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EconAcademics.org

Blog aggregator for economics research

2022-05-17

• Dynamic spatial general equilibrium
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-05-17 02:55:29 UTC

  By Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu and Stephen Redding http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113917&r=dge We develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model with forward-looking investment and migration decisions. We characterize analytically the transition path of the spatial distribution of economic activity in response to shocks. We apply our framework to the re-allocation of US economic activity from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt from 1965-2015. We find slow convergence to steady-state, with US states closer to steady-state at the end of our sample period than at its beginning. We find su [...]

2022-05-10

• Liquidity constraints and fiscal multipliers
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-05-10 04:28:58 UTC

  By Diogo Sá http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:112132&r=dge Although recent studies identified the percentage of constrained agents as the crucial force driving many fiscal policy mechanisms, the values attained were purely the result of model calibrations. We make use of household-level data to estimate the fraction of hand-to-mouth households for several European countries. We calibrate an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents to match the net liquid wealth distribution and study the impact of credit constraints on the effectiveness of fiscal consolidation policies. Ou [...]

2022-05-09

• House prices: who wins, who loses
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2022-05-09 12:55:19 UTC

  I grow my own kale and never buy any from the shops. If the price of kale rises, do I therefore win or lose? The answer is: neither. On the one hand, I could profit if I were to sell the kale I grow. But on the other, the cost of eating my own kale – the money I would make if I were to sell it – has also risen. Net, I’m neither better or worse off. Some of you might not care very much about the kale-growers of Rutland. What’s true of kale, though, is true of something many of you do care about – house prices. Just as I am self-sufficient in kale, so I’m self-sufficient in housing. As an owner- [...]

2022-04-28

• Dollar Invoicing, Global Value Chains, and the Business Cycle Dynamics of International Trade
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-28 18:59:01 UTC

  By Nikhil Patel and David Cook http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/028&r=dge Recent literature has highlighted that international trade is mostly priced in a few key vehicle currencies and is increasingly dominated by intermediate goods and global value chains (GVCs). Taking these features into account, this paper reexamines the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates and international trade flows. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, it finds key differences between the response of final goods and GVC trade to both domestic and foreign shocks [...]

2022-04-27

• Migrant Smuggling to Europe: a Matching Model
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-27 04:09:39 UTC

  By Olivier Charlot, Claire Naiditch and Radu Vranceanu http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2022-05&r=dge This paper develops a matching model à la Pissarides (2000) to analyze the migrant smuggling market, building on the empirical evidence related to the smuggling of migrants from the Horn of Africa and the Middle East to the European region in the last decade. The model allows us to determine the equilibrium numbers of smugglers and of incoming irregular migrants as well as the total migrant welfare. Most of the coercion-based measures targeting the smugglers achieve the reduction in th [...]

2022-04-22

• What the Shanghai Lockdown Tells Us About China’s Future
  by Nancy Qian in Project Syndicate, 2022-04-22 14:20:48 UTC

  CHICAGO – After signaling that it was moving to a more nuanced COVID-19 policy, Shanghai – a city of 26 million – was pressured by the central government to lock down in late March, and has only just started to ease restrictions after almost one month. The official reason for this drastic policy shift is that citywide testing had revealed high infection rates. Yet one is left wondering why the authorities didn’t opt for a less costly alternative to a complete lockdown. After all, Omicron, which now accounts for almost all new cases globally, has only mild effects on vaccinated people. And w [...]

2022-04-20

• Girls Excel in Language Arts Early, Which May Explain the STEM Gender Gap in Adults
  by ? in ScienceBlog.com, 2022-04-20 13:39:14 UTC

  For most of us, when we make major career choices, we tend to lean into what we’re good at. According to new findings from the University of California San Diego’s Rady School of Management, such skills may develop early in childhood and there can be signi [...]

2022-04-18

• Attention and Fluctuations in Macroeconomic Uncertainty
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-18 14:46:30 UTC

  By Yu-Ting Chiang http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:93807&r=dge This paper studies a dispersed information economy in which agents can exert costly attention to learn about an unknown aggregate state of the economy. Under certain conditions, attention and four measures of uncertainty are countercyclical: Agents pay more attention when they expect the economy to be in a bad state, and their reaction generates higher (i) aggregate output volatility, (ii) cross-sectional output dispersion, (iii) forecast dispersion about aggregate output, and (iv) subjective uncertainty about aggregate out [...]

• Why the Buffalo Bills Stadium Deal is One of the Worst Ever Made
  by ? in Counter Punch, 2022-04-18 07:50:59 UTC

  After New York lawmakers blew past the deadline to approve the state budget, they finally came to an agreement on April 9, 2022, that included a US$850 million subsidy for a new stadium in Buffalo for the NFL’s Bills. As a sports economist who has studied [...]

2022-04-16

• (In)Efficient Commuting And Migration Choices: Theory And Policy In An Urban Search Model
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-16 21:49:42 UTC

  By Luca Marchiori, Julien Pascal and Olivier Pierrard http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2022006&r=dge We develop a monocentric urban search-and-matching model in which workers can choose to commute or to migrate within the region. The equilibrium endogenously allocates the population into three categories: migrants (relocate from their hometown to the city), commuters (traveling to work in the city) and home stayers (remaining in their hometown). We prove that the market equilibrium is usually not optimal: a composition externality may generate under- or over-migration with respect to th [...]

2022-04-12

• Who Suffers the Most From Crime Wave?
  by GianCarlo Canaparo in The Foundry, 2022-04-12 13:53:14 UTC

  Violent crime, like the price of gas, is rising. Not everyone is experiencing this crime wave in the same way. For some, it’s a distant issue experienced by other people somewhere else. For others, it’s a daily life-threatening concern. We parsed the FBI’s crime data from 2011 to 2020 (the most recent data available) and found that African Americans bear an increasingly large share of the harm from crime. African American offenders, meanwhile, are committing an increasingly large share of violent crimes. For other racial groups, the numbers are either decreasing (in the case of both whi [...]

