The latest posts by language: All en cn de dk ee eo es fi fr gr hr hu id ir it jp nl no pl pt ro rs ru se si sk tr vn

EconAcademics.org

Blog aggregator for economics research

2022-08-12

• Japan’s low inflation conundrum
  by Gunther Schnabl in East Asia Forum, 2022-08-12 12:00:39 UTC

  Author: Gunther Schnabl, Leipzig University Inflation rates have risen far above the targets of many central banks around the world, reaching 9.1 per cent in the United States and 8.6 per cent in the euro area in June 2022. Yet Japan has bucked this phenomenon by maintaining surprisingly low inflation rates, sitting at 2.4 per cent in June 2022. For many years, Japan’s inflation rate has been well below other industrialised countries even though the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet has grown much faster than the balance sheets of most other central banks. Inflation is generally caused by centra [...]

• How India Can Sustain Rapid Economic Growth
  by Barry Eichengreen in Project Syndicate, 2022-08-12 10:45:03 UTC

  NEW DELHI – One country stands out from the gloomy overall tone of the International Monetary Fund’s recent update  of its World Economic Outlook . Against the backdrop of tepid 3.2% global growth in 2022, the IMF expects India’s GDP to expand by 7.4%. This is the fastest growth of any large economy except Saudi Arabia, which is the incidental beneficiary of upward pressure on global oil prices from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine. India may be buying Russian crude at a discount, but, as the world’s third largest oil importer, it is still burdened by high oil prices. O [...]

2022-08-09

• 48. La investigación económica en América Latina, Estados Unidos y España en 2001-2022: publicaciones destacadas y representación femenina
  by MCG Blogs de Economía in Asociación de Estudios Euro-Americanos: Desarrollo internacional de América, Europa y otras áreas, 2022-08-09 17:30:00 UTC

    En el Documento nº 125 de la Serie Economic Development del Equipo de Econometría de la Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, se ha publicado el siguiente estudio, disponible de forma gratuita en Ideas.Repec:  Guisán, M.C. (2021).   La Investigacion De Economía En España, América Latina Y Estados Unidos: Representación Femenina Y Publicaciones Destacadas. Documento nº 125 de la Serie Economic Development Próximamente resumiremos algunos de los datos más destacados de dicho estudio y también la lista de autores más destacados en Julio de 2022 en la base Ideas.Repec. [...]

2022-08-08

• Are we in a recession (yet)? : Consulting Chauvet and Piger’s smoothed probabilities
  by ? in FRED blog, 2022-08-08 13:00:00 UTC

  It’s natural to want to know where you stand in the economy and get ahead of any big changes. It’s no surprise, then, that we’re hearing plenty of talk about whether the U.S. economy is in a recession. As usual, we begin our inquiry with FRED data! The graph above displays, month after month, the estimated probabilities that the U.S. economy is in recession. These estimates are calculated from a set of economic statistics discussed in this article . The FRED graph also conveniently displays shaded bars when actual recessions occurred, as determined by the NBER business cycle dating committee. [...]

2022-08-01

• Travel chaos, flight fees, and labor shortages could get even worse in October when airlines can start buying their own stocks again, according to the president of the flight attendants' union
  by insider@insider.com (Juliana Kaplan) in Business Insider, 2022-08-01 16:06:46 UTC

  Flight delays and cancellations will likely continue throughout the summer, analysts told Insider. James D. Morgan/Getty Images Travel chaos has abounded this summer, as passengers deal with delays, cancellations, and lost luggage. Sara Nelson, international president of the Association of Flight Attendants, warns that could get even worse. In the fall, airlines can start buying their own stocks again — potentially leading to higher fees and fewer staff. If you've even thought about boarding a plane this summer, you've probably heard the tales of travel chaos. Passengers are getting hit with d [...]

• Does purchasing power parity (PPP) hold in the long run? : A look at the franc/dollar exchange rate on the Swiss national holiday
  by ? in FRED blog, 2022-08-01 13:00:00 UTC

  Part of the “My favorite FRED graph” guest post series. “Under the skin of any international economist lies a deep-seated belief in some variant of the PPP theory of the exchange rate.” — Dornbusch and Krugman (1976) Most models in international macroeconomics assume purchasing power parity (PPP) holds in the long run. But what is PPP and what is the long run? A good starting point is the law of one price (LOP), which states that the same good in different competitive markets must sell for the same price, when transportation costs and barriers between those markets are not important. Intuitiv [...]

2022-07-29

• Transmission of Flood Damage to the Real Economy and Financial Intermediation: Simulation Analysis using a DSGE Model
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-07-29 13:32:36 UTC

  By Ryuichiro Hashimoto and Nao Sudo http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp22e05&r=dge This paper quantitatively assesses the indirect effect of floods on the real economy and financial intermediation in Japan by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that incorporates a mechanism through which floods cause the capital stock and the public infrastructure to depreciate exogenously, using the data on flood damage recorded in the Flood Statistics released by the Japanese government. The result of the analysis is twofold. First, flood shocks dampen GDP from the supply [...]

2022-07-27

• Should the Federal Govt "split" its cloud computing contracts?
  by noreply@blogger.com (Luke Froeb) in Managerial Econ, 2022-07-27 17:08:00 UTC

  WSJ Reports :   Amazon  dominates the cloud-infrastructure industry  with a 39% share of the 2021 global market ahead of Microsoft at No. 2 with a 21% share, according to research firm  Gartner  Inc. ...   Microsoft has grown frustrated about its lack of progress selling its Azure cloud services to the U.S. federal government with its rival’s Amazon Web Services continuing to win most of those contracts, said some of the people familiar with its efforts.  ...     Microsoft  Corp.   is rallying other big name  cloud-computing providers  such as  Alphabet  Inc.’s   Google and  Oracle  Corp.  to [...]

