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- Altern ist (nicht) lustig
by Monika BÃ¼tler in BATZ.ch, 2017-02-20 13:01:44 UTC
Der Beitrag erscheint unter dem selben Titel im HSG Focus 01/2017.
Das Knie knirscht, der Rücken schmerzt, die Falten werden tiefer. Mein Jüngster meinte vor einiger Zeit, dass ich von hinten eigentlich jung aussähe – von vorne hingegen…. Altern ist nicht lustig. Dennoch: Fast alle möchten alt werden, ein immer grösserer Teil der Bevölkerung schafft es auch. Noch vor 20 Jahren kannte man zwar bereits die wachsenden Finanzierungslücken der Alterssicherung, man wusste allerdings herzlich wenig darüber, wie es den älteren Menschen geht. Materiell, gesundheitlich, sozial, und vor all [...]
- Liquidity Transformation and Open-end Funds
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2017-02-20 12:14:26 UTC
“A key structural vulnerability from asset management activities is the potential mismatch in open-ended funds between the liquidity of fund investments and daily redemption of fund units.” Financial Stability Board , January 2017 In the aftermath of Britain’s July 2016 vote to exit the European Union, six U.K. open-end property funds with nearly £15 billion in assets suspended redemptions. These funds had routinely engaged in an extreme version of liquidity transformation : offering investors the ability to convert their shares into cash daily on demand, while holding highly illiquid commerci [...]
- Can we attract good political leaders? Hint â yes
by Nicholas Gruen in Club Troppo, 2017-02-20 09:01:40 UTC
Can a democracy attract competent leaders, while attaining broad representation? Economic models suggest that free-riding incentives and lower opportunity costs give the less competent a comparative advantage at entering political life. Moreover, if elites have more human capital, selecting on competence may lead to uneven representation. This paper examines patterns of political selection among the universe of municipal politicians and national legislators in Sweden, using extraordinarily rich data on competence traits and social background for the entire population. We document four new fact [...]
- How Do Environmental Economists Know that the Social Cost of Carbon is $42 a Ton?
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2017-02-19 17:43:00 UTC
The National Academy of Sciences has released a brand new report that you can download here that has a definitive feel on stating the academic environmental economics' community consensus on the social cost of carbon. In this blog post, I will clearly state that I do not believe this number nor do I believe that such a number can be estimated. It is a moving target that changes every day and it may be actually declining over time. My recent NBER Paper offers one induced innovation theory for why this can happen. Here is the citation; Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Eng [...]
- Il debito (che ti) pubblico
by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics, 2017-02-18 17:36:00 UTC
Poc'anzi, su Twitter, commentando gli ultimi exploit della piccola vedetta lombarda, rosa d'invidia per il successo di questo blog, e perché tutte le interlocuzioni politiche che ha con tanta alacrità cercato si sono rivelate fallimentari, mi sono reso conto di non avervi mai raccontato uno dei più gustosi fra i tanti aneddoti che sei anni di dibattito mi hanno consegnato. Un fardello a volte un po' pesante, che condivido con voi, senza fare nomi (perché io sono il piccolo scrivano fiorentino, non la piccola vedetta lombarda), dato che ritengo essenziale farvi capire qual è il modus operandi d [...]
- Replacing Wenger
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2017-02-17 14:13:39 UTC
Should Arsene Wenger go? If so who should replace him? In considering these questions we must remember three important economic principles.
One is that in hiring someone what matters is putting round pegs into round holes. Productivity often results not from the intrinsic quality of a worker, but from the match between his skills and the job. What matters is getting the right man for the job, not necessarily the best.
Boris Groysberg has shown this (pdf) . He looked at 20 former managers of General Electric – a company with a reputation for producing good bosses – who moved to senior positions [...]
- Condivisone del rischio, confronto tra Europa e Stati Uniti
by Valentina Milano e Pietro Reichlin in La Voce, 2017-02-17 09:16:20 UTC
Il maggiore grado di condivisione del rischio che si ha negli Stati Uniti rispetto all’Eurozona è dovuto principalmente a mercati finanziari più integrati. In Europa è più importante il contributo delle istituzioni pubbliche, soprattutto dopo la creazione dei meccanismi di aiuto sovra-nazionali.