2022-04-07

• Land is back, it should be taxed, it can be taxed
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-07 19:10:20 UTC

  By Odran Bonnet, Guillaume Chapelle, Alain Trannoy and Etienne Wasmer http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03238443&r=dge Land is back. The increase in wealth in the second half of 20th century arose from housing and land. It should be taxed. We introduce land and housing structures in Judd’s standard setup: first best optimal taxation is achieved with a property tax on land and requires no tax on capital. With positive taxes on housing rents, a first best is still possible but with subsidies to rental housing investments, and either with differential land tax rates or with a tax on imp [...]

2022-03-30

• Opportunity and Inequality across Generations
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-30 22:04:04 UTC

  By Winfried Koeniger and Carlo Zanella http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15073&r=dge We analyze how intergenerational mobility and inequality would change relative to the status quo if dynasties had access to optimal insurance against low ability of future generations. Based on a dynamic, dynastic Mirrleesian model, we find that insurance against intergenerational ability risk increases in the social optimum relative to the status quo. This implies less intergenerational mobility in terms of welfare but no quantitatively significant change in earnings mobility. Earnings mobility is thu [...]

2022-03-28

• There Is No Saving the Case for Industrial Policy
  by Don Boudreaux in Cafe Hayek, 2022-03-28 16:14:03 UTC

  (Don Boudreaux) Tweet Mr. W__ alleges that my opposition to industrial policy “must be explained only by [my] dogmatic faith in the magic of imaginary free market forces.” Mr. W__: You write, in support of industrial policy, that “[t]here is no guarantee that we’ll get optimum comparative advantage under the free market.” Of course not. Nothing in life, save death, is guaranteed. That standard is inappropriate because meeting it is impossible. The relevant question here is this: Under which policy – free markets or government direction – are individuals as producers most likely to discover [...]

• Video of My Presentation on Asymmetric Carbon Emissions
  by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2022-03-28 04:47:00 UTC

  I recently gave a seminar in Italy (virtually) on our paper on asymmetric carbon emissions over the business cycle. Here is the video: [...]

2022-03-25

• Minimum Wage Shocks in an Estimated DSGE Model with Underreporting
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-25 23:35:13 UTC

  By Alisher Tolepbergen http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajx:wpaper:20&r=dge We build and estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of minimum wage shocks in an economy characterized by a high degree of wage underreporting. The estimation results suggest that the effect of the minimum wage shocks to all economic aggregates but employment is not significant. The impulse response analysis shows that a higher degree of underreporting results in less responsive dynamics to the minimum wage shocks. In addition, the magnitude of the responses is also affected by the share o [...]

2022-03-24

• How to build climate resilience into the construction industry
  by ? in Forum:Blog, 2022-03-24 08:25:59 UTC

  Investment in climate resilience for infrastructure is vital. Providing the construction sector with data and tools to assess climate risks could save lives. [...]

2022-03-21

• Worker-Firm Screening and the Business Cycle
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-21 21:42:49 UTC

  By Jake Bradley http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15017&r=dge There has been a substantial body of work modeling the co-movement of employment, vacancies, and output over the business cycle. This paper builds on this literature, and informed by empirical investigation, models worker and firm search and hiring behavior in a manner consistent with recent micro-evidence. Consistent with empirical findings, for a given vacancy, a firm receives many applicants, and chooses their preferred candidate amongst the set. Similarly, workers in both unemployment and employment, can evaluate many op [...]

2022-03-16

• Other-Regarding Preferences and Redistributive Politics
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2022-03-16 09:55:15 UTC

  By: Fehr, Ernst (University of Zurich); Epper, Thomas (University of Lille); Senn, Julien (University of Zuri). Abstract:Increasing inequality and associated egalitarian sentiments have again put redistribution on the political agenda. Other-regarding preferences may also affect support for redistribution, but knowledge about their distribution in the broader population and how they are associated with political support for redistributive policies is still scarce. In this paper, we take advantage of Swiss direct democracy, where people voted several times on strongly redistributiv [...]

• Cuidado con aquellos que nos digan que hay que aprovechar las subidas recientes de bolsa para vender
  by Alejandro Nieto González in Elblogsalmon, 2022-03-16 08:01:27 UTC

  Llevamos un inicio de año relativamente malo en cuanto a inversión bursátil se refiere . Ya veníamos de un final de año bajista, pero la invasión de Ucrania por parte de Rusia ha complicado todo aún más. Añade incertidumbre a la recuperación económica post-covid y esto hace que las valoraciones de las empresas sean menores. Algunos anuncian que lo ideal es estar fuera del mercado y aprovechar alguna subida que ha habido recientemente para vender. Es decir, algunos analistas recomiendan intentar hacer market timing . [...]

2022-03-15

• On the Inefficiency of Non-Competes in Low-Wage Labor Markets
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-15 15:08:47 UTC

  By Bart Hobijn, André Kurmann and Tristan Potter http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:93658&r=dge We study the efficiency of non-compete agreements (NCAs) in an equilibrium model of labor turnover. The model is consistent with empirical studies showing that NCAs reduce turnover, average wages, and wage dispersion for low-wage workers. But the model also predicts that NCAs, by reducing turnover, raise recruitment and employment. We show that optimal NCA policy: (i) is characterized by a Hosios like condition that balances the benefits of higher employment against the costs of inefficient con [...]