2022-07-26

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2022-07-26 19:33:05 UTC

  The role of unobservable characteristics in friendship network formation. By: Pablo Brañas-Garza (Universidad de Loyola Andalucia); Lorenzo Ductor (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.); Jaromir Kovarik (‡Universidad del País Vasco UPV/EHU and University of West Bohemia) Abstract: Inbreeding homophily is a prevalent feature of human social networks with important individual and group-level social, economic, and health consequences. The literature has proposed an overwhelming number of dimensions along which human relationships might sort, without pr [...]

2022-07-25

• The big idea: should we be using data to make life’s big decisions?
  by ? in Science news, comment and analysis | theguardian.com, 2022-07-25 11:30:34 UTC

  Faced with tough choices, people usually fall back on gut instinct or seek the advice of friends. Now, there’s an alternativeWhom should you marry? Where should you live? How should you spend your time? For centuries, people have relied on their gut instin [...]

• The futility of economic policy debate
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2022-07-25 09:08:58 UTC

  Sam Bowman writes on the divide between boosters and doomsters - those who believe we can boost economic growth and those who don't. He misses, however, an important point. This is that economic policy is not made by Sam, nor by Giles Wilkes, Stian Westlake, Aaron Batani or Torsten Bell. Policy-making (at least in the UK now) is not a meritocracy in which the people with the best ideas get the most say. Nor of course is it a democracy in which we all have equal say. Instead, a mere glance at the Tory leadership contest (and a mere glance is all any of us can stand) tells us that policy is made [...]

2022-07-24

• Sunday assorted links
  by ? in Marginal Revolution, 2022-07-24 17:33:30 UTC

  1. Timothy Snyder’s argument that Russia is losing. 2. “We provide novel evidence that poor individuals born in countries with high consumption of meat are more likely to show soccer prowess.” 3. Are young people becoming more miserable r [...]

2022-07-14

• Fertility and migration
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-07-14 19:24:09 UTC

  By Arianna Garofalo http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:421web&r=dge Over the past three decades, the drop in fertility rates has been accompanied by high rates of migration in several developing countries. We argue that migration affects fertility negatively in the countries of origin. To analyze the effect of migration we build a fertility choice model, based on De La Croix (2014), with endogenous migration decisions. In this framework, when a member of the household migrates abroad, income increases due to remittances but at the same time, individuals left at home face a much higher opp [...]

• OECD data show less employment for older French folks : Assessing joie de vivre on Bastille Day
  by ? in FRED blog, 2022-07-14 13:00:00 UTC

  Part of the “My favorite FRED graph” guest post series. It’s July 14th, Bastille Day! So the FRED Blog focuses on France, where the retirement age was a central issue in their recent elections. France’s legal retirement age is 62, conditional on time worked. President Emmanuel Macron, who was re-elected in April, prefers raising it to 65. Jean-Luc Mélenchon campaigned on lowering it to 60 as part of the leftist coalition policy proposal. That political debate didn’t include a great deal of data, so we provide some here, including international comparisons. The FRED graph above uses OECD data [...]

2022-07-09

• Global Cultures and Global Variations in Obesity
  by ? in ConscienHealth, 2022-07-09 10:00:52 UTC

  Obesity prevalence is rising all over the world. But in different cultures and different countries, tremendous variations in obesity are striking. Countries of eastern Asia tend to have very low obesity prevalence. Japan, for example, has an obesity rate o [...]

2022-07-05

• 3 examples of post-publication review (ecology, the underground economy, and “lockdowns”)
  by Andrew in Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, 2022-07-05 13:34:22 UTC

  1. Manuel Lerdau writes: This might interest you as an example of a public post-publication review that will, I hope, make a difference. As a bonus, one of the key issues with the original paper is a statistical problem. We have this issue frequently in Ecology (the field, not, in particular, the journal), an over-emphasis on mean values and a corresponding underappreciation of the importance of variability. 2. Asher Meir writes: This should warm your heart: Uncovering errors on measuring the underground economy: Manuel A. Gómez and Adrián Ríos-Blanco uncover problems in the Journal of Mac [...]

2022-07-03

• Measuring financial inclusion: how much do households participate in the formal financial system?
  by x in Ajay Shah's blog, 2022-07-03 05:02:00 UTC

  by Geetika Palta, Mithila A. Sarah and Susan Thomas . Measuring the impact of financial inclusion Households use financial instruments and financial markets to achieve their lifetime objectives. These include being able to smooth consumption over time, being able to withstand shocks, and pursue entrepreneurial opportunities to gain income mobility. Financial inclusion refers to such access to finance for a larger subset of the population (e.g. Rao, 2018 ). Financial policy makers have pursued financial inclusion for many decades. In recent years, the rise of ESG investors has bolstered p [...]

2022-06-28

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2022-06-28 21:07:05 UTC

  https://ideas.repec.org/p/feb/artefa/00755.html [...]

2022-06-27

• Optimal bank capital requirements: What do the macroeconomic models say?
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-06-27 21:17:20 UTC

  By Adam Gulan, Esa Jokivuolle and Fabio Verona http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofecr:22022&r=dge The optimal level of banks’ capital requirements has been a key research topic since at least the introduction of the Basel rules in the late 1980s. In this paper, we review the literature, focusing on recent findings from quantitative structural macroeconomic models. While dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models capture second-round (general equilibrium) effects such as the feedback effects from macroeconomic outcomes back to financial intermediation and the dynamic evolution of the econom [...]