Una federazione condivide il rischio
Una misura del successo delle federazioni o delle unioni monetarie è il grado di condivisione del rischio ( risk sharing ), cioè la capacità di assorbire gli shock specifici, o non comuni, al Pil dei paesi membri. Un grado di condivisione elevato implica che una cad [...]
- My Recent Writing on Climate Economics
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2017-02-17 00:19:00 UTC
Here is my new piece about the Economic effects of California's AB32. � � Here is m y Harvard Business Review piece that dusts off the Porter Hypothesis and applies its logic to corporate climate change adaptation. � Finally, here is my new co-authored NBER working paper on the adaptation effects of climate skeptics. � This paper was stimulated by my interest in J ohn Campbell's Ely Lecture.� [...]
- Jobless Recoveries: The Interaction between Financial and Search Frictions
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2017-02-16 16:31:53 UTC
By Dennis Wesselbaum
This paper establishes a link between labor market frictions and financial market frictions. We present empirical evidence about the relation between search and financial frictions. Then, we build a stylized DSGE model that features this channel. Simulation excercises show that the model with this channel generates a strong internal propagation mechanism, replicates stylized labor market effects of the Great Recession, and, most importantly, creates a jobless recovery.
Nice to see a paper that ties together the jobless rec [...]
- How Do Skeptics Affect Our Collective Ability to Adapt to Climate Change?
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2017-02-16 15:12:00 UTC
Daxuan Zhao and I have just released a new NBER Working paper on climate change adaptation. �Recall that climate change mitigation focuses on slowing down and even reducing our production of greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation refers to how an economy's growth and individual well being is affected by the stock pollutant externality. Many "climate warriors" such as Joe Romm rail against climate skeptics because such individuals vote against carbon taxes. �Our paper has nothing to say about this topic because there is no government in our paper. Instead, we study how an economy's ability to ada [...]
- Triskaidekaphobia When People Buy a House (podcast 102)
by Marc Abrahams in Improbable Research, 2017-02-15 15:40:36 UTC
*** NEWS!! This podcast episode is the FINAL episode that we’ll be doing together with CBS. After this, the Improbable Research podcast will have a NEW broadcast collaborator! (You will always be able to find it here at Improbable.com, of course!) We’ll have details for you soon, about that. ***
IN THIS EPISODE: Does a house fall in value if its street address includes the “unlucky” number 13? A research study explores that very question, and we explore that study, in this week’s Improbable Research podcast .
This week, Marc Abrahams discusses a published triskaidekophobia study. Physicis [...]
- House prices as leaky bucket
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2017-02-14 14:04:49 UTC
The Resolution Foundation says (pdf) that the typical pensioner now has a higher income, after housing costs, than the typical worker. Which poses the question: do younger people have a legitimate complaint here? I think the answer’s yes.
First, though, let’s see what their grievances are not.
They can have no complaint about rising pension incomes because of the triple lock. Quite the opposite. The power of compounding means this will benefit tomorrow’s pensioners – ie today’s youngsters – more than it helps today’s old folk. (Those who complain that the lock won’t last ignore the fact that i [...]
- Balance Sheet Blues
by Stephen Williamson in Stephen Williamson: New Monetarist Economics, 2017-02-14 00:04:00 UTC
We're starting to hear some public discussion about Fed balance sheet reduction. For example, Jim Bullard has spoken about it, and Ben Bernanke has written about it. Balance sheet reduction is part of the FOMC's "Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. Quoting from scripture: The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings in a gradual and predictable manner primarily by ceasing to reinvest repayments of principal on securities held in the SOMA. The normalization plan also states that balance sheet reduction will occur after interest rate increases happen, and tha [...]
- The trouble with experts
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2017-02-13 14:13:28 UTC
Paul raises an important issue: what’s wrong with experts? I suspect the answer is: plenty.
These many faults, however, don’t include the failure to foresee the financial crisis. It’s not the job of economists to act as soothsayers, any more than we expect mechanics to predict the next fault with our car, or doctors our next illness. There’s a lot of good economists can do without prophecy.
Instead, one problem is that experts – in public at least – don’t sufficiently identify what Charlie Munger called the edge of their competence: they don’t say what they don’t know. The problem with economi [...]