2022-03-14

• China's Hedge Against Geopolitical Shock
  by Zhang Jun in Project Syndicate, 2022-03-14 15:35:55 UTC

  SHANGHAI – In terms of geopolitical impact, nothing could be more important than the United States’ shift from strategic cooperation to strategic competition with China. This change has darkened many observers’ views of China’s economic prospects, as indicated by a Bruegel report released late last year. The assumption, it seems, is that China has no choice but to retreat from its successful development path and embark on a less prosperous path toward self-reliance, with the state exercising complete control over the economy to hedge against geopolitical shocks. But China’s efforts to bolster [...]

2022-03-12

• Robots and Humans: The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in an Endogenous Growth Model
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-12 17:34:16 UTC

  By Óscar Afonso, Elena Sochirca and Pedro Cunha Neves http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:por:cetedp:2201&r=dge In this paper we develop a dynamic general equilibrium growth model in which robots can replace unskilled labor and: i) the government uses tax revenues to invest in social capital and compensate those who do not work; ii) there is monetary policy with cash-in-advance restrictions that impact, for example, wages; iii) social capital increases skilled-labor productivity and facilitates the technological-knowledge progress. Our results confirm that by reducing the unskilled-to-skilled-labor r [...]

2022-03-11

• Quotation of the Day…
  by Don Boudreaux in Cafe Hayek, 2022-03-11 09:30:00 UTC

  (Don Boudreaux) Tweet … is from page 73 of Israel Kirzner’s March 1992 South African Journal of Economics paper, “ Subjectivism, Freedom and Economic Law ” as this lecture is reprinted in  Austrian Subjectivism and the Emergence of Entrepreneurship Theory , (Peter J. Boettke and Frédéric Sautet, eds., 2015), which is a volume in  The Collected Works of Israel M. Kirzner : The tendency of market outcomes to reflect, at least to some extent, the realities which surround the society of men, derives from the propensity of men shrewdly to size up these uncertainties and to act purposefully to d [...]

2022-03-10

• Consumption taxation to finance pension payments
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-10 17:08:47 UTC

  By Kilian Ruppert, Mattias Schön and Nikolai Stähler http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:472021&r=dge This paper assesses how a permanent shift from financing a public pay-as-you-go pension by direct (labour income) taxation towards financing it by indirect (consumption) taxation affects the economy and welfare. To this end, we use an overlapping-generations-augmented two-region general equilibrium framework with search frictions on the labour market. The analysed tax reform partially shifts the tax burden from domestic to foreign producers and lowers marginal costs of domestic production [...]

2022-03-09

• Redistributive Effect and the Progressivity of Taxes and Benefits: Evidence for the UK, 1977–2018
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2022-03-09 11:11:25 UTC

  By: Herault, Nicolas ; Jenkins, Stephen P. :We apply the Kakwani approach to decomposing redistributive effect into average rate, progressivity, and reranking components using yearly UK data covering 1977–2018. We examine cash and in-kind benefits, and direct and indirect taxes. In addition, we highlight an empirical implementation issue – the definition of the reference (‘pre-fisc’) distribution. Drawing on an innovative counterfactual approach, our empirical analysis shows that trends in the redistributive effect of cash benefits are largely associated with cyclical changes in average be [...]

2022-03-07

• Firm Inattention and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy: A Text-Based Approach
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-07 14:01:13 UTC

  By Wenting Song and Samuel Stern http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-3&r=dge This paper provides direct evidence of the importance of firm attention to macro-economic dynamics. We construct a text-based measure of firm attention to macro-economic news and document firm attention that is polarized and countercyclical. Differences in attention lead to asymmetric responses to monetary policy: expansionary monetary shocks raise market values of attentive firms more than those of inattentive firms, and contractionary shocks lower values of attentive firms by less. We use the measure to calib [...]

2022-03-02

• Governing an Ocean of Plastics
  by Raimund Bleischwitz in Project Syndicate, 2022-03-02 12:50:48 UTC

  BREMEN – Images of plastic pollution in the ocean and on beaches are now commonplace, and the problem is likely to get worse. Last week, the OECD’s first Global Plastics Outlook revealed a dramatic increase in the plastic waste leaked into aquatic environments. That report came only a month after the World Wildlife Fund for Nature released a study that projects a doubling of microplastics in the ocean over the next few decades. While there are promising innovations that extract plastic from the ocean or intercept it in rivers, these projects will barely make a dent in the amount of plastic [...]

2022-03-01

• Sanzioni economiche: il diavolo è nei dettagli
  by Stagista 2 in La Voce, 2022-03-01 09:07:12 UTC

  Le sanzioni sono uno strumento di coercizione politica che utilizza la leva economica. Quelle approvate nel 2014 contro Mosca hanno dato pochi risultati perché sono state aggirate. Oggi le misure sono mirate a obiettivi specifici, ma il pericolo resta. Evoluzione ed efficacia delle sanzioni economiche Le sanzioni economiche rappresentano importanti strumenti di politica estera che si frappongono tra simboliche azioni politico-diplomatiche (come il ritiro degli ambasciatori e delle delegazioni nazionali) e strumenti molto coercitivi, come il conflitto armato. Le sanzioni poggiano [...]

2022-02-28

• New and Novel ARCH Model Appication (Seriously)
  by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations, 2022-02-28 12:22:00 UTC

    The Variability and Volatility of Sleep: An Archetypal Approach By: Hamermesh, Daniel S.  (Barnard College);  Pfann, Gerard A.  (Maastricht University) Abstract: Using Dutch time-diary data from 1975-2005 covering over 10,000 respondents for 7 consecutive days each, we show that individuals' sleep time exhibits both variability and volatility characterized by stationary autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity: The absolute values of deviations from a person's average sleep on one day are positively correlated with those on the next day. Sleep is more variable on weekends and among peop [...]