2022-06-23

• Oil and gas prices move together like rockets and feathers
  by ? in FRED blog, 2022-06-23 13:00:00 UTC

  In recent months, U.S. gasoline prices have risen significantly—because of both increased demand and increased production costs. Notably, but not surprisingly, oil prices have also increased. And although oil is a key input in the production of retail gasoline, oil and gas prices don’t always move in tandem. When oil prices shoot upward, gas prices rise with them. And when oil prices fall, gasoline prices also fall; but they can fall at a slower rate. Economists refer to this market dynamic as “asymmetric pass-through.” A more colorful description of the phenomenon is “rockets and feathers.” [...]

2022-06-22

• The Poisson distribution: From basic probability theory to regression models
  by Achim Zeileis in R-bloggers, 2022-06-22 22:00:00 UTC

  [This article was first published on Achim Zeileis , and kindly contributed to R-bloggers ]. (You can report issue about the content on this page here ) Want to share your content on R-bloggers? click here if you have a blog, or here if you don't. Brief introduction to the Poisson distribution for modeling count data using the distributions3 package. The distribution is illustrated using the number of goals scored at the 2018 FIFA World Cup, suitable for self-study or as a classroom exercise. The Poisson distribution The classic basic probability distribution e [...]

• The future of work 2 – working long and hard
  by michael roberts in Michael Roberts Blog, 2022-06-22 14:34:52 UTC

  In the first post of my Future of Work series , I looked at the impact of working from home and remote work which has mushroomed since the COVID pandemic. In this second part, I want to consider the impact of work on people’s lives and health and how that will pan out over the next few decades. Marx once said “The less you eat, drink and buy books; the less you go to the theatre, the dance hall, the public house; the less you think, love, theorize, sing, paint, fence, etc., the more you save—the greater becomes your treasure which neither moths nor rust will devour—your capital. The less y [...]

2022-06-21

• Financer le nucléaire sans argent public et sans démanteler EDF : une solution existe !
  by François Henimann in Contrepoints, 2022-06-21 02:50:13 UTC

  Nous avons montré dans un précédent article que la stratégie énergétique 2050 annoncée par le président de la République relance insuffisamment le nucléaire, et que décarboner de façon compétitive et résiliente l’économie française à l’horizon 2050 nécessite de disposer à cette échéance d’une puissance installée nucléaire de l’ordre de 85 GW (60 à 65 % du mix électrique). EDF est en grande difficulté financière, à cause de la sous-évaluation du prix de vente de l’ARENH (Accès Régulé à l’Électricité Nucléaire Historique), fixé à 42 euros/MWh en 2012, et surtout non réévalué depuis, malgré les c [...]

2022-06-13

• Putin’s War and the German Economic Model
  by Dalia Marin in Project Syndicate, 2022-06-13 12:55:42 UTC

  MUNICH – Will Germany’s economic model survive Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine? As I noted in a recent talk at Harvard University, answering that question requires revisiting recent economic history. Germany’s economy was transformed after the fall of communism in 1989. Liberalization of trade with the country’s eastern neighbors had three profound effects at home . First, it led to decentralized wage bargaining. Second, it had a flattening effect on hierarchical management in German firms. And third, it extended German production networks into Central and Eastern Europe. [...]

2022-06-02

• Educational inequality
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2022-06-02 20:14:05 UTC

  Educational Inequality By: Blanden, Jo (University of Surrey); Doepke, Matthias (Northwestern University); Stuhler, Jan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) Abstract: This chapter provides new evidence on educational inequality and reviews the literature on the causes and consequences of unequal education. We document large achievement gaps between children from different socio-economic backgrounds, show how patterns of educational inequality vary across countries, time, and generations, and establish a link between educational inequality and social mobility. We interpret this evidence fr [...]

• Wellbeing
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2022-06-02 20:03:59 UTC

  By: Richard Layard Abstract: As societies become richer, they do not become happier. This paradox has led to a growing interest in the science of wellbeing, and how policymakers can evaluate policies in terms of what will improve wellbeing. Economists investigate what is important for wellbeing and the influence of wellbeing on working life, education and health. Keywords: Climate Change, Education, Employment, Health, Inequality, Unemployment, Wellbeing, Wages, Happiness, Public Policy URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepins:08&r= [...]

• Confidence Intervals for Recursive Journal Impact Factors
  by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2022-06-02 06:39:00 UTC

  I have a new working paper coauthored with Johannes König and Richard Tol . It's a follow up to my 2013 paper in the Journal of Economic Literature , where I computed standard errors for simple journal impact factors for all economics journals and tried to evaluate whether the differences between journals were significant.* In the new paper, we develop standard errors and confidence intervals for recursive journal impact factors, which take into account that some citations are more prestigious than others, as well as for the associated ranks of journals. We again apply these methods to the all [...]

2022-06-01

• Axel Leijunhufvud, Wide-Ranging Economist
  by Lance Taylor in INET Blog, 2022-06-01 18:31:00 UTC

  An obituary for Axel Leijunhufvud (Sept 6, 1933 - May 5, 2022) Axel Leijunhufvud’s sad passing on May 5 th has rightly stimulated a round of tributes to a thinker of uncommon breadth. But there is perhaps reason to doubt how widely appreciated the diversity of his thinking really was. Leijunhufvud changed the colors of his economic reasoning in response to many strands of 20th-century discussion, repainting each one. He had an ample palette and his color mixes were always interesting – an artist of macroeconomics indeed. Never lacking confidence a [...]

