of limited capital market participation. I show that household heterogeneity significantly magnifies the aggregate effect and induces co-movement of macroeconomic variables in a contraction that is generated b [...]

• Stabilization policy with ignorance
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2018-11-08 14:00:10 UTC

  Eric Lonergan’s good  discussion of fiscal rules has triggered an intemperate debate about MMT. For me, though, it poses a question: from which fact(s) should thinking about macro policy begin? For old-style Keynesians, the fact was that labour markets could not be relied upon to clear. For new classicals, it was that people were rational maximizers. I want to suggest a different fact – that recessions are unpredictable. Prakash Loungani has shown that both private and official forecasters “ miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over”. In February 2008 f [...]

2018-11-07

• Midnight Cowboys? New York City Housing Prices and Population Growth in the 21st Century
  by Jason Barr in Building the skyline, 2018-11-07 12:33:28 UTC

  Jason M. Barr      November 7, 2018 In the 1969 film, Midnight Cowboy , the eager young Texan, Joe Buck (played by John Voight) abandons his hometown and makes his way to the Big Apple. Like countless souls before him, there he seeks his fortune. Buck quickly realizes that easy riches in the metropolis are a pipe dream. He befriends the sickly con artist, “Ratzo” Rizzo (played by Dustin Hoffman), who pimps him out to lonely housewives. In the end, the two, dispirited, head to Miami. The story of Joe Buck and Ratzo Rizzo embody the lore and legend of the big messy city, which either vaults you [...]

2018-11-06

• How are countries converging?
  by Bruno Duarte in EUnomics, 2018-11-06 13:13:56 UTC

  Most likely through imported innovation. Simon Johnson  asks the question rhetorically while explaining growth is the product of  labour (quantity and quality), capital, technology  – and the residual, or total factor productivity or the way these factors are organised. Technology has a significant role as the most recent Nobel laureate on Econoics Paul Romer  explains . Romer’s theory describes firms’ choice between  investing in innovation and production , accepting the returns on innovation are seldom fully internalised by firms whilst being significantly higher than those of ordinary produ [...]

• Real GDP per capita
  by Masa in Devecondata, 2018-11-06 06:15:00 UTC

  World Development Indicators  (WDI) - in current/constant local currency unit and in current/constant US dollars since 1960 --- Penn World Table  (PWT) - in purchasing power parity since 1950 See here for my rough summary of data construction. See Nuxoll (1994) for the validity of using economic growth rates from Penn World Table. See also Feenstra et al. (2004) For version 5.6, there is an augmented version constructed by  Fearon and Laitin (2003) . Which is used by  Miguel et al. (2004) , hence contained in  their dataset . --- Comparison of WDI vs PWT Discussing PWT version 6, Johnson et al [...]

2018-11-05

• Montagu Norman: The View from St Clere
  by bankunderground in Bank Underground, 2018-11-05 09:00:00 UTC

  Barry Eichengreen Last May, the Bank organised an economic history workshop at the St Clere Estate, home of former governor Montagu Norman. In this guest post, one of the speakers, Barry Eichengreen from the University of California Berkeley, looks back at Montagu Norman’s time as governor. Montagu Norman’s aura is palpable at St. Clere. It is said that Norman spent many of his weekends and holidays at his estate in Kent, overseeing improvements and admiring the vistas. His legacy is, if anything, even more prominent at the Bank of England. Norman supervised the design of the present Bank bui [...]

2018-11-04

• Recent Brexit Trade Drama Shows that Europe Doesn't Really Want Free Trade
  by Tyler Durden in Zero Hedge, 2018-11-04 07:00:00 UTC

  Authored by Carmen Elena Dorobăț via The Mises Institute, As Brexit negotiations approach their initial deadline, U.K.’s plans to renegotiate a quick trade deal with WTO members once it leaves the EU bloc has been met with disdain by some of their trading partners. U.K.’s shortcut deal  proposed  “essentially copying the same trade deal that the EU and WTO has and then use the same wording in a document covering the U.K.’s new membership”. Russia, U.S., New Zealand, Japan, and Moldova, among others, have raised serious concerns about this since late 2017, and thus did not offer their approval [...]

2018-10-31

• Innovación y Producción en la Economía Global:  Algunas Consecuencias de los Shocks Recientes
  by Costas Arkolakis, Natalia Ramondo, Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, y Stephen Yeaple in Foco Económico, 2018-10-31 20:55:30 UTC

  Una de las consecuencias de las últimas décadas de globalización es que, debido a las empresas multinacionales, los bienes se producen crecientemente en lugares distintos de donde se producen las ideas que los generan. Usando un modelo de equilibrio general, en este artículo, analizamos los efectos causados por la reciente ola de proteccionismo tanto en el ingreso agregado de las naciones como en su distribución adentro de ellas. Para la obtención de nuestros resultados es muy importante la flexibilidad de las multinacionales en relación a la ubicación en el mundo de sus actividades de producc [...]