• Long-Memory Neural Nets
  by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations, 2022-02-28 12:12:00 UTC

    Fractional SDE-Net: Generation of Time Series Data with Long-term Memory By: Kohei Hayashi ;  Kei Nakagawa Abstract: In this paper, we focus on generation of time-series data using neural networks. It is often the case that input time-series data, especially taken from real financial markets, is irregularly sampled, and its noise structure is more complicated than i.i.d. type. To generate time series with such a property, we propose fSDE-Net: neural fractional Stochastic Differential Equation Network. It generalizes the neural SDE model by using fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index la [...]

2022-02-22

• Information impact on Market Performance
  by Inaki Villanueva in Applied economist, 2022-02-22 09:44:00 UTC

  I realized I never mentioned� this famous paper �( or here ) in this blog.� The idea that the availability of more information increases agents' wellbeing has always been theoretically sound.� Jensen, on this paper, used a key technological event to prove the theory empirically.� "When information is limited or costly, agents are unable to engage in optimal arbitrage. Excess price dispersion across markets can arise, and goods may not be allocated efficiently. In this setting, information technologies may improve market performance and increase welfare. Between 1997 and 2001, mobile phone serv [...]

2022-02-12

• Deep Recurrent Neural Nets with Long Short Term Memory
  by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations, 2022-02-12 13:01:00 UTC

   Again.  LTSM may be emerging as very big deal in recurrent NN modeling.  I blogged on it before (e.g. here ) but I still don't understand it deeply.  Does anyone? Maybe it's just a device for avoiding the vanishing-gradient problem (not that that isn't important); maybe it's more. This new paper is very well done and features LSTM prominently. The DONUT Approach to EnsembleCombination Forecasting By: Lars Lien Ankile ;  Kjartan Krange Abstract: This paper presents an ensemble forecasting method that shows strong results on the M4Competition dataset by decreasing feature and model selection as [...]

2022-02-09

• Online tutoring helps — a little
  by Joanne in Linking and Thinking on Education by Joanne Jacobs, 2022-02-09 16:30:15 UTC

  U.S. Education Secretary Miguel Cardona wants schools to provide 30 minutes of tutoring, three times a week to every student who’s fallen behind during the pandemic. That sort of intensive tutoring has proven to be effective — and logistically challenging. And expensive. Photo: Julia M. Cameron/Pexels Can online tutoring help “Covid kids” catch up? Ed Week ‘s Stephen Sawchuk reports on a new  study that finds signs of hope. Benefits were slight, but researchers believe “more tutoring time would have yielded stronger results,” writes Sawchuk. Students who got the most tutoring made the most pro [...]

2022-02-07

• Electricity and Firm Productivity: A General-Equilibrium Approach
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-02-07 17:39:56 UTC

  By Stephie Fried and David Lagakos http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9490&r=dge Many policymakers view power outages as a major constraint on firm productivity in developing countries. Yet empirical studies find modest short-run effects of outages on firm performance. This paper builds a dynamic macroeconomic model to study the long-run general-equilibrium effects of power outages on productivity. Outages lower productivity in the model by creating idle resources, depressing the scale of incumbent firms and reducing entry of new firms. Consistent with the empirical literature, the mode [...]

• Affordable housing
  by noreply@blogger.com (Urbanomics) in Urbanomics, 2022-02-07 00:25:00 UTC

  Affordable housing in cities is one of the biggest public policy challenges facing us. Apart from being the biggest expenditure in a typical household budget, it's also the most important determinant in many things in our lives - where we live, what our job is, and how we live. It determines the fates and fortunes of cities, regions, and even countries. And it's also the main contributor to one of the biggest problems facing us, inequality, ...  housing inequality, not income inequality, primarily determines how much wealth inequality there is  in most Western countries. Striking snippet about [...]

2022-02-06

• Monetary Policy and Endogenous Financial Crises
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-02-06 04:40:28 UTC

  By Fabrice Collard, Frédéric Boissay, Jordi Galì and Cristina Manea http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:126275&r=dge We study whether a central bank should deviate from its objective of price stability to promote financial stability. We tackle this question within a textbook New Keynesian model augmented with capital accumulation and microfounded endogenous financial crises. We compare several interest rate rules, under which the central bank responds more or less forcefully to inflation and aggregate output. Our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy affects the probability [...]

2022-02-01

• Why women’s leadership is key to climate action
  by ? in Forum:Blog, 2022-02-01 12:18:47 UTC

  Despite being underrepresented in climate leadership, women and girls are crucial in the work to achieve more effective and equitable climate outcomes. [...]

2022-01-28

• I robot fanno studiare di più
  by Segugio 1 in La Voce, 2022-01-28 10:38:46 UTC

  L’automazione dei processi produttivi cambia il mercato del lavoro. Offre anche opportunità. Ma le competenze necessarie a svolgere le nuove professioni sono diverse da quelle dei lavoratori attuali. E i giovani rispondono iscrivendosi all’università. Robot e il mercato del lavoro Sull’impatto delle nuove tecnologie sul mercato del lavoro il dibattito è aperto ormai da diversi anni, alimentato dalla crescente preoccupazione che molte delle mansioni svolte dagli esseri umani possano essere automatizzate . I robot industriali sono senza dubbio tra le tecnologie di automazione che n [...]