2022-05-31

• A new federal program goes local to accelerate regional innovation
  by Mark Muro in The Avenue, 2022-05-31 18:43:12 UTC

  By Mark Muro One of the most compelling developments of the Biden presidency has been the emergence of significant programs and policies targeted at helping places (and their residents) thrive, rather than people more generally. Proposed across numerous realms , “place-based” programs such as the Economic Development Administration’s Build Back Better Regional Challenge are encouraging bottom-up problem-solving in more and more places, even though the Senate blockage of the Build Back Better Act stymied multiple proposals last winter. Now comes another impressive embrace of place-based policy— [...]

2022-05-23

• Monetary Policy in Disaster-Prone Developing Countries
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-05-23 21:19:06 UTC

  By Chris Papageorgiou, Giovanni Melina, Alessandro Cantelmo and Nikos Fatouros http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/067&r=dge This paper analyzes monetary policy regimes in emerging and developing economies where climate-related natural disasters are major macroeconomic shocks. A narrative analysis of IMF reports published around the occurrence of natural disasters documents their impact on important macroeconomic variables and monetary policy responses. While countries with at least some degree of monetary policy independence typically react by tightening the monetary policy stance, i [...]

• The Persistence of Childhood Poverty in the US
  by ? in Counter Punch, 2022-05-23 08:37:09 UTC

  In the United States, children are more likely to experience poverty than people over 18. In 2020, about 1 in 6 kids, 16% of all children, were living in families with incomes below the official poverty line – an income threshold the government set that ye [...]

2022-05-21

• Stealing a living
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2022-05-21 09:57:05 UTC

  Now I am retired, I can safely make a confession: for years, I was stealing a living. I say so because the general financial advice any retail investor needs is actually very simple :  - Minimize taxes and charges. Avoid expensive fund manager fees. Don’t trade very much . Make full use of Isa and Sipp allowances.  - Make the power of compounding work for you, not against you. Start investing as early as you can. And remember that fund managers’ fees compound horribly over time; an extra half percentage point in annual fees can easily add up to over £2000 for every £10,000 invested over twenty [...]

2022-05-17

• Dynamic spatial general equilibrium
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-05-17 02:55:29 UTC

  By Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu and Stephen Redding http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113917&r=dge We develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model with forward-looking investment and migration decisions. We characterize analytically the transition path of the spatial distribution of economic activity in response to shocks. We apply our framework to the re-allocation of US economic activity from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt from 1965-2015. We find slow convergence to steady-state, with US states closer to steady-state at the end of our sample period than at its beginning. We find su [...]

2022-05-10

• Liquidity constraints and fiscal multipliers
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-05-10 04:28:58 UTC

  By Diogo Sá http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:112132&r=dge Although recent studies identified the percentage of constrained agents as the crucial force driving many fiscal policy mechanisms, the values attained were purely the result of model calibrations. We make use of household-level data to estimate the fraction of hand-to-mouth households for several European countries. We calibrate an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents to match the net liquid wealth distribution and study the impact of credit constraints on the effectiveness of fiscal consolidation policies. Ou [...]

2022-05-09

• House prices: who wins, who loses
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2022-05-09 12:55:19 UTC

  I grow my own kale and never buy any from the shops. If the price of kale rises, do I therefore win or lose? The answer is: neither. On the one hand, I could profit if I were to sell the kale I grow. But on the other, the cost of eating my own kale – the money I would make if I were to sell it – has also risen. Net, I’m neither better or worse off. Some of you might not care very much about the kale-growers of Rutland. What’s true of kale, though, is true of something many of you do care about – house prices. Just as I am self-sufficient in kale, so I’m self-sufficient in housing. As an owner- [...]

2022-05-08

• Jordan Smith: Alito Was Wrong
  by ? in Diane Ravitch's blog, 2022-05-08 13:00:00 UTC

  The Intercept contains an article that is worth your time about the leaked Alito decision that overturns Roe v. Wade. Jordan Smith writes: AS A MATTER of fact, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito is wrong. In a leaked draft of the court’s majorit [...]

2022-04-28

• Dollar Invoicing, Global Value Chains, and the Business Cycle Dynamics of International Trade
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-28 18:59:01 UTC

  By Nikhil Patel and David Cook http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/028&r=dge Recent literature has highlighted that international trade is mostly priced in a few key vehicle currencies and is increasingly dominated by intermediate goods and global value chains (GVCs). Taking these features into account, this paper reexamines the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates and international trade flows. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, it finds key differences between the response of final goods and GVC trade to both domestic and foreign shocks [...]

2022-04-27

• Migrant Smuggling to Europe: a Matching Model
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-27 04:09:39 UTC

  By Olivier Charlot, Claire Naiditch and Radu Vranceanu http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2022-05&r=dge This paper develops a matching model à la Pissarides (2000) to analyze the migrant smuggling market, building on the empirical evidence related to the smuggling of migrants from the Horn of Africa and the Middle East to the European region in the last decade. The model allows us to determine the equilibrium numbers of smugglers and of incoming irregular migrants as well as the total migrant welfare. Most of the coercion-based measures targeting the smugglers achieve the reduction in th [...]

