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- Measuring financial inclusion: how much do households participate in the formal financial system?
by x in Ajay Shah's blog, 2022-07-03 05:02:00 UTC
by Geetika Palta, Mithila A. Sarah and Susan Thomas .
Measuring the impact of financial inclusion
Households use financial instruments and financial markets to achieve their lifetime objectives. These include being able to smooth consumption over time, being able to withstand shocks, and pursue entrepreneurial opportunities to gain income mobility. Financial inclusion refers to such access to finance for a larger subset of the population (e.g. Rao, 2018 ). Financial policy makers have pursued financial inclusion for many decades. In recent years, the rise of ESG investors has bolstered p [...]
- No title
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2022-06-28 21:07:05 UTC
- Optimal bank capital requirements: What do the macroeconomic models say?
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-06-27 21:17:20 UTC
By Adam Gulan, Esa Jokivuolle and Fabio Verona
The optimal level of banks’ capital requirements has been a key research topic since at least the introduction of the Basel rules in the late 1980s. In this paper, we review the literature, focusing on recent findings from quantitative structural macroeconomic models. While dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models capture second-round (general equilibrium) effects such as the feedback effects from macroeconomic outcomes back to financial intermediation and the dynamic evolution of the econom [...]
- Oil and gas prices move together like rockets and feathers
by ? in FRED blog, 2022-06-23 13:00:00 UTC
In recent months, U.S. gasoline prices have risen significantly—because of both increased demand and increased production costs. Notably, but not surprisingly, oil prices have also increased. And although oil is a key input in the production of retail gasoline, oil and gas prices don’t always move in tandem.
When oil prices shoot upward, gas prices rise with them. And when oil prices fall, gasoline prices also fall; but they can fall at a slower rate. Economists refer to this market dynamic as “asymmetric pass-through.” A more colorful description of the phenomenon is “rockets and feathers.”
- The Poisson distribution: From basic probability theory to regression models
by Achim Zeileis in R-bloggers, 2022-06-22 22:00:00 UTC
[This article was first published on Achim Zeileis , and kindly contributed to R-bloggers ]. (You can report issue about the content on this page here )
Want to share your content on R-bloggers? click here if you have a blog, or here if you don't.
Brief introduction to the Poisson distribution for modeling count data using the distributions3 package. The distribution is illustrated using the number of goals scored at the 2018 FIFA World Cup, suitable for self-study or as a classroom exercise.
The Poisson distribution
The classic basic probability distribution e [...]
- The future of work 2 â working long and hard
by michael roberts in Michael Roberts Blog, 2022-06-22 14:34:52 UTC
In the first post of my Future of Work series , I looked at the impact of working from home and remote work which has mushroomed since the COVID pandemic.
In this second part, I want to consider the impact of work on people’s lives and health and how that will pan out over the next few decades. Marx once said “The less you eat, drink and buy books; the less you go to the theatre, the dance hall, the public house; the less you think, love, theorize, sing, paint, fence, etc., the more you save—the greater becomes your treasure which neither moths nor rust will devour—your capital. The less y [...]
- Financer le nuclÃ©aire sans argent public et sans dÃ©manteler EDFÂ : une solution existeÂ !
by FranÃ§ois Henimann in Contrepoints, 2022-06-21 02:50:13 UTC
Nous avons montré dans un précédent article que la stratégie énergétique 2050 annoncée par le président de la République relance insuffisamment le nucléaire, et que décarboner de façon compétitive et résiliente l’économie française à l’horizon 2050 nécessite de disposer à cette échéance d’une puissance installée nucléaire de l’ordre de 85 GW (60 à 65 % du mix électrique).
EDF est en grande difficulté financière, à cause de la sous-évaluation du prix de vente de l’ARENH (Accès Régulé à l’Électricité Nucléaire Historique), fixé à 42 euros/MWh en 2012, et surtout non réévalué depuis, malgré les c [...]
- Putinâs War and the German Economic Model
by Dalia Marin in Project Syndicate, 2022-06-13 12:55:42 UTC
MUNICH – Will Germany’s economic model survive Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine? As I noted in a recent talk at Harvard University, answering that question requires revisiting recent economic history.
Germany’s economy was transformed after the fall of communism in 1989. Liberalization of trade with the country’s eastern neighbors had three profound effects at home . First, it led to decentralized wage bargaining. Second, it had a flattening effect on hierarchical management in German firms. And third, it extended German production networks into Central and Eastern Europe. [...]
- Educational inequality
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2022-06-02 20:14:05 UTC
By: Blanden, Jo (University of Surrey); Doepke, Matthias (Northwestern University); Stuhler, Jan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
Abstract: This chapter provides new evidence on educational inequality and reviews the literature on the causes and consequences of unequal education. We document large achievement gaps between children from different socio-economic backgrounds, show how patterns of educational inequality vary across countries, time, and generations, and establish a link between educational inequality and social mobility. We interpret this evidence fr [...]