2022-01-26

• Les agents économiques répondent-ils vraiment aux incitations ?
  by Thomas Renault in Contrepoints, 2022-01-26 03:30:43 UTC

    L’ane de Buridan entre deux opinions LACMA credits Ashley Van Haeften (CC BY 2.0)   Eh voilà, c’est la rentrée ! J’ai endossé hier après-midi mon costume de super-héros (enfin une veste quoi !) afin d’enseigner l’économie à une armée de nouveaux étudiants assoiffés de connaissance. Et comme chaque année, après une introduction classique « blablabla l’économie c’est cool » , le cours commence sur les 10 principes de l’Économie, chapitre issu de l’ouvrage Economics  de Mankiw et Taylor. Et là arrive le quatrième principe : « les agents économiques répondent aux incitations » . En économie, un [...]

2022-01-25

• Typo in Directed Technical Change and the British Industrial Revolution
  by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2022-01-25 22:58:00 UTC

  I hate reading my papers after they're published as there is usually some mistake somewhere. Unfortunately, I have to read them to do more research. I just found a typo in our 2021 paper in JAERE . Equation (8) should look like this: In the published paper, there is a missing Gamma in the second term.� I also noticed a couple of issues in the text of " Energy quality " published in Ecological Economics in 2010. One is in the introduction and is debatable: "Fuel and energy quality is not neccessarily fixed". This should be or instead of and or are instead of is. But it really isn't important. T [...]

• Reddito delle donne: sempre un passo indietro agli uomini
  by Massimo Taddei in La Voce, 2022-01-25 09:04:38 UTC

  Il Bilancio di genere presentato dalla Ragioneria generale dello stato mostra una forte disuguaglianza tra i redditi di uomini e donne, anche nelle fasce più alte. E il sistema fiscale non incentiva la partecipazione delle donne al mercato del lavoro. La distribuzione diseguale dei redditi Il Bilancio di genere 2020 , pubblicato a gennaio 2022 dalla Ragioneria generale dello stato, è un importante strumento per fare il punto sulla posizione delle donne italiane nell’economia e nella società e su come le politiche pubbliche influenzano i divari di genere. La pubblicazione del documen [...]

2022-01-24

• Some long-term observations before the Federal Reserve will change the overnight rate
  by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2022-01-24 16:26:00 UTC

  Five years ago, we wrote in this blog about the strict proportionality between the CPI inflation and the actual interest rate defined by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, R . Briefly, the cumulative interest rate is just the cumulative CPI times 1.4. There are periods when the interest rate deviates from the long-term inflation trend, which has been almost linear since 1972. Here, we extend the observational dataset and discuss the most probable reason why the FRS actually not control inflation by presenting the actual economic force behind price inflation, as we presented [...]

• Revisions to employment data during 2020 and 2021 : Reassessing labor market conditions after the 2020 recession
  by ? in FRED blog, 2022-01-24 14:00:00 UTC

  The FRED Blog recently featured an ALFRED graph to discuss a revision to the methodology used by Realtor.com to report housing inventory data. Today, we return once more to ALFRED, the archive of historical versions (or vintages) of FRED data, to discuss revisions to employment data. The ALFRED graph above shows 12 different vintages of total nonfarm employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The graph doesn’t display the legend, to leave more room for the data ( graph with legends ). The solid black line shows, as of January 7, 2022, the monthly changes in total nonfarm employ [...]

2022-01-23

• The Consequences of Banks Pursuing a "Double Bottom Line" as the Federal Reserve Prioritizes Climate Change Risks
  by Matthew E. Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2022-01-23 12:55:00 UTC

  �China features state owned enterprises (SOEs) that pursue a "double bottom line".� They simultaneously seek to earn profit and to please the powerful Central Government.� Relative to their private sector counterparts, these Chinese SOE firms receive special treatment. They can often access subsidized energy, land and capital.� Facing such low factor prices such firms use more resources and this creates distortions because the opportunity cost of one firm using scarce resources is that another more productive firm does not use those resources. Macroeeconomists continue to study the implication [...]

2022-01-19

• How Ted Cruz Engineered a Supreme Court Case To Recoup a Half-Million Dollars
  by ? in Slate Blogs, 2022-01-19 20:36:37 UTC

  The Republican-appointed justices appear eager to carve a new loophole in campaign finance law. [...]

2022-01-18

• 47. World Development Reports 2021: The role of Education on economic development and quality of life
  by MCG Blogs de Economía in Euro-American Association: World Development, 2022-01-18 19:51:00 UTC

  � � � � World Development Reports published by the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies in year 2021. The reports, as well as other interesting publications are free downloadable at our Website and from Dialnet and Ideas-Repec. 1) Report published in the journal Applied Econometrics and International Development, Volume 21-2 of year 2021. World Development For 1995-2020: �Econometric Relationships Of Human Capital, Development, Quality Of Government And Life Satisfaction In 164 Countries, �Guisan, M.C ��� Abstract �We highlight the following table from that report: � � � � [...]

• Inequalities in the Distribution of National Institutes of Health Research Project Grant Funding
  by ? in NIH Extramural Nexus, 2022-01-18 17:02:15 UTC

  Introduction In its Fall 2020 edition the Journal of Economic Perspectives featured articles on income and wealth inequality. There is ample evidence that in the United States and in Europe inequality has increased over the last 40-50 years. While the fact [...]

2022-01-17

• 46. Informe 2021 de Cooperación al Desarrollo de África: producción, educación y calidad de vida,1995-2020. Revista RSES.
  by MCG Blogs de Economía in Asociación de Estudios Euro-Americanos: Desarrollo internacional de América, Europa y otras áreas, 2022-01-17 19:56:00 UTC

  Informe sobre África 2021:    Industry, Education, Development and Quality Of Life In 53 African Countries, 1995-2020,  Guisan, M.C., Exposito, P.   Abstract Publicado en Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies PÁGINA EN ELABORACIÓN: EN ENERO DE 2022 INCLUIREMOS ALGUNAS DE LAS PRINCIPALES CONCLUSIONES DEL INFORME DE COOPERACIÓN CON EL DESARROLLO DE ÁFRICA.   [...]