2022-04-22

• What the Shanghai Lockdown Tells Us About China’s Future
  by Nancy Qian in Project Syndicate, 2022-04-22 14:20:48 UTC

  CHICAGO – After signaling that it was moving to a more nuanced COVID-19 policy, Shanghai – a city of 26 million – was pressured by the central government to lock down in late March, and has only just started to ease restrictions after almost one month. The official reason for this drastic policy shift is that citywide testing had revealed high infection rates. Yet one is left wondering why the authorities didn’t opt for a less costly alternative to a complete lockdown. After all, Omicron, which now accounts for almost all new cases globally, has only mild effects on vaccinated people. And w [...]

2022-04-20

• Girls Excel in Language Arts Early, Which May Explain the STEM Gender Gap in Adults
  by ? in ScienceBlog.com, 2022-04-20 13:39:14 UTC

  For most of us, when we make major career choices, we tend to lean into what we’re good at. According to new findings from the University of California San Diego’s Rady School of Management, such skills may develop early in childhood and there can be signi [...]

2022-04-18

• Attention and Fluctuations in Macroeconomic Uncertainty
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-18 14:46:30 UTC

  By Yu-Ting Chiang http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:93807&r=dge This paper studies a dispersed information economy in which agents can exert costly attention to learn about an unknown aggregate state of the economy. Under certain conditions, attention and four measures of uncertainty are countercyclical: Agents pay more attention when they expect the economy to be in a bad state, and their reaction generates higher (i) aggregate output volatility, (ii) cross-sectional output dispersion, (iii) forecast dispersion about aggregate output, and (iv) subjective uncertainty about aggregate out [...]

• Why the Buffalo Bills Stadium Deal is One of the Worst Ever Made
  by ? in Counter Punch, 2022-04-18 07:50:59 UTC

  After New York lawmakers blew past the deadline to approve the state budget, they finally came to an agreement on April 9, 2022, that included a US$850 million subsidy for a new stadium in Buffalo for the NFL’s Bills. As a sports economist who has studied [...]

2022-04-16

• (In)Efficient Commuting And Migration Choices: Theory And Policy In An Urban Search Model
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-16 21:49:42 UTC

  By Luca Marchiori, Julien Pascal and Olivier Pierrard http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2022006&r=dge We develop a monocentric urban search-and-matching model in which workers can choose to commute or to migrate within the region. The equilibrium endogenously allocates the population into three categories: migrants (relocate from their hometown to the city), commuters (traveling to work in the city) and home stayers (remaining in their hometown). We prove that the market equilibrium is usually not optimal: a composition externality may generate under- or over-migration with respect to th [...]

2022-04-15

• Beyond Eurocentrism
  by ? in AEON, 2022-04-15 10:00:00 UTC

  If you really want decolonisation, go beyond cultural criticism to the deep structural insights of economist Samir Amin - by Ingrid Harvold Kvangraven Read at Aeon [...]

2022-04-12

• Who Suffers the Most From Crime Wave?
  by GianCarlo Canaparo in The Foundry, 2022-04-12 13:53:14 UTC

  Violent crime, like the price of gas, is rising. Not everyone is experiencing this crime wave in the same way. For some, it’s a distant issue experienced by other people somewhere else. For others, it’s a daily life-threatening concern. We parsed the FBI’s crime data from 2011 to 2020 (the most recent data available) and found that African Americans bear an increasingly large share of the harm from crime. African American offenders, meanwhile, are committing an increasingly large share of violent crimes. For other racial groups, the numbers are either decreasing (in the case of both whi [...]

2022-04-07

• Land is back, it should be taxed, it can be taxed
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-07 19:10:20 UTC

  By Odran Bonnet, Guillaume Chapelle, Alain Trannoy and Etienne Wasmer http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03238443&r=dge Land is back. The increase in wealth in the second half of 20th century arose from housing and land. It should be taxed. We introduce land and housing structures in Judd’s standard setup: first best optimal taxation is achieved with a property tax on land and requires no tax on capital. With positive taxes on housing rents, a first best is still possible but with subsidies to rental housing investments, and either with differential land tax rates or with a tax on imp [...]

2022-03-30

• Opportunity and Inequality across Generations
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-30 22:04:04 UTC

  By Winfried Koeniger and Carlo Zanella http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15073&r=dge We analyze how intergenerational mobility and inequality would change relative to the status quo if dynasties had access to optimal insurance against low ability of future generations. Based on a dynamic, dynastic Mirrleesian model, we find that insurance against intergenerational ability risk increases in the social optimum relative to the status quo. This implies less intergenerational mobility in terms of welfare but no quantitatively significant change in earnings mobility. Earnings mobility is thu [...]

2022-03-28

• There Is No Saving the Case for Industrial Policy
  by Don Boudreaux in Cafe Hayek, 2022-03-28 16:14:03 UTC

  (Don Boudreaux) Tweet Mr. W__ alleges that my opposition to industrial policy “must be explained only by [my] dogmatic faith in the magic of imaginary free market forces.” Mr. W__: You write, in support of industrial policy, that “[t]here is no guarantee that we’ll get optimum comparative advantage under the free market.” Of course not. Nothing in life, save death, is guaranteed. That standard is inappropriate because meeting it is impossible. The relevant question here is this: Under which policy – free markets or government direction – are individuals as producers most likely to discover [...]

• Video of My Presentation on Asymmetric Carbon Emissions
  by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2022-03-28 04:47:00 UTC

  I recently gave a seminar in Italy (virtually) on our paper on asymmetric carbon emissions over the business cycle. Here is the video: [...]