2018-10-30

• Capital Utilization and Search Unemployment in Dynamic General Equilibrium
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2018-10-30 19:54:10 UTC

  By Ian King and Frank Frank Stähler http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:598&r=dge We present a dynamic general equilibrium model in which both unemployment and capital utilization are determined endogenously in an environment with directed search frictions. The model allows for proportions of both labor and capital to be idle in equilibrium, where the degree of capital utilization determines its depreciation. We show that, under certain conditions, multiple steady state equilibria exist. In stable equilibria, both unemployment and capital utilization rates decline as productivity increases [...]

• Replying to Simon Wren Lewis
  by Bruno Duarte in EUnomics, 2018-10-30 06:49:32 UTC

  “But for a country that can create its own currency there is never any necessity to default.” This sentence on Simon-Wren Lewis’  Why should someone who is anti-austerity care about debt    is inspiring – and intuitively demonstrates how tractability in macroeconomics may hamper realistic thinking.   Printing currency is  socialising public debt through inflation . Beyond politically appalling, it is useless in a world where  domestic content  (read value-added) of price-sensitive exports is necessarily low. This holds unless a country can ensure foreign demand for domestic currency denominat [...]

2018-10-29

• Los equilibrios del dólar
  by Eduardo Levy-Yeyati in Foco Económico, 2018-10-29 16:44:41 UTC

    Hace más o menos veinte años, un querido profesor una vez me dijo que el tipo de cambio de equilibrio era el que surgía en ausencia de intervención. Por algún motivo, esta fe en los equilibrios económicos elementales es cuestionada en la práctica: ante la presión, todos intervienen. [1] Una razón por la que la intervención cambiaria es criticada en teoría y aceptada en la práctica es porque el objeto de la intervención –la moneda de reserva (por lo general, el dólar)– es (al menos) de 4 cosas. Hablamos del dólar como unidad de cuenta en la que denominamos precios y salarios. Este es el sent [...]

• Taking the **Sock** out of FSOC
  by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2018-10-29 12:24:21 UTC

  “The Council’s decision today follows extensive engagement with [Prudential] and a detailed analysis showing that there is not a significant risk that the company could pose a threat to financial stability.” Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin , October 17, 2018. “Insurers and banks also don’t pose the same risk to the financial system. An insurer collects premiums to invest and then pays out in the case of an insured event. A bank takes deposits and promises to repay depositors at any time they choose.” The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, “ Jack Lew’s Last Defeat ,” October 18, 2018. In [...]

• How to keep the EU economy growing next year
  by Bruno Duarte in EUnomics, 2018-10-29 05:26:41 UTC

  By stimulating capital investment . It implies adjusting capital depreciation rates and the deductibility of interest payments, both Union-level instruments. Such policies may deliver a more effective stimulus to investment than the ECB’s interest rate policy. Amongst the EU’s most significant challenges in the coming years is arresting the  sluggish/declining  productivity growth of the past few years and return to income growth at (least at) the long-term pace of inflation target of 2%.  As a  job-intensive  recovery depressed investment, despite the efforts of  ECB  and  Commission , real d [...]

• What inflation measure should a currency union target?
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2018-10-29 03:33:35 UTC

  By William Barnett, Chan Wang, Xue Wang and Liyuan Wu http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:201805&r=dge What is the appropriate inflation target for a currency union, when conducting monetary policy: core inflation or headline inflation? We answer the question in a two-country New Keynesian model with an energy sector. We derive the welfare loss function and find that optimal monetary policy should target output gaps, the terms of trade gap, the Prouder Price Index inflation rates, and the real marginal cost gaps. We use the welfare loss function to evaluate two alternative Taylor-type mon [...]

2018-10-27

• A Climate Change Investment Strategy
  by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2018-10-27 15:24:00 UTC

  Paul Sullivan has written an interesting piece that details his investment advice to help NY Times readers continue to earn a good rate of return in a world facing increased climate risk.� �He really has in mind that carbon taxes will soar over the next few decades and this will punish firms with a large carbon footprint and favor firms that produce low carbon substitutes or whose cost structure is such that they economize on carbon emissions (see his Walmart discussion). So, his piece is really about investing in a world featuring rising carbon taxes.� I'm not convinced by his investment advi [...]