2022-01-14

• Riformare il sistema fiscale europeo: la gestione del debito
  by Massimo Taddei in La Voce, 2022-01-14 23:03:51 UTC

  Negli ultimi anni, si è sempre più diffusa l’idea che le regole del Patto di stabilità e crescita siano datate. Una proposta per modificarle basata su due pilastri: la revisione delle regole fiscali e la creazione di un’Agenzia europea del debito. In un precedente contributo , abbiamo illustrato la nostra recente proposta sulla modifica delle regole fiscali del patto di stabilità e crescita. In questo articolo, presentiamo la seconda parte di questa proposta: il piano di spostare una parte del debito pubblico dei paesi Ue sotto l’ombrello di una Agenzia europea del debito ( European De [...]

2022-01-12

• Does Inattentiveness Matter for DSGE Modelling? An Empirical Investigation
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-01-12 23:47:59 UTC

  By Jenyu Chou, Joshy Easaw and Patrick Minford http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2021/35&r=dge The purpose of this paper is to investigate the empirical performance of the standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in its usual form with full-information rational expectations and compare it with versions assuming inattentiveness- namely sticky information and imperfect information data revision. Using a Bayesian estimation approach on US quarterly data (both realtime and survey) from 1969 to 2015, we find that the model with sticky information fits best an [...]

2022-01-11

• Inflation Heresies
  by Dani Rodrik in Project Syndicate, 2022-01-11 09:35:32 UTC

  CAMBRIDGE – The specter of inflation is once again stalking the world, after a long period of dormancy during which policymakers were more likely to be preoccupied by price deflation. Now, old debates have resurfaced on how best to restore price stability. Should policymakers step on the monetary and fiscal brakes, by reducing spending and raising interest rates – the orthodox approach to fighting inflation? Should they instead move in the opposite direction by lowering interest rates, a route followed by Turkey’s central bank under the direction of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan? Or should [...]

2022-01-07

• The ‘China Shock’ of Trade in the 2000s Reverberates in US Politics and Economics
  by ? in Naked Capitalism, 2022-01-07 14:55:32 UTC

  Belatedly learning from how trade losses to China damaged communities to determine how to shore them up. [...]

2022-01-04

• Financial Constraints, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and the Cyclicality of Investment
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-01-04 16:55:53 UTC

  By Cooper Howes http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:93095&r=dge While investment in most sectors declines in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock, investment in the manufacturing sector increases. Using manually digitized aggregate income and balance sheet data for the universe of U.S. manufacturing firms, I show this increase is driven by the types of firms that are least likely to be financially constrained. A two-sector New Keynesian model with financial frictions can match these facts; unconstrained firms are able to take advantage of the decline in the user cost of capit [...]

• How Do We Nudge "Behavioral" Decision Makers to Adapt to Emerging Climate Risks?
  by Matthew E. Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2022-01-04 14:57:00 UTC

  �An excellent new NBER Working Paper t itled "Mandated vs. Voluntary Adaptation to Natural Disasters: The Case of U.S Wildfires" has been published.� The authors have assembled a great data set to document that building codes cause upgrades of properties such that subsequent wildfires cause lower damage to property.� This is a highly optimistic adaptation paper and it puts Government at the center of achieving adaptation progress.� The authors argue that building codes are a binding constraint such that in the absence of this constraint that people would have chosen to build lower quality stru [...]

2021-12-31

• The impact of U.S. employer-sponsored insurance in the 20th century
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2021-12-31 18:46:13 UTC

  By Vegard Nygaard and Gajendran Raveendranathan http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2021-11&r=dge The introduction of employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) in the 1940s led to the largest decline in the uninsurance rate in U.S. history. To study the fiscal and welfare implications of this insurance expansion, we endogenize the selection of workers into jobs with and without ESI in a general equilibrium life-cycle model where consumers face idiosyncratic health shocks. Our model rationalizes non-targeted empirical patterns related to ESI coverage between 1940 and 2010 and in recent cross-secti [...]

2021-12-30

• Annual Review 2021
  by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2021-12-30 06:11:00 UTC

  I've been doing these annual reviews since 2011. They're mainly an exercise for me to see what I accomplished and what I didn't in the previous year.� This was the first year since I have been back living in Canberra in 2007 that I spent the entire year in the Canberra region. In fact, it is the first year since 1991 that I didn't fly on a plane. It's not that unusual for me not to leave my country for a year. I didn't travel outside of Australia in 2019. This year, with a two year old and random snap lockdowns happening in the first part of the year, we were not in the mood to travel anywhere [...]

2021-12-27

• On the relationship between unemployment and late credit card payments
  by ? in FRED blog, 2021-12-27 14:00:00 UTC

  The first shaded region on the FRED graph above indicates the 2008-09 Great Recession. In that recession, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (red line, right axis) nearly doubled from 5% in December 2007 to 9.5% in June 2009. At the same time, seasonally adjusted credit card delinquency rates (blue line, left axis) increased from 4.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007 to 6.8% in second quarter of 2009. In short, as workers became unemployed, some stopped making on-time credit card payments. Research by  Athreya, Sánchez, Tam, and Young (2015) shows how this relationship can emerge in a mod [...]

2021-12-24

• Unintended Effects From the Expansion of the Non-Contributory Health System in Peru
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2021-12-24 03:45:02 UTC

  By Jonas Nauerz and Jose Torres http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/106&r=dge Over the last two decades, the Peruvian government has made great efforts to improve access to health care by significantly augmenting the coverage of the non-contributory public health care system Seguro Integral de Salud (SIS). This expansion has a positive impact on welfare and public health indicators, as it limits the risk of catastrophic health-related costs for previously uninsured individuals and allows for the appropriate treatment of illnesses. However, it also entails some unintended consequences [...]