2022-03-25

• Minimum Wage Shocks in an Estimated DSGE Model with Underreporting
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-25 23:35:13 UTC

  By Alisher Tolepbergen http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajx:wpaper:20&r=dge We build and estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of minimum wage shocks in an economy characterized by a high degree of wage underreporting. The estimation results suggest that the effect of the minimum wage shocks to all economic aggregates but employment is not significant. The impulse response analysis shows that a higher degree of underreporting results in less responsive dynamics to the minimum wage shocks. In addition, the magnitude of the responses is also affected by the share o [...]

2022-03-24

• How to build climate resilience into the construction industry
  by ? in Forum:Blog, 2022-03-24 08:25:59 UTC

  Investment in climate resilience for infrastructure is vital. Providing the construction sector with data and tools to assess climate risks could save lives. [...]

2022-03-21

• Worker-Firm Screening and the Business Cycle
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-21 21:42:49 UTC

  By Jake Bradley http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15017&r=dge There has been a substantial body of work modeling the co-movement of employment, vacancies, and output over the business cycle. This paper builds on this literature, and informed by empirical investigation, models worker and firm search and hiring behavior in a manner consistent with recent micro-evidence. Consistent with empirical findings, for a given vacancy, a firm receives many applicants, and chooses their preferred candidate amongst the set. Similarly, workers in both unemployment and employment, can evaluate many op [...]

2022-03-16

• Other-Regarding Preferences and Redistributive Politics
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2022-03-16 09:55:15 UTC

  By: Fehr, Ernst (University of Zurich); Epper, Thomas (University of Lille); Senn, Julien (University of Zuri). Abstract:Increasing inequality and associated egalitarian sentiments have again put redistribution on the political agenda. Other-regarding preferences may also affect support for redistribution, but knowledge about their distribution in the broader population and how they are associated with political support for redistributive policies is still scarce. In this paper, we take advantage of Swiss direct democracy, where people voted several times on strongly redistributiv [...]

• Cuidado con aquellos que nos digan que hay que aprovechar las subidas recientes de bolsa para vender
  by Alejandro Nieto González in Elblogsalmon, 2022-03-16 08:01:27 UTC

  Llevamos un inicio de año relativamente malo en cuanto a inversión bursátil se refiere . Ya veníamos de un final de año bajista, pero la invasión de Ucrania por parte de Rusia ha complicado todo aún más. Añade incertidumbre a la recuperación económica post-covid y esto hace que las valoraciones de las empresas sean menores. Algunos anuncian que lo ideal es estar fuera del mercado y aprovechar alguna subida que ha habido recientemente para vender. Es decir, algunos analistas recomiendan intentar hacer market timing . [...]

2022-03-15

• On the Inefficiency of Non-Competes in Low-Wage Labor Markets
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-15 15:08:47 UTC

  By Bart Hobijn, André Kurmann and Tristan Potter http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:93658&r=dge We study the efficiency of non-compete agreements (NCAs) in an equilibrium model of labor turnover. The model is consistent with empirical studies showing that NCAs reduce turnover, average wages, and wage dispersion for low-wage workers. But the model also predicts that NCAs, by reducing turnover, raise recruitment and employment. We show that optimal NCA policy: (i) is characterized by a Hosios like condition that balances the benefits of higher employment against the costs of inefficient con [...]

2022-03-14

• China's Hedge Against Geopolitical Shock
  by Zhang Jun in Project Syndicate, 2022-03-14 15:35:55 UTC

  SHANGHAI – In terms of geopolitical impact, nothing could be more important than the United States’ shift from strategic cooperation to strategic competition with China. This change has darkened many observers’ views of China’s economic prospects, as indicated by a Bruegel report released late last year. The assumption, it seems, is that China has no choice but to retreat from its successful development path and embark on a less prosperous path toward self-reliance, with the state exercising complete control over the economy to hedge against geopolitical shocks. But China’s efforts to bolster [...]

2022-03-12

• Robots and Humans: The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in an Endogenous Growth Model
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-12 17:34:16 UTC

  By Óscar Afonso, Elena Sochirca and Pedro Cunha Neves http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:por:cetedp:2201&r=dge In this paper we develop a dynamic general equilibrium growth model in which robots can replace unskilled labor and: i) the government uses tax revenues to invest in social capital and compensate those who do not work; ii) there is monetary policy with cash-in-advance restrictions that impact, for example, wages; iii) social capital increases skilled-labor productivity and facilitates the technological-knowledge progress. Our results confirm that by reducing the unskilled-to-skilled-labor r [...]

2022-03-11

• Quotation of the Day…
  by Don Boudreaux in Cafe Hayek, 2022-03-11 09:30:00 UTC

  (Don Boudreaux) Tweet … is from page 73 of Israel Kirzner’s March 1992 South African Journal of Economics paper, “ Subjectivism, Freedom and Economic Law ” as this lecture is reprinted in  Austrian Subjectivism and the Emergence of Entrepreneurship Theory , (Peter J. Boettke and Frédéric Sautet, eds., 2015), which is a volume in  The Collected Works of Israel M. Kirzner : The tendency of market outcomes to reflect, at least to some extent, the realities which surround the society of men, derives from the propensity of men shrewdly to size up these uncertainties and to act purposefully to d [...]

2022-03-10

• Consumption taxation to finance pension payments
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-10 17:08:47 UTC

  By Kilian Ruppert, Mattias Schön and Nikolai Stähler http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:472021&r=dge This paper assesses how a permanent shift from financing a public pay-as-you-go pension by direct (labour income) taxation towards financing it by indirect (consumption) taxation affects the economy and welfare. To this end, we use an overlapping-generations-augmented two-region general equilibrium framework with search frictions on the labour market. The analysed tax reform partially shifts the tax burden from domestic to foreign producers and lowers marginal costs of domestic production [...]