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2022-06-02 20:03:59 UTC
By: Richard Layard
Abstract: As societies become richer, they do not become happier. This paradox has led to a growing interest in the science of wellbeing, and how policymakers can evaluate policies in terms of what will improve wellbeing. Economists investigate what is important for wellbeing and the influence of wellbeing on working life, education and health.
Keywords: Climate Change, Education, Employment, Health, Inequality, Unemployment, Wellbeing, Wages, Happiness, Public Policy
- Confidence Intervals for Recursive Journal Impact Factors
by email@example.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2022-06-02 06:39:00 UTC
I have a new working paper coauthored with Johannes König and Richard Tol . It's a follow up to my 2013 paper in the Journal of Economic Literature , where I computed standard errors for simple journal impact factors for all economics journals and tried to evaluate whether the differences between journals were significant.* In the new paper, we develop standard errors and confidence intervals for recursive journal impact factors, which take into account that some citations are more prestigious than others, as well as for the associated ranks of journals. We again apply these methods to the all [...]
- Axel Leijunhufvud, Wide-Ranging Economist
by Lance Taylor in INET Blog, 2022-06-01 18:31:00 UTC
An obituary for Axel Leijunhufvud (Sept 6, 1933 - May 5, 2022)
Axel Leijunhufvud’s sad passing on May 5 th has rightly stimulated a round of tributes to a thinker of uncommon breadth. But there is perhaps reason to doubt how widely appreciated the diversity of his thinking really was. Leijunhufvud changed the colors of his economic reasoning in response to many strands of 20th-century discussion, repainting each one. He had an ample palette and his color mixes were always interesting – an artist of macroeconomics indeed. Never lacking confidence a [...]
- A new federal program goes local to accelerate regional innovation
by Mark Muro in The Avenue, 2022-05-31 18:43:12 UTC
By Mark Muro One of the most compelling developments of the Biden presidency has been the emergence of significant programs and policies targeted at helping places (and their residents) thrive, rather than people more generally. Proposed across numerous realms , “place-based” programs such as the Economic Development Administration’s Build Back Better Regional Challenge are encouraging bottom-up problem-solving in more and more places, even though the Senate blockage of the Build Back Better Act stymied multiple proposals last winter.
Now comes another impressive embrace of place-based policy— [...]
- Monetary Policy in Disaster-Prone Developing Countries
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-05-23 21:19:06 UTC
By Chris Papageorgiou, Giovanni Melina, Alessandro Cantelmo and Nikos Fatouros
This paper analyzes monetary policy regimes in emerging and developing economies where climate-related natural disasters are major macroeconomic shocks. A narrative analysis of IMF reports published around the occurrence of natural disasters documents their impact on important macroeconomic variables and monetary policy responses. While countries with at least some degree of monetary policy independence typically react by tightening the monetary policy stance, i [...]
- The Persistence of Childhood Poverty in the US
by ? in Counter Punch, 2022-05-23 08:37:09 UTC
In the United States, children are more likely to experience poverty than people over 18. In 2020, about 1 in 6 kids, 16% of all children, were living in families with incomes below the official poverty line – an income threshold the government set that ye [...]
- Stealing a living
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2022-05-21 09:57:05 UTC
Now I am retired, I can safely make a confession: for years, I was stealing a living.
I say so because the general financial advice any retail investor needs is actually very simple :
- Minimize taxes and charges. Avoid expensive fund manager fees. Don’t trade very much . Make full use of Isa and Sipp allowances.
- Make the power of compounding work for you, not against you. Start investing as early as you can. And remember that fund managers’ fees compound horribly over time; an extra half percentage point in annual fees can easily add up to over £2000 for every £10,000 invested over twenty [...]
- Dynamic spatial general equilibrium
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-05-17 02:55:29 UTC
By Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu and Stephen Redding
We develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model with forward-looking investment and migration decisions. We characterize analytically the transition path of the spatial distribution of economic activity in response to shocks. We apply our framework to the re-allocation of US economic activity from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt from 1965-2015. We find slow convergence to steady-state, with US states closer to steady-state at the end of our sample period than at its beginning. We find su [...]
- Liquidity constraints and fiscal multipliers
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-05-10 04:28:58 UTC
By Diogo Sá
Although recent studies identified the percentage of constrained agents as the crucial force driving many fiscal policy mechanisms, the values attained were purely the result of model calibrations. We make use of household-level data to estimate the fraction of hand-to-mouth households for several European countries. We calibrate an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents to match the net liquid wealth distribution and study the impact of credit constraints on the effectiveness of fiscal consolidation policies. Ou [...]
- House prices: who wins, who loses
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2022-05-09 12:55:19 UTC
I grow my own kale and never buy any from the shops. If the price of kale rises, do I therefore win or lose?
The answer is: neither. On the one hand, I could profit if I were to sell the kale I grow. But on the other, the cost of eating my own kale – the money I would make if I were to sell it – has also risen. Net, I’m neither better or worse off.