2021-12-21

• Around the halls: Built environment issues that could define 2022
  by Newsha Ajami, Alex Berke, Rushaine Goulbourne, Noah Kazis, Elizabeth Kneebone, Anika Singh Lemar, Blair Levin, Robert Puentes, Gian Claudia Sciara, Evan Siddall, Christopher Severen, Jan Whittington in The Avenue, 2021-12-21 17:27:32 UTC

  By Newsha Ajami, Alex Berke, Rushaine Goulbourne, Noah Kazis, Elizabeth Kneebone, Anika Singh Lemar, Blair Levin, Robert Puentes, Gian Claudia Sciara, Evan Siddall, Christopher Severen, Jan Whittington For the nation’s infrastructure and built environment, 2021 felt like a year of extremes. Extreme weather events such as Hurricane Ida, western wildfires, and recently, the Kentucky tornados made the effects of climate change harder to ignore. Housing prices and rents rose precipitously , driven by strong demand, pandemic-related supply constraints, and policy choices . The digital divide persis [...]

• Così le famiglie hanno risposto alla chiusura delle scuole*
  by Segugio 1 in La Voce, 2021-12-21 09:01:08 UTC

  La chiusura delle scuole durante la pandemia potrebbe avere conseguenze di lungo periodo sui divari di genere. Disoccupate o in smart working, sono state quasi sempre le donne a occuparsi dei figli in Dad. Anche l’aiuto dei nonni è stato rilevante. Sostegni nel periodo di Dad Durante la pandemia da Covid-19, la sospensione della didattica in presenza ha interessato tutte le aree del paese e tutti gli ordini di scuola, sebbene con diversa intensità . Gli effetti sugli apprendimenti degli studenti sono stati considerevoli, soprattutto nelle zone e nei cicli scolastici in cui la didatt [...]

• Estimating the Effect of Physical Infrastructure on Economic Growth
  by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2021-12-21 00:00:00 UTC

  I have a new working paper coauthored with Govinda Timilsina of the World Bank and my PhD student Debasish Das . It is a panel data study of the effect of various forms of infrastructure on the level of GDP.  Compared to existing studies, we use more recent data, include new types of infrastructure such as mobile phones, and provide separate estimates for developing and developed countries. We find larger effects than most previous studies. We also find that infrastructure has a larger effect in more recent years (1992-2017) than in earlier years (1970-1991), and the effects of infrastructure [...]

2021-12-20

• No Regret Fiscal Reforms
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2021-12-20 17:29:10 UTC

  By Pierre-Édouard Collignon http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2021-20&r=dge How should fiscal policy react to shocks ex-post while preserving incentives to work and save ex-ante? The standard solution involves a commitment to a contingent policy, whereby the initial government sets all the policies for all future states of the world. Contingent policies are unrealistic. As an alternative, I introduce ”No Regret Fiscal Reforms”: the government has the discretion to change its fiscal policy provided households do not regret their past decisions. Hence flexibility is provided and incentives [...]

2021-12-19

• 360. Potential farmer responses to extreme prices for nitrogen fertiliser
  by David Pannell in Pannell Discussions, 2021-12-19 12:29:18 UTC

  For various reasons, the current price of nitrogen fertiliser is sky high. How should farmers respond? Crop farmers in Australia are currently ordering the inputs needed for sowing their crops in about April next year. They are particularly grappling with how much nitrogen (N) fertilizer to order, given that it currently costs two to three times as much as it cost them for the 2021 season. One obviously sensible option is to reduce the rates of N fertiliser that are applied to crops. Figure 1 shows how N fertiliser price affects the relationship between N rate and profit for a particular examp [...]

2021-12-18

• The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier: Population Aging and the Risk Premium
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2021-12-18 17:50:02 UTC

  By Joseph Kopecky and Alan Taylor http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1220&r=dge Population aging has been linked to global declines in real interest rates. A similar trend is seen for equity risk premia, which are on the rise. An existing literature can explain part of the declining trend in safe rates using demographics, but has no mechanism to speak to trends in relative returns on different assets. We calibrate a heterogeneous agent life-cycle model with equity markets and aggregate risk, and we show that aging demographics can simultaneously account for both the majority of a downw [...]

2021-12-08

• Clear, consistent and inclusive ECB communication
  by nadine in Eco Notepad, 2021-12-08 15:09:30 UTC

  Published on 12/09/2021 By Katrin Assenmacher, Gabriel Glöckler, Sarah Holton, Klodiana Istrefi, Adrian Penalver To ensure public understanding and trust, the ECB has to explain better what it does to all the people it serves. With these goals in mind, the Governing Council modernised its communication in July 2021, to have a stronger influence on interest rates and inflation expectations. The ECB will also listen more to citizens’ economic concerns. billet_244_ve.pdf Chart 1: High support for the euro; the recovery of trust in ECB is slow Source: Eurobarometer.  Notes: Net trust [...]

• Flight-free: What Swedish views on travel might tell us about the future
  by ? in Forum:Blog, 2021-12-08 14:53:56 UTC

  In Sweden, 80% of national flight emissions are caused by leisure and holiday travel, but new research shows a shift in the views on holidays by plane. [...]