2022-03-09

• Redistributive Effect and the Progressivity of Taxes and Benefits: Evidence for the UK, 1977–2018
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2022-03-09 11:11:25 UTC

  By: Herault, Nicolas ; Jenkins, Stephen P. :We apply the Kakwani approach to decomposing redistributive effect into average rate, progressivity, and reranking components using yearly UK data covering 1977–2018. We examine cash and in-kind benefits, and direct and indirect taxes. In addition, we highlight an empirical implementation issue – the definition of the reference (‘pre-fisc’) distribution. Drawing on an innovative counterfactual approach, our empirical analysis shows that trends in the redistributive effect of cash benefits are largely associated with cyclical changes in average be [...]

2022-03-07

• Firm Inattention and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy: A Text-Based Approach
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-07 14:01:13 UTC

  By Wenting Song and Samuel Stern http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-3&r=dge This paper provides direct evidence of the importance of firm attention to macro-economic dynamics. We construct a text-based measure of firm attention to macro-economic news and document firm attention that is polarized and countercyclical. Differences in attention lead to asymmetric responses to monetary policy: expansionary monetary shocks raise market values of attentive firms more than those of inattentive firms, and contractionary shocks lower values of attentive firms by less. We use the measure to calib [...]

2022-03-02

• Governing an Ocean of Plastics
  by Raimund Bleischwitz in Project Syndicate, 2022-03-02 12:50:48 UTC

  BREMEN – Images of plastic pollution in the ocean and on beaches are now commonplace, and the problem is likely to get worse. Last week, the OECD’s first Global Plastics Outlook revealed a dramatic increase in the plastic waste leaked into aquatic environments. That report came only a month after the World Wildlife Fund for Nature released a study that projects a doubling of microplastics in the ocean over the next few decades. While there are promising innovations that extract plastic from the ocean or intercept it in rivers, these projects will barely make a dent in the amount of plastic [...]

2022-03-01

• Sanzioni economiche: il diavolo è nei dettagli
  by Stagista 2 in La Voce, 2022-03-01 09:07:12 UTC

  Le sanzioni sono uno strumento di coercizione politica che utilizza la leva economica. Quelle approvate nel 2014 contro Mosca hanno dato pochi risultati perché sono state aggirate. Oggi le misure sono mirate a obiettivi specifici, ma il pericolo resta. Evoluzione ed efficacia delle sanzioni economiche Le sanzioni economiche rappresentano importanti strumenti di politica estera che si frappongono tra simboliche azioni politico-diplomatiche (come il ritiro degli ambasciatori e delle delegazioni nazionali) e strumenti molto coercitivi, come il conflitto armato. Le sanzioni poggiano [...]

2022-02-28

• New and Novel ARCH Model Appication (Seriously)
  by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations, 2022-02-28 12:22:00 UTC

    The Variability and Volatility of Sleep: An Archetypal Approach By: Hamermesh, Daniel S.  (Barnard College);  Pfann, Gerard A.  (Maastricht University) Abstract: Using Dutch time-diary data from 1975-2005 covering over 10,000 respondents for 7 consecutive days each, we show that individuals' sleep time exhibits both variability and volatility characterized by stationary autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity: The absolute values of deviations from a person's average sleep on one day are positively correlated with those on the next day. Sleep is more variable on weekends and among peop [...]

• Long-Memory Neural Nets
  by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations, 2022-02-28 12:12:00 UTC

    Fractional SDE-Net: Generation of Time Series Data with Long-term Memory By: Kohei Hayashi ;  Kei Nakagawa Abstract: In this paper, we focus on generation of time-series data using neural networks. It is often the case that input time-series data, especially taken from real financial markets, is irregularly sampled, and its noise structure is more complicated than i.i.d. type. To generate time series with such a property, we propose fSDE-Net: neural fractional Stochastic Differential Equation Network. It generalizes the neural SDE model by using fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index la [...]

2022-02-22

• Information impact on Market Performance
  by Inaki Villanueva in Applied economist, 2022-02-22 09:44:00 UTC

  I realized I never mentioned� this famous paper �( or here ) in this blog.� The idea that the availability of more information increases agents' wellbeing has always been theoretically sound.� Jensen, on this paper, used a key technological event to prove the theory empirically.� "When information is limited or costly, agents are unable to engage in optimal arbitrage. Excess price dispersion across markets can arise, and goods may not be allocated efficiently. In this setting, information technologies may improve market performance and increase welfare. Between 1997 and 2001, mobile phone serv [...]

2022-02-12

• Deep Recurrent Neural Nets with Long Short Term Memory
  by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations, 2022-02-12 13:01:00 UTC

   Again.  LTSM may be emerging as very big deal in recurrent NN modeling.  I blogged on it before (e.g. here ) but I still don't understand it deeply.  Does anyone? Maybe it's just a device for avoiding the vanishing-gradient problem (not that that isn't important); maybe it's more. This new paper is very well done and features LSTM prominently. The DONUT Approach to EnsembleCombination Forecasting By: Lars Lien Ankile ;  Kjartan Krange Abstract: This paper presents an ensemble forecasting method that shows strong results on the M4Competition dataset by decreasing feature and model selection as [...]