Some of you might not care very much about the kale-growers of Rutland. What’s true of kale, though, is true of something many of you do care about – house prices.
Just as I am self-sufficient in kale, so I’m self-sufficient in housing. As an owner- [...]
- Dollar Invoicing, Global Value Chains, and the Business Cycle Dynamics of International Trade
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-28 18:59:01 UTC
By Nikhil Patel and David Cook
Recent literature has highlighted that international trade is mostly priced in a few key vehicle currencies and is increasingly dominated by intermediate goods and global value chains (GVCs). Taking these features into account, this paper reexamines the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates and international trade flows. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, it finds key differences between the response of final goods and GVC trade to both domestic and foreign shocks [...]
- Migrant Smuggling to Europe: a Matching Model
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-27 04:09:39 UTC
By Olivier Charlot, Claire Naiditch and Radu Vranceanu
This paper develops a matching model à la Pissarides (2000) to analyze the migrant smuggling market, building on the empirical evidence related to the smuggling of migrants from the Horn of Africa and the Middle East to the European region in the last decade. The model allows us to determine the equilibrium numbers of smugglers and of incoming irregular migrants as well as the total migrant welfare. Most of the coercion-based measures targeting the smugglers achieve the reduction in th [...]
- What the Shanghai Lockdown Tells Us About Chinaâs Future
by Nancy Qian in Project Syndicate, 2022-04-22 14:20:48 UTC
CHICAGO – After signaling that it was moving to a more nuanced COVID-19 policy, Shanghai – a city of 26 million – was pressured by the central government to lock down in late March, and has only just started to ease restrictions after almost one month. The official reason for this drastic policy shift is that citywide testing had revealed high infection rates. Yet one is left wondering why the authorities didn’t opt for a less costly alternative to a complete lockdown.
After all, Omicron, which now accounts for almost all new cases globally, has only mild effects on vaccinated people. And w [...]
- Attention and Fluctuations in Macroeconomic Uncertainty
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-18 14:46:30 UTC
By Yu-Ting Chiang
This paper studies a dispersed information economy in which agents can exert costly attention to learn about an unknown aggregate state of the economy. Under certain conditions, attention and four measures of uncertainty are countercyclical: Agents pay more attention when they expect the economy to be in a bad state, and their reaction generates higher (i) aggregate output volatility, (ii) cross-sectional output dispersion, (iii) forecast dispersion about aggregate output, and (iv) subjective uncertainty about aggregate out [...]
- Why the Buffalo Bills Stadium Deal is One of the Worst Ever Made
by ? in Counter Punch, 2022-04-18 07:50:59 UTC
After New York lawmakers blew past the deadline to approve the state budget, they finally came to an agreement on April 9, 2022, that included a US$850 million subsidy for a new stadium in Buffalo for the NFL’s Bills. As a sports economist who has studied [...]
- (In)Efficient Commuting And Migration Choices: Theory And Policy In An Urban Search Model
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-16 21:49:42 UTC
By Luca Marchiori, Julien Pascal and Olivier Pierrard
We develop a monocentric urban search-and-matching model in which workers can choose to commute or to migrate within the region. The equilibrium endogenously allocates the population into three categories: migrants (relocate from their hometown to the city), commuters (traveling to work in the city) and home stayers (remaining in their hometown). We prove that the market equilibrium is usually not optimal: a composition externality may generate under- or over-migration with respect to th [...]
- Beyond Eurocentrism
by ? in AEON, 2022-04-15 10:00:00 UTC
If you really want decolonisation, go beyond cultural criticism to the deep structural insights of economist Samir Amin - by Ingrid Harvold Kvangraven Read at Aeon [...]
- Who Suffers the Most From Crime Wave?
by GianCarlo Canaparo in The Foundry, 2022-04-12 13:53:14 UTC
Violent crime, like the price of gas, is rising. Not everyone is experiencing this crime wave in the same way. For some, it’s a distant issue experienced by other people somewhere else. For others, it’s a daily life-threatening concern.
We parsed the FBI’s crime data from 2011 to 2020 (the most recent data available) and found that African Americans bear an increasingly large share of the harm from crime. African American offenders, meanwhile, are committing an increasingly large share of violent crimes.
For other racial groups, the numbers are either decreasing (in the case of both whi [...]
- Land is back, it should be taxed, it can be taxed
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-04-07 19:10:20 UTC
By Odran Bonnet, Guillaume Chapelle, Alain Trannoy and Etienne Wasmer
Land is back. The increase in wealth in the second half of 20th century arose from housing and land. It should be taxed. We introduce land and housing structures in Judd’s standard setup: first best optimal taxation is achieved with a property tax on land and requires no tax on capital. With positive taxes on housing rents, a first best is still possible but with subsidies to rental housing investments, and either with differential land tax rates or with a tax on imp [...]