• [経済]マイナス名目金利と銀行業
  by himaginary in himaginaryの日記, 2018-10-27 00:00:00 UTC

  と題したブログエントリ（原題は「Negative Nominal Interest Rates and Banking」）の冒頭でCecchetti＝Schoenholtzが、ドラギECB総裁の以下の言葉を 引用している 。 “By and large our negative interest-rate policies have been a success. We haven’t seen the distortions that people were foreseeing. We haven’t seen bank profitability going down; in fact, it is going up.” Mario Draghi, Comments at the Peterson Institute, Washington D.C., October 12, 2017. (at 36 minutes of the Session on Monetary Policy) （拙訳） 「マイナス金利政策は概して成功だった。人々が予見したような歪みは発生しなかった。銀行の収益性は低下せず、むしろ上昇している。」　マリオ・ドラギ、 ワシントンDCのピーターソン研究所でのコメント、2017年10月12日 （金融政策セッションの36分目） Cecchetti＝Sc [...]

2018-10-26

• Equilibrium foreign currency mortgages
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2018-10-26 17:52:41 UTC

  By Marcin Kolasa http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:293&r=dge This paper proposes a novel explanation for why foreign currency denominated loans to households have become so popular in some emerging economies. Our argument is based on what we call the debt limit channel, which arises when multi-period contracts are offered to financially constrained borrowers against collateral that is established on newly acquired assets. Whenever the difference between domestic and foreign interest rates is positive, this effect biases borrowers’ choices towards foreign currency, even if the exchange ra [...]

2018-10-25

• Corporate taxes and capital
  by Bruno Duarte in EUnomics, 2018-10-25 21:06:50 UTC

  Chirinko  presents an interesting study on the effect of fiscal policy on firms’ decision to invest. The economist concludes the capital-labour elasticity of substitution determines whether tax incentives are effective in increasing capital intensity. Specifically, the research finds fiscal incentives to investment are more effective as capital replaces labour (elasticity above unit) and monetary policy is equally ineffective when capital and labour are complements.  More interestingly, the author identifies novel methods of estimating elasticity computed using capital intensity of output and [...]

• Our feeble intelligence
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2018-10-25 13:55:24 UTC

  I don’t have cancer. I know most of you don’t give a damn about this, but it highlighted for me an under-appreciated fact - of just how limited a role intelligence plays in our life. A week ago, I had a slightly alarming symptom I hadn’t experienced before. I thought it might be a side-effect of some eye-drops I’d been prescribed the day before, so I rang the doctor, expecting to either get the prescription changed or be told not to be such a big jessie. Instead, I was sent to hospital to test for a form of cancer, where I got the all-clear yesterday. When the doctor told me there was a very t [...]

• El crédito oficial durante las crisis
  by admin in Nada Es Gratis, 2018-10-25 05:01:43 UTC

  De  Yolanda Blasco , Joaquim Cuevas y M. Carme Riera Esta entrada, basada en un trabajo todavía en fase de elaboración ( aquí ), analiza el comportamiento del crédito público en las dos crisis económicas más importantes que ha padecido España: la de fines de la década de 1970 y principios de los 80’s, en plena transición política, y la reciente crisis financiera de 2008. El papel que debe desempeñar la banca pública fue analizado y formalizado en la década de 1980 por Jack Revell, quien dedicó un estudio al caso español ( aquí ). Según este experto, además de incidir en la economía como banca [...]

• Inheritance Taxation and Wealth Effects on the Labor Supply of Heirs
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2018-10-25 03:55:36 UTC

  By Fabian Kindermann, Lukas Mayr and Dominik Sachs http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2018-067&r=dge The taxation of bequests can have a positive impact on the labor supply of heirs through wealth effects. This leads to an increase in future labor income tax revenue on top of direct bequest tax revenue. We first show in a theoretical model that a simple back-of-the-envelope calculation, based on existing estimates for the reduction in earnings after wealth transfers, fails: the marginal propensity to earn out of unearned income is not a sufficient statistic for the calculation of this eff [...]

2018-10-24

• Could tax affect jobs?
  by Bruno Duarte in EUnomics, 2018-10-24 19:11:18 UTC

  Fiscal policy structure  influences the labour capital mix  by introducing or removing an incentive for firms to  substitute capital and labour . By plotting a  ratio  of capital and labour taxes and  readily available statistics  on unfilled job positions and gross fixed capital investments, it is possible to discern an upward trend between higher capital taxes relative to labour taxes and increased complementarity of labour and capital (as measured by the correlation of quarterly percent changes between the two variables between 1996 and Q2 2018). Relatively complementary economies such as t [...]