2022-02-09

• Online tutoring helps — a little
  by Joanne in Linking and Thinking on Education by Joanne Jacobs, 2022-02-09 16:30:15 UTC

  U.S. Education Secretary Miguel Cardona wants schools to provide 30 minutes of tutoring, three times a week to every student who’s fallen behind during the pandemic. That sort of intensive tutoring has proven to be effective — and logistically challenging. And expensive. Photo: Julia M. Cameron/Pexels Can online tutoring help “Covid kids” catch up? Ed Week ‘s Stephen Sawchuk reports on a new  study that finds signs of hope. Benefits were slight, but researchers believe “more tutoring time would have yielded stronger results,” writes Sawchuk. Students who got the most tutoring made the most pro [...]

2022-02-07

• Electricity and Firm Productivity: A General-Equilibrium Approach
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-02-07 17:39:56 UTC

  By Stephie Fried and David Lagakos http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9490&r=dge Many policymakers view power outages as a major constraint on firm productivity in developing countries. Yet empirical studies find modest short-run effects of outages on firm performance. This paper builds a dynamic macroeconomic model to study the long-run general-equilibrium effects of power outages on productivity. Outages lower productivity in the model by creating idle resources, depressing the scale of incumbent firms and reducing entry of new firms. Consistent with the empirical literature, the mode [...]

• Affordable housing
  by noreply@blogger.com (Urbanomics) in Urbanomics, 2022-02-07 00:25:00 UTC

  Affordable housing in cities is one of the biggest public policy challenges facing us. Apart from being the biggest expenditure in a typical household budget, it's also the most important determinant in many things in our lives - where we live, what our job is, and how we live. It determines the fates and fortunes of cities, regions, and even countries. And it's also the main contributor to one of the biggest problems facing us, inequality, ...  housing inequality, not income inequality, primarily determines how much wealth inequality there is  in most Western countries. Striking snippet about [...]

2022-02-06

• Monetary Policy and Endogenous Financial Crises
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-02-06 04:40:28 UTC

  By Fabrice Collard, Frédéric Boissay, Jordi Galì and Cristina Manea http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:126275&r=dge We study whether a central bank should deviate from its objective of price stability to promote financial stability. We tackle this question within a textbook New Keynesian model augmented with capital accumulation and microfounded endogenous financial crises. We compare several interest rate rules, under which the central bank responds more or less forcefully to inflation and aggregate output. Our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy affects the probability [...]

2022-02-01

• Why women’s leadership is key to climate action
  by ? in Forum:Blog, 2022-02-01 12:18:47 UTC

  Despite being underrepresented in climate leadership, women and girls are crucial in the work to achieve more effective and equitable climate outcomes. [...]

2022-01-28

• I robot fanno studiare di più
  by Segugio 1 in La Voce, 2022-01-28 10:38:46 UTC

  L’automazione dei processi produttivi cambia il mercato del lavoro. Offre anche opportunità. Ma le competenze necessarie a svolgere le nuove professioni sono diverse da quelle dei lavoratori attuali. E i giovani rispondono iscrivendosi all’università. Robot e il mercato del lavoro Sull’impatto delle nuove tecnologie sul mercato del lavoro il dibattito è aperto ormai da diversi anni, alimentato dalla crescente preoccupazione che molte delle mansioni svolte dagli esseri umani possano essere automatizzate . I robot industriali sono senza dubbio tra le tecnologie di automazione che n [...]

2022-01-26

• Les agents économiques répondent-ils vraiment aux incitations ?
  by Thomas Renault in Contrepoints, 2022-01-26 03:30:43 UTC

    L’ane de Buridan entre deux opinions LACMA credits Ashley Van Haeften (CC BY 2.0)   Eh voilà, c’est la rentrée ! J’ai endossé hier après-midi mon costume de super-héros (enfin une veste quoi !) afin d’enseigner l’économie à une armée de nouveaux étudiants assoiffés de connaissance. Et comme chaque année, après une introduction classique « blablabla l’économie c’est cool » , le cours commence sur les 10 principes de l’Économie, chapitre issu de l’ouvrage Economics  de Mankiw et Taylor. Et là arrive le quatrième principe : « les agents économiques répondent aux incitations » . En économie, un [...]

2022-01-25

• Typo in Directed Technical Change and the British Industrial Revolution
  by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2022-01-25 22:58:00 UTC

  I hate reading my papers after they're published as there is usually some mistake somewhere. Unfortunately, I have to read them to do more research. I just found a typo in our 2021 paper in JAERE . Equation (8) should look like this: In the published paper, there is a missing Gamma in the second term.� I also noticed a couple of issues in the text of " Energy quality " published in Ecological Economics in 2010. One is in the introduction and is debatable: "Fuel and energy quality is not neccessarily fixed". This should be or instead of and or are instead of is. But it really isn't important. T [...]

• Reddito delle donne: sempre un passo indietro agli uomini
  by Massimo Taddei in La Voce, 2022-01-25 09:04:38 UTC

  Il Bilancio di genere presentato dalla Ragioneria generale dello stato mostra una forte disuguaglianza tra i redditi di uomini e donne, anche nelle fasce più alte. E il sistema fiscale non incentiva la partecipazione delle donne al mercato del lavoro. La distribuzione diseguale dei redditi Il Bilancio di genere 2020 , pubblicato a gennaio 2022 dalla Ragioneria generale dello stato, è un importante strumento per fare il punto sulla posizione delle donne italiane nell’economia e nella società e su come le politiche pubbliche influenzano i divari di genere. La pubblicazione del documen [...]

Privacy Legal