- Opportunity and Inequality across Generations
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-30 22:04:04 UTC
By Winfried Koeniger and Carlo Zanella
We analyze how intergenerational mobility and inequality would change relative to the status quo if dynasties had access to optimal insurance against low ability of future generations. Based on a dynamic, dynastic Mirrleesian model, we find that insurance against intergenerational ability risk increases in the social optimum relative to the status quo. This implies less intergenerational mobility in terms of welfare but no quantitatively significant change in earnings mobility. Earnings mobility is thu [...]
- There Is No Saving the Case for Industrial Policy
by Don Boudreaux in Cafe Hayek, 2022-03-28 16:14:03 UTC
Tweet Mr. W__ alleges that my opposition to industrial policy “must be explained only by [my] dogmatic faith in the magic of imaginary free market forces.”
You write, in support of industrial policy, that “[t]here is no guarantee that we’ll get optimum comparative advantage under the free market.”
Of course not. Nothing in life, save death, is guaranteed. That standard is inappropriate because meeting it is impossible. The relevant question here is this: Under which policy – free markets or government direction – are individuals as producers most likely to discover [...]
- Video of My Presentation on Asymmetric Carbon Emissions
by firstname.lastname@example.org (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2022-03-28 04:47:00 UTC
I recently gave a seminar in Italy (virtually) on our paper on asymmetric carbon emissions over the business cycle. Here is the video: [...]
- Minimum Wage Shocks in an Estimated DSGE Model with Underreporting
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-25 23:35:13 UTC
By Alisher Tolepbergen
We build and estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of minimum wage shocks in an economy characterized by a high degree of wage underreporting. The estimation results suggest that the effect of the minimum wage shocks to all economic aggregates but employment is not significant. The impulse response analysis shows that a higher degree of underreporting results in less responsive dynamics to the minimum wage shocks. In addition, the magnitude of the responses is also affected by the share o [...]
- Worker-Firm Screening and the Business Cycle
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-21 21:42:49 UTC
By Jake Bradley
There has been a substantial body of work modeling the co-movement of employment, vacancies, and output over the business cycle. This paper builds on this literature, and informed by empirical investigation, models worker and firm search and hiring behavior in a manner consistent with recent micro-evidence. Consistent with empirical findings, for a given vacancy, a firm receives many applicants, and chooses their preferred candidate amongst the set. Similarly, workers in both unemployment and employment, can evaluate many op [...]
- Other-Regarding Preferences and Redistributive Politics
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2022-03-16 09:55:15 UTC
By: Fehr, Ernst (University of Zurich); Epper, Thomas (University of Lille); Senn, Julien (University of Zuri). Abstract:Increasing inequality and associated egalitarian sentiments have again put redistribution on the political agenda. Other-regarding preferences may also affect support for redistribution, but knowledge about their distribution in the broader population and how they are associated with political support for redistributive policies is still scarce. In this paper, we take advantage of Swiss direct democracy, where people voted several times on strongly redistributiv [...]
- Cuidado con aquellos que nos digan que hay que aprovechar las subidas recientes de bolsa para vender
by Alejandro Nieto GonzÃ¡lez in Elblogsalmon, 2022-03-16 08:01:27 UTC
Llevamos un inicio de año relativamente malo en cuanto a inversión bursátil se refiere . Ya veníamos de un final de año bajista, pero la invasión de Ucrania por parte de Rusia ha complicado todo aún más. Añade incertidumbre a la recuperación económica post-covid y esto hace que las valoraciones de las empresas sean menores.
Algunos anuncian que lo ideal es estar fuera del mercado y aprovechar alguna subida que ha habido recientemente para vender. Es decir, algunos analistas recomiendan intentar hacer market timing . [...]
- On the Inefficiency of Non-Competes in Low-Wage Labor Markets
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-15 15:08:47 UTC
By Bart Hobijn, André Kurmann and Tristan Potter
We study the efficiency of non-compete agreements (NCAs) in an equilibrium model of labor turnover. The model is consistent with empirical studies showing that NCAs reduce turnover, average wages, and wage dispersion for low-wage workers. But the model also predicts that NCAs, by reducing turnover, raise recruitment and employment. We show that optimal NCA policy: (i) is characterized by a Hosios like condition that balances the benefits of higher employment against the costs of inefficient con [...]
- China's Hedge Against Geopolitical Shock
by Zhang Jun in Project Syndicate, 2022-03-14 15:35:55 UTC
SHANGHAI – In terms of geopolitical impact, nothing could be more important than the United States’ shift from strategic cooperation to strategic competition with China. This change has darkened many observers’ views of China’s economic prospects, as indicated by a Bruegel report released late last year. The assumption, it seems, is that China has no choice but to retreat from its successful development path and embark on a less prosperous path toward self-reliance, with the state exercising complete control over the economy to hedge against geopolitical shocks. But China’s efforts to bolster [...]