• Demographics and Automation
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2018-10-24 12:48:21 UTC

  By: Daron Acemoglu ;  Pascual Restrepo Abstract: We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, and in particular, to more intensive use and development of robots. Using US data, we document that robots substitute for middle-aged workers (those between the ages of 36 and 55). We then show that demographic change—corresponding to an increasing ratio of older to middle-aged workers—is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across US commutin [...]

• Robot arithmetic: new technology and wages
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2018-10-24 12:47:35 UTC

  By: Caselli, Francesco ;  Manning, Alan Abstract: Existing economic models show how new technology can cause large changes in relative wages and inequality. But there are also claims, based largely on verbal expositions, that new technology can harm workers on average or even all workers. This paper shows – under plausible assumptions – that new technology is unlikely to cause wages for all workers to fall and will cause average wages to rise if the prices of investment goods fall relative to consumer goods (a condition supported by the data). We outline how results may change with diffe [...]

• Intergenerational Mobility and Preferences for Redistribution
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2018-10-24 12:46:14 UTC

  By: Stefanie Stantcheva  (Harvard University);  Edoardo Teso  (Harvard University);  Alberto Alesina  (Harvard University) Abstract: Using newly collected cross-country survey and experimental data, we investigate how beliefs about intergenerational mobility affect preferences for redistribution in five countries: France, Italy, Sweden, U.K., and U.S.. Americans are more optimistic than Europeans about intergenerational mobility, and too optimistic relative to actual mobility. Our randomized treatment that shows respondents pessimistic information about mobility increases support for redis [...]

• Does upward mobility harm trust?
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2018-10-24 12:45:34 UTC

  By: Rémi Suchon  (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne – Groupe d’analyse et de théorie économique – ENS Lyon – École normale supérieure – Lyon – UL2 – Université Lumière – Lyon 2 – UCBL – Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 – Université de Lyon – UJM – Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] – Université de Lyon – CNRS – Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique);  Marie Claire Villeval  (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne – Groupe d’analyse et de théorie économique – ENS Lyon – École normale supérieure – Lyon – UL2 – Université Lumière – Lyon 2 – UCBL – Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 – Université de Lyon – UJM [...]

• Evaluating Intergenerational Persistence of Economic Preferences: A Large Scale Experiment with Families in Bangladesh
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2018-10-24 12:44:24 UTC

  By: Shyamal Chowdhury ;  Matthias Sutter ;  Klaus F. Zimmermann Abstract: Economic preferences – like time, risk and social preferences – have been shown to be very influential for real-life outcomes, such as educational achievements, labor market outcomes, or health status. We contribute to the recent literature that has examined how and when economic preferences are formed, putting particular emphasis on the role of intergenerational transmission of economic preferences within families. Our paper is the first to run incentivized experiments with fathers and mothers and their children b [...]

• Gender and Peer Effects on Performance in Social Networks
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2018-10-24 12:43:02 UTC

  By: Julie Beugnot Marie Claire Villeval ;  Bernard Fortin ;  Guy Lacroix ;  Marie Claire Villeval Abstract: We investigate whether peer effects at work differ by gender and whether gender differences in peer effects -if any- depend on work organization. We develop a social network model with gender heterogeneity that we test in a real-effort laboratory experiment. We compare sequential networks in which information flows from peers to the worker and simultaneous networks where it disseminates bi-directionally. We identify strong gender differences as females disregard their peers’ perfor [...]

• Unfairness at Work: Well-Being and Quits
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2018-10-24 12:41:17 UTC

  By: D’Ambrosio, Conchita  (University of Luxembourg);  Clark, Andrew E.  (Paris School of Economics);  Barazzetta, Marta  (University of Luxembourg) Abstract: We here consider the effect of the level of income that individuals consider to be fair for the job they do, which we take as measure of comparison income, on both subjective well-being and objective future job quitting. In six waves of German Socio-Economic Panel data, the extent to which own labour income is perceived to be unfair is significantly negatively correlated with subjective well-being, both in terms of cognitive evalua [...]

• The Elasticity of Intergenerational Substitution, Parental Altruism, and Fertility Choice
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2018-10-24 03:12:53 UTC

  By Juan Carlos C�rdoba and Marla Ripoll http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:6397&r=dge Dynastic models common in macroeconomics use a single parameter to control the willingness of individuals to substitute consumption both intertemporally, or across periods, and intergenerationally, or across parents and their children. This paper defines the concept of elasticity of intergenerational substitution (EGS), and extends a standard dynastic model in order to disentangle the EGS from the EIS, or elasticity of intertemporal substitution. A calibrated version of the model lends strong support to [...]