• Vers une communication claire, cohérente et inclusive pour la BCE
  by aurelie.dossantos in Bloc-Notes Eco, 2021-12-08 14:40:26 UTC

  Publié le 09/12/2021 Par Katrin Assenmacher , Gabriel Glöckler , Sarah Holton , Klodiana Istrefi , Adrian Penalver Pour garantir la compréhension et la confiance du grand public, la BCE doit mieux expliquer ses activités. Dans cette optique, en juillet 2021, le Conseil des gouverneurs a modernisé sa communication afin d’avoir une plus forte influence sur les anticipations de taux d’intérêt et d’inflation. La BCE va également être davantage à l’écoute des préoccupations économiques des citoyens. billet_244_vf.pdf Graphique 1 : Soutien élevé en faveur de l’euro et redressement lent de la c [...]

2021-12-07

• A Consolidated-by-Nationality Approach to Irish Foreign Exposure
  by The Irish Economy in The Irish Economy, 2021-12-07 13:45:38 UTC

  Andre Sanchez Pacheco (Trinity College Dublin) How exposed is Ireland to foreign shocks? Relying on residence-based measures of foreign holdings to answer this question can be challenging. These statistics are obscured by the vast presence of Special Purpose Entities (SPEs) in the country. In residence-based statistics, foreign assets and liabilities are sorted according to the residence of the immediate counterparts. Consequently, the cross-border positions held by these Irish-resident financial intermediaries appear in Ireland’s external balance sheet. However, these entities frequently [...]

2021-12-06

• 357. BCA criticisms 2: “too much uncertainty”
  by David Pannell in Pannell Discussions, 2021-12-06 15:00:25 UTC

  Number 2 in my series on criticisms of Benefit: Cost Analysis (BCA) addresses the concern that it is not feasible to do a BCA on projects for which we lack good information. Sometimes people are concerned that we are just too uncertain about the details for it to be sensible to do a BCA. (There is a video version of the post below, if you prefer.) It’s true that there often is a high level of uncertainty about the numbers that would be needed to complete a BCA. For example, we might have weak evidence about how effective the project would be at generating the intended benefits, or we might not [...]

• Igersheim on Rawls and economics
  by Mark D. White in Economics and Ethics, 2021-12-06 13:00:00 UTC

  By Mark D. White A new working paper from Herrade Igersheim (BETA, University of Strasbourg, CNRS, University of Lorraine) titled " Rawls and the Economists: The (Im)possible Dialogue " offers a unique perspective on the relationship between the great philosopher and the field that would adopt his thinking. From the abstract: Although falling within the scope of political and moral philosophy, it is well known that A Theory of Justice has also had a great impact on economists. As such, Rawls put great emphasis on his desire to combine economics and philosophy, and particularly t [...]

• Anche l’istruzione protegge dal Covid-19
  by Saodiatou in La Voce, 2021-12-06 10:37:42 UTC

  Nella prima ondata, il coronavirus è stato meno letale nei comuni dove il livello di istruzione è più alto. Forse in quelle zone le persone si sono protette meglio perché in grado di valutare l’attendibilità delle informazioni in circolazione. Le differenze nella diffusione del Covid-19 Il Covid-19 ha colpito i comuni italiani in modo diverso. Le maggiori differenze si osservano tra Nord e Centro-Sud (figura 1). Tuttavia, anche confrontando municipi all’interno della stessa macroarea, si vedono importanti differenze nella gravità della pandemia. Che cosa spiega queste differenze? [...]

2021-12-04

• Some Covid Links
  by Don Boudreaux in Cafe Hayek, 2021-12-04 12:32:56 UTC

  (Don Boudreaux) Tweet UnHerd ‘s Freddie Sayers talks to a former prisoner of Australia’s Covid-internment camp . Here’s the abstract of a new paper by Daron Acemoglu, Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Werning, and Michael D. Whinston – a paper which lends a good deal of support (without mentioning it) to the spirit of the great Great Barrington Declaration) : (HT Ian Fillmore) We study targeted lockdowns in a multigroup SIR model where infection, hospitalization, and fatality rates vary between groups—in particular between the “young,” the “middle-aged,” and the “old.” Our model enables a tractabl [...]

• Comprendre les coûts de l’inflation monétaire
  by Marius-Joseph Marchetti in Contrepoints, 2021-12-04 03:50:27 UTC

  Par Marius-Joseph Marchetti. À une époque où l’inflation repointe dangereusement le bout de son nez, du moins plus qu’à l’accoutumée, il me semble opportun de nous intéresser aux coûts que peut faire subir l’inflation monétaire à travers la recension de deux articles. Je passe outre la distinction de savoir si l’inflation que nous connaissons est une inflation monétaire ( monetary-driven ), ou une inflation par les coûts, causés par les différentes restrictions des États ( costs-driven ). Il va sans dire que la réponse est probablement à mi-chemin entre ces deux options. Mais revenons au sujet [...]

2021-12-03

• Welfare Costs of Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from the 1972 Okinawa Reversion
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2021-12-03 15:21:14 UTC

  By Kazuko Kano and Takashi Kano http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2021cf1179&r=dge The main tenet of the New Keynesian (NK) paradigm is that price dispersion caused by nominal price stickiness is the primary source of allocative inefficiency. This study empirically evaluates the welfare implications of NK models by observing how internal and external price dispersion responds to two types of large aggregate shocks: high inflation and sharp currency depreciation. For this purpose, we consider the history of US military deployment on a small southern island in Japan called Okinawa followin [...]

2021-11-29

• Bank branch density and economic development
  by ? in FRED blog, 2021-11-29 14:00:00 UTC

  An important component in the development of an economy is for the population to be “banked”—that is, to have a bank account to save money and participate in the payment system. One indicator of the amount of banked people in a location (e.g., a state or country) used to be the number of bank branches in that location. The FRED graph above shows this statistic for a non-random set of countries: Mongolia, the United States, and Nigeria. If this statistic is in some way representative of economic development, why is the number of bank branches in Mongolia so much higher than in the United State [...]

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