- Robots and Humans: The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in an Endogenous Growth Model
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-12 17:34:16 UTC
By Óscar Afonso, Elena Sochirca and Pedro Cunha Neves
In this paper we develop a dynamic general equilibrium growth model in which robots can replace unskilled labor and: i) the government uses tax revenues to invest in social capital and compensate those who do not work; ii) there is monetary policy with cash-in-advance restrictions that impact, for example, wages; iii) social capital increases skilled-labor productivity and facilitates the technological-knowledge progress. Our results confirm that by reducing the unskilled-to-skilled-labor r [...]
- Quotation of the Dayâ¦
by Don Boudreaux in Cafe Hayek, 2022-03-11 09:30:00 UTC
Tweet … is from page 73 of Israel Kirzner’s March 1992 South African Journal of Economics paper, “ Subjectivism, Freedom and Economic Law ” as this lecture is reprinted in Austrian Subjectivism and the Emergence of Entrepreneurship Theory , (Peter J. Boettke and Frédéric Sautet, eds., 2015), which is a volume in The Collected Works of Israel M. Kirzner :
The tendency of market outcomes to reflect, at least to some extent, the realities which surround the society of men, derives from the propensity of men shrewdly to size up these uncertainties and to act purposefully to d [...]
- Consumption taxation to finance pension payments
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-10 17:08:47 UTC
By Kilian Ruppert, Mattias Schön and Nikolai Stähler
This paper assesses how a permanent shift from financing a public pay-as-you-go pension by direct (labour income) taxation towards financing it by indirect (consumption) taxation affects the economy and welfare. To this end, we use an overlapping-generations-augmented two-region general equilibrium framework with search frictions on the labour market. The analysed tax reform partially shifts the tax burden from domestic to foreign producers and lowers marginal costs of domestic production [...]
- Redistributive Effect and the Progressivity of Taxes and Benefits: Evidence for the UK, 1977â2018
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2022-03-09 11:11:25 UTC
By: Herault, Nicolas ; Jenkins, Stephen P.
:We apply the Kakwani approach to decomposing redistributive effect into average rate, progressivity, and reranking components using yearly UK data covering 1977–2018. We examine cash and in-kind benefits, and direct and indirect taxes. In addition, we highlight an empirical implementation issue – the definition of the reference (‘pre-fisc’) distribution. Drawing on an innovative counterfactual approach, our empirical analysis shows that trends in the redistributive effect of cash benefits are largely associated with cyclical changes in average be [...]
- Firm Inattention and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy: A Text-Based Approach
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-03-07 14:01:13 UTC
By Wenting Song and Samuel Stern
This paper provides direct evidence of the importance of firm attention to macro-economic dynamics. We construct a text-based measure of firm attention to macro-economic news and document firm attention that is polarized and countercyclical. Differences in attention lead to asymmetric responses to monetary policy: expansionary monetary shocks raise market values of attentive firms more than those of inattentive firms, and contractionary shocks lower values of attentive firms by less. We use the measure to calib [...]
- Governing an Ocean of Plastics
by Raimund Bleischwitz in Project Syndicate, 2022-03-02 12:50:48 UTC
BREMEN – Images of plastic pollution in the ocean and on beaches are now commonplace, and the problem is likely to get worse. Last week, the OECD’s first Global Plastics Outlook revealed a dramatic increase in the plastic waste leaked into aquatic environments. That report came only a month after the World Wildlife Fund for Nature released a study that projects a doubling of microplastics in the ocean over the next few decades. While there are promising innovations that extract plastic from the ocean or intercept it in rivers, these projects will barely make a dent in the amount of plastic [...]
- Sanzioni economiche: il diavolo Ã¨ nei dettagli
by Stagista 2 in La Voce, 2022-03-01 09:07:12 UTC
Le sanzioni sono uno strumento di coercizione politica che utilizza la leva economica. Quelle approvate nel 2014 contro Mosca hanno dato pochi risultati perché sono state aggirate. Oggi le misure sono mirate a obiettivi specifici, ma il pericolo resta.
Evoluzione ed efficacia delle sanzioni economiche
Le sanzioni economiche rappresentano importanti strumenti di politica estera che si frappongono tra simboliche azioni politico-diplomatiche (come il ritiro degli ambasciatori e delle delegazioni nazionali) e strumenti molto coercitivi, come il conflitto armato.
Le sanzioni poggiano [...]
- New and Novel ARCH Model Appication (Seriously)
by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations, 2022-02-28 12:22:00 UTC
The Variability and Volatility of Sleep: An Archetypal Approach By: Hamermesh, Daniel S. (Barnard College); Pfann, Gerard A. (Maastricht University) Abstract: Using Dutch time-diary data from 1975-2005 covering over 10,000 respondents for 7 consecutive days each, we show that individuals' sleep time exhibits both variability and volatility characterized by stationary autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity: The absolute values of deviations from a person's average sleep on one day are positively correlated with those on the next day. Sleep is more variable on weekends and among peop [...]