2018-10-22

• Negative Nominal Interest Rates and Banking
  by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2018-10-22 12:23:45 UTC

  “By and large our negative interest-rate policies have been a success. We haven’t seen the distortions that people were foreseeing. We haven’t seen bank profitability going down; in fact, it is going up.” Mario Draghi, Comments at the Peterson Institute, Washington D.C., October 12, 2017 . (at 36 minutes of the Session on Monetary Policy) The financial crisis of 2007-2009 taught us many lessons about monetary policy. Most importantly, we learned that when financial systems are impaired, central banks can backstop both illiquid institutions and illiquid markets. Actively lending to solvent inte [...]

• Rita Faria’s journal round-up for 22nd October 2018
  by Rita Faria in The Academic Health Economists' Blog, 2018-10-22 11:00:09 UTC

  Every Monday our authors provide a round-up of some of the most recently published peer reviewed articles from the field. We don’t cover everything, or even what’s most important – just a few papers that have interested the author. Visit our Resources page for links to more journals or follow the HealthEconBot . If you’d like to write one of our weekly journal round-ups, get in touch . Economically efficient hepatitis C virus treatment prioritization improves health outcomes . Medical Decision Making [ PubMed ] Published 22th August 2018 Hepatitis C treatment was in the news a couple of years [...]

2018-10-21

• The 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics
  by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2018-10-21 02:17:00 UTC

  I am delighted that Bill Nordhaus and Paul Romer will share the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics.� A technical summary of why they have won is posted here. � I am eager to see if Professor Nordhaus engages with Prof. Robert Pindyck's arguments about the "danger" of taking Integrated Assessment Models seriously as predictive models of how the world's economy will be affected by climate change. In my ongoing research, I argue that Paul Romer's work provides a framework for re-evaluating the Nordhaus core model.� I explore this the me in this 2018 paper with Zhao.� � Bill Nordhaus made a major contr [...]

2018-10-20

• A New Keynesian Model with Wealth in the Utility Function
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2018-10-20 20:40:08 UTC

  By Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24971&r=dge This paper extends the New Keynesian model by introducing wealth, in the form of government bonds, into the utility function. The extension modifies the Euler equation: in steady state the real interest rate is negatively related to consumption instead of being constant, equal to the time discount rate. Thus, when the marginal utility of wealth is large enough, the dynamical system representing the equilibrium is a source not only in normal times but also at the zero lower bound. This property eliminates [...]

• Aggregate Effects of Minimum Wage Regulation at the Zero Lower Bound
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2018-10-20 20:17:16 UTC

  By Andrew Glover http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed018:1285&r=dge The Fair Minimum Wage Act of 2007 increased the U.S. nominal minimum wage by 41 percent immediately prior to nominal interest rates hitting the Zero Lower Bound in 2008. I study the interaction of these two events in an extension of the sticky-price New Keynesian model. The minimum wage dampens the contractionary effects of the ZLB by preventing rapid wage deflation, halting the deflationary spiral caused by low aggregate demand. For sufficiently persistent ZLB shocks, the minimum wage generates infinite output gains relative [...]

• Progress paradoxes in China, India, and the US: A tale of growing but unhappy countries
  by Carol Graham, Sergio Pinto in Up Front, 2018-10-20 13:27:57 UTC

  By Carol Graham, Sergio Pinto What we know depends on what we measure. Traditional income-based metrics, such as GDP and poverty headcounts, tell a story of unprecedented economic development , as seen by improvements in longevity, health, and literacy . Yet, well-being metrics, which are based on large-scale surveys of individuals around the world and assess their daily moods, satisfaction with life, and meaning and purpose in life, among other things, provide a very different picture of what is happening to people within and across countries—stories that economic numbers often do not tell. D [...]

2018-10-19

• Tribalism, Terranism, and Technology: The Pitfalls and Promises of Globalization
  by Jason Barr in Building the skyline, 2018-10-19 12:14:07 UTC

  Jason M. Barr     October 19, 2018 A Brief History of Homo Sapiens If we look back over the long sweep of Earth history, Homo sapiens has succeeded not only because it can adapt to nearly any environment on the planet, but also because it can change the environment to suit its needs and wants at any given time. One can say that technological innovation is the defining characteristic of Homo sapiens’ success—the ability to consciously manipulate and alter the Earth’s materials to increase productivity and product variety. Arguably this started with the creation of stone tools and animal-skin cl [...]

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