- Long-Memory Neural Nets
by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations, 2022-02-28 12:12:00 UTC
Fractional SDE-Net: Generation of Time Series Data with Long-term Memory By: Kohei Hayashi ; Kei Nakagawa Abstract: In this paper, we focus on generation of time-series data using neural networks. It is often the case that input time-series data, especially taken from real financial markets, is irregularly sampled, and its noise structure is more complicated than i.i.d. type. To generate time series with such a property, we propose fSDE-Net: neural fractional Stochastic Differential Equation Network. It generalizes the neural SDE model by using fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index la [...]
- Information impact on Market Performance
by Inaki Villanueva in Applied economist, 2022-02-22 09:44:00 UTC
I realized I never mentioned� this famous paper �( or here ) in this blog.� The idea that the availability of more information increases agents' wellbeing has always been theoretically sound.� Jensen, on this paper, used a key technological event to prove the theory empirically.� "When information is limited or costly, agents are unable to engage in optimal arbitrage. Excess price dispersion across markets can arise, and goods may not be allocated efficiently. In this setting, information technologies may improve market performance and increase welfare. Between 1997 and 2001, mobile phone serv [...]
- Deep Recurrent Neural Nets with Long Short Term Memory
by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations, 2022-02-12 13:01:00 UTC
Again. LTSM may be emerging as very big deal in recurrent NN modeling. I blogged on it before (e.g. here ) but I still don't understand it deeply. Does anyone? Maybe it's just a device for avoiding the vanishing-gradient problem (not that that isn't important); maybe it's more. This new paper is very well done and features LSTM prominently. The DONUT Approach to EnsembleCombination Forecasting By: Lars Lien Ankile ; Kjartan Krange Abstract: This paper presents an ensemble forecasting method that shows strong results on the M4Competition dataset by decreasing feature and model selection as [...]
- Online tutoring helps â a little
by Joanne in Linking and Thinking on Education by Joanne Jacobs, 2022-02-09 16:30:15 UTC
U.S. Education Secretary Miguel Cardona wants schools to provide 30 minutes of tutoring, three times a week to every student who’s fallen behind during the pandemic.
That sort of intensive tutoring has proven to be effective — and logistically challenging. And expensive.
Photo: Julia M. Cameron/Pexels
Can online tutoring help “Covid kids” catch up? Ed Week ‘s Stephen Sawchuk reports on a new study that finds signs of hope.
Benefits were slight, but researchers believe “more tutoring time would have yielded stronger results,” writes Sawchuk. Students who got the most tutoring made the most pro [...]
- Electricity and Firm Productivity: A General-Equilibrium Approach
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-02-07 17:39:56 UTC
By Stephie Fried and David Lagakos
Many policymakers view power outages as a major constraint on firm productivity in developing countries. Yet empirical studies find modest short-run effects of outages on firm performance. This paper builds a dynamic macroeconomic model to study the long-run general-equilibrium effects of power outages on productivity. Outages lower productivity in the model by creating idle resources, depressing the scale of incumbent firms and reducing entry of new firms. Consistent with the empirical literature, the mode [...]
- Affordable housing
by email@example.com (Urbanomics) in Urbanomics, 2022-02-07 00:25:00 UTC
Affordable housing in cities is one of the biggest public policy challenges facing us. Apart from being the biggest expenditure in a typical household budget, it's also the most important determinant in many things in our lives - where we live, what our job is, and how we live. It determines the fates and fortunes of cities, regions, and even countries. And it's also the main contributor to one of the biggest problems facing us, inequality, ... housing inequality, not income inequality, primarily determines how much wealth inequality there is in most Western countries. Striking snippet about [...]
- Monetary Policy and Endogenous Financial Crises
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-02-06 04:40:28 UTC
By Fabrice Collard, Frédéric Boissay, Jordi Galì and Cristina Manea
We study whether a central bank should deviate from its objective of price stability to promote financial stability. We tackle this question within a textbook New Keynesian model augmented with capital accumulation and microfounded endogenous financial crises. We compare several interest rate rules, under which the central bank responds more or less forcefully to inflation and aggregate output. Our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy affects the probability [...]
- I robot fanno studiare di piÃ¹
by Segugio 1 in La Voce, 2022-01-28 10:38:46 UTC
L’automazione dei processi produttivi cambia il mercato del lavoro. Offre anche opportunità. Ma le competenze necessarie a svolgere le nuove professioni sono diverse da quelle dei lavoratori attuali. E i giovani rispondono iscrivendosi all’università.
Robot e il mercato del lavoro
Sull’impatto delle nuove tecnologie sul mercato del lavoro il dibattito è aperto ormai da diversi anni, alimentato dalla crescente preoccupazione che molte delle mansioni svolte dagli esseri umani possano essere automatizzate .
I robot industriali sono senza dubbio tra le tecnologie di automazione che n [...]
- Les agents Ã©conomiques rÃ©pondent-ils vraiment aux incitations ?
by Thomas Renault in Contrepoints, 2022-01-26 03:30:43 UTC
L’ane de Buridan entre deux opinions LACMA credits Ashley Van Haeften (CC BY 2.0)
Eh voilà, c’est la rentrée ! J’ai endossé hier après-midi mon costume de super-héros (enfin une veste quoi !) afin d’enseigner l’économie à une armée de nouveaux étudiants assoiffés de connaissance. Et comme chaque année, après une introduction classique « blablabla l’économie c’est cool » , le cours commence sur les 10 principes de l’Économie, chapitre issu de l’ouvrage Economics de Mankiw et Taylor.
Et là arrive le quatrième principe : « les agents économiques répondent aux incitations » . En économie, un [...]
- Typo in Directed Technical Change and the British Industrial Revolution
by firstname.lastname@example.org (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2022-01-25 22:58:00 UTC
I hate reading my papers after they're published as there is usually some mistake somewhere. Unfortunately, I have to read them to do more research. I just found a typo in our 2021 paper in JAERE . Equation (8) should look like this: In the published paper, there is a missing Gamma in the second term.� I also noticed a couple of issues in the text of " Energy quality " published in Ecological Economics in 2010. One is in the introduction and is debatable: "Fuel and energy quality is not neccessarily fixed". This should be or instead of and or are instead of is. But it really isn't important. T [...]
- Reddito delle donne: sempre un passo indietro agli uomini
by Massimo Taddei in La Voce, 2022-01-25 09:04:38 UTC
Il Bilancio di genere presentato dalla Ragioneria generale dello stato mostra una forte disuguaglianza tra i redditi di uomini e donne, anche nelle fasce più alte. E il sistema fiscale non incentiva la partecipazione delle donne al mercato del lavoro.
La distribuzione diseguale dei redditi
Il Bilancio di genere 2020 , pubblicato a gennaio 2022 dalla Ragioneria generale dello stato, è un importante strumento per fare il punto sulla posizione delle donne italiane nell’economia e nella società e su come le politiche pubbliche influenzano i divari di genere. La pubblicazione del documen [...]
- Some long-term observations before the Federal Reserve will change the overnight rate
by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2022-01-24 16:26:00 UTC
Five years ago, we wrote in this blog about the strict proportionality between the CPI inflation and the actual interest rate defined by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, R . Briefly, the cumulative interest rate is just the cumulative CPI times 1.4. There are periods when the interest rate deviates from the long-term inflation trend, which has been almost linear since 1972. Here, we extend the observational dataset and discuss the most probable reason why the FRS actually not control inflation by presenting the actual economic force behind price inflation, as we presented [...]
- Revisions to employment data during 2020 and 2021 : Reassessing labor market conditions after the 2020 recession
by ? in FRED blog, 2022-01-24 14:00:00 UTC
The FRED Blog recently featured an ALFRED graph to discuss a revision to the methodology used by Realtor.com to report housing inventory data. Today, we return once more to ALFRED, the archive of historical versions (or vintages) of FRED data, to discuss revisions to employment data.
The ALFRED graph above shows 12 different vintages of total nonfarm employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The graph doesn’t display the legend, to leave more room for the data ( graph with legends ). The solid black line shows, as of January 7, 2022, the monthly changes in total nonfarm employ [...]
- The Consequences of Banks Pursuing a "Double Bottom Line" as the Federal Reserve Prioritizes Climate Change Risks
by Matthew E. Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2022-01-23 12:55:00 UTC
�China features state owned enterprises (SOEs) that pursue a "double bottom line".� They simultaneously seek to earn profit and to please the powerful Central Government.� Relative to their private sector counterparts, these Chinese SOE firms receive special treatment. They can often access subsidized energy, land and capital.� Facing such low factor prices such firms use more resources and this creates distortions because the opportunity cost of one firm using scarce resources is that another more productive firm does not use those resources. Macroeeconomists continue to study the implication [...]
- 46. Informe 2021 de CooperaciÃ³n al Desarrollo de Ãfrica: producciÃ³n, educaciÃ³n y calidad de vida,1995-2020. Revista RSES.
by MCG Blogs de EconomÃa in Asociación de Estudios Euro-Americanos: Desarrollo internacional de América, Europa y otras áreas, 2022-01-17 19:56:00 UTC
Informe sobre África 2021: Industry, Education, Development and Quality Of Life In 53 African Countries, 1995-2020, Guisan, M.C., Exposito, P. Abstract Publicado en Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies PÁGINA EN ELABORACIÓN: EN ENERO DE 2022 INCLUIREMOS ALGUNAS DE LAS PRINCIPALES CONCLUSIONES DEL INFORME DE COOPERACIÓN CON EL DESARROLLO DE ÁFRICA. [...]
- Riformare il sistema fiscale europeo: la gestione del debito
by Massimo Taddei in La Voce, 2022-01-14 23:03:51 UTC
Negli ultimi anni, si è sempre più diffusa l’idea che le regole del Patto di stabilità e crescita siano datate. Una proposta per modificarle basata su due pilastri: la revisione delle regole fiscali e la creazione di un’Agenzia europea del debito.
In un precedente contributo , abbiamo illustrato la nostra recente proposta sulla modifica delle regole fiscali del patto di stabilità e crescita. In questo articolo, presentiamo la seconda parte di questa proposta: il piano di spostare una parte del debito pubblico dei paesi Ue sotto l’ombrello di una Agenzia europea del debito ( European De [...]
- Does Inattentiveness Matter for DSGE Modelling? An Empirical Investigation
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-01-12 23:47:59 UTC
By Jenyu Chou, Joshy Easaw and Patrick Minford
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the empirical performance of the standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in its usual form with full-information rational expectations and compare it with versions assuming inattentiveness- namely sticky information and imperfect information data revision. Using a Bayesian estimation approach on US quarterly data (both realtime and survey) from 1969 to 2015, we find that the model with sticky information fits best an [...]
- Inflation Heresies
by Dani Rodrik in Project Syndicate, 2022-01-11 09:35:32 UTC
CAMBRIDGE – The specter of inflation is once again stalking the world, after a long period of dormancy during which policymakers were more likely to be preoccupied by price deflation. Now, old debates have resurfaced on how best to restore price stability. Should policymakers step on the monetary and fiscal brakes, by reducing spending and raising interest rates – the orthodox approach to fighting inflation? Should they instead move in the opposite direction by lowering interest rates, a route followed by Turkey’s central bank under the direction of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan? Or should [...]
- Financial Constraints, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and the Cyclicality of Investment
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-01-04 16:55:53 UTC
By Cooper Howes
While investment in most sectors declines in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock, investment in the manufacturing sector increases. Using manually digitized aggregate income and balance sheet data for the universe of U.S. manufacturing firms, I show this increase is driven by the types of firms that are least likely to be financially constrained. A two-sector New Keynesian model with financial frictions can match these facts; unconstrained firms are able to take advantage of the decline in the user cost of capit [...]
- How Do We Nudge "Behavioral" Decision Makers to Adapt to Emerging Climate Risks?
by Matthew E. Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2022-01-04 14:57:00 UTC
�An excellent new NBER Working Paper t itled "Mandated vs. Voluntary Adaptation to Natural Disasters: The Case of U.S Wildfires" has been published.� The authors have assembled a great data set to document that building codes cause upgrades of properties such that subsequent wildfires cause lower damage to property.� This is a highly optimistic adaptation paper and it puts Government at the center of achieving adaptation progress.� The authors argue that building codes are a binding constraint such that in the absence of this constraint that people would have chosen to build lower quality stru [...]
- The impact of U.S. employer-sponsored insurance in the 20th century
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2021-12-31 18:46:13 UTC
By Vegard Nygaard and Gajendran Raveendranathan
The introduction of employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) in the 1940s led to the largest decline in the uninsurance rate in U.S. history. To study the fiscal and welfare implications of this insurance expansion, we endogenize the selection of workers into jobs with and without ESI in a general equilibrium life-cycle model where consumers face idiosyncratic health shocks. Our model rationalizes non-targeted empirical patterns related to ESI coverage between 1940 and 2010 and in recent cross-secti [...]
- Annual Review 2021
by email@example.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2021-12-30 06:11:00 UTC
I've been doing these annual reviews since 2011. They're mainly an exercise for me to see what I accomplished and what I didn't in the previous year.� This was the first year since I have been back living in Canberra in 2007 that I spent the entire year in the Canberra region. In fact, it is the first year since 1991 that I didn't fly on a plane. It's not that unusual for me not to leave my country for a year. I didn't travel outside of Australia in 2019. This year, with a two year old and random snap lockdowns happening in the first part of the year, we were not in the mood to travel anywhere [...]
- On the relationship between unemployment and late credit card payments
by ? in FRED blog, 2021-12-27 14:00:00 UTC
The first shaded region on the FRED graph above indicates the 2008-09 Great Recession. In that recession, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (red line, right axis) nearly doubled from 5% in December 2007 to 9.5% in June 2009. At the same time, seasonally adjusted credit card delinquency rates (blue line, left axis) increased from 4.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007 to 6.8% in second quarter of 2009. In short, as workers became unemployed, some stopped making on-time credit card payments.
Research by Athreya, Sánchez, Tam, and Young (2015) shows how this relationship can emerge in a mod [...]
- Unintended Effects From the Expansion of the Non-Contributory Health System in Peru
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2021-12-24 03:45:02 UTC
By Jonas Nauerz and Jose Torres
Over the last two decades, the Peruvian government has made great efforts to improve access to health care by significantly augmenting the coverage of the non-contributory public health care system Seguro Integral de Salud (SIS). This expansion has a positive impact on welfare and public health indicators, as it limits the risk of catastrophic health-related costs for previously uninsured individuals and allows for the appropriate treatment of illnesses. However, it also entails some unintended consequences [...]