- The Future of the Euro
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2017-02-13 13:27:17 UTC
“Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.” ECB President Mario Draghi, 26 July 2012. In 2012, the ECB faced down a mortal threat to the euro: fears of redenomination (the re-introduction of domestic currencies) were feeding a run away from banks in the geographic periphery of the euro area and into German banks. Since Mario Draghi spoke in London that July, the ECB has done things that once seemed unimaginable, helping to support the euro and secure price stability. For example, since March 2015, the ECB has acquired [...]
- On the Origins and Consequences of Racism
by Nicholas Gruen in Club Troppo, 2017-02-13 06:08:00 UTC
We use a novel method to measure racism at both the individual and the country level. We show that our measure of racism has a strong negative and significant impact on economic development, quality of institutions and education. We then test different hypotheses concerning the origin of racism and its channels of impact in order to establish causality. We find that racism is not correlated with any possible measure of coexistence of different racial or ethnic groups, like ethno-linguistic fragmentation, share of migrants, or ethnically-motivated conflicts among others. Racism has a negative e [...]
- El Crimen y sus Costos, Parte I
by Equipo Foco EconÃ³mico in Foco Económico, 2017-02-12 21:05:44 UTC
En todos los ámbitos de la política pública, el objetivo fundamental es asignar los recursos escasos de la manera más eficiente para mejorar el bienestar de los ciudadanos. El crimen produce grandes reducciones en el bienestar: distorsiona los gastos públicos y privados, genera daños y pérdidas irreparables, y hasta altera nuestras rutinas diarias.
En esta entrada les voy a contar cuánto cuesta el crimen en América Latina y el Caribe (ALC) en base a la nueva publicación “Los costos del crimen y la violencia. Nueva evidencia y hallazgos en América Latina y el Caribe” . ALC es la región más vi [...]
- O Capital de Marx depois da MEGA2
by Hugo da Gama Cerqueira in Meu gabinete de curiosidades, 2017-02-12 13:03:00 UTC
A Fundação Rosa Luxemburgo organizou em janeiro deste ano uma conferência comemorativa dos 150 anos de publicação do primeiro volume de O Capital . Entre as apresentações realizadas no evento, inclui-se uma plaestra proferida por Michael Heinrich sobre a recepção de O Capital depois da publicação dos volumes da segunda seção da nova Marx-Engels-Gesamtausgabe , a MEGA2. Michael Heirinch, que visitará o Brasil em 2017, é um dos expoentes da chamada Neue Marx-Lektüre e autor de diversos livros sobre a obra de Marx, entre os quais Die Wissenschaft vom Wert. Die Marxsche Kritik der politischen Ökon [...]
- The Economics of One California Coastal Commission Ruling
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2017-02-11 18:42:00 UTC
Economists talk about trade-offs quite often. Read this case study about the Newport Beach Banning Ranch Development project. Here is the developer's webpage. A Direct Quote from the OC Register NEWPORT BEACH – After a more than 13-hour marathon meeting of the California Coastal Commission, a room packed with some 100 demonstrators exploded in cheers Wednesday when commissioners voted to deny a proposed development in Newport Beach on Banning Ranch, an oil field covered in vernal pools, scrub and grassland and home to endangered species. “This is a project we have to get right,” said Commi [...]
- Contro lâevasione Ã¨ meglio lâaccertamento
by Laura Pagani in La Voce, 2017-02-10 22:33:21 UTC
Nel 2016 l’attività di contrasto all’evasione dell’Agenzia delle entrate ha fatto recuperare 19 miliardi di gettito. Un risultato dovuto al successo della voluntary disclosure sui capitali all’estero. Ma gli effetti di strumenti più tradizionali, come l’accertamento, sono più persistenti.
Il bilancio dell’Agenzia delle entrate
L’Agenzia delle Entrate ha presentato i risultati relativi all’attività di contrasto dell’evasione svolta nel 2016. Malgrado le difficoltà legate alla riduzione del numero dei dirigenti e al blocco delle assunzioni, il risultato complessivo, ovvero 19 miliardi di maggio [...]
- Banxico aumentÃ³ su tasa de referencia Â¿EstÃ¡ pecando de "halcÃ³n"? o hay algo mÃ¡s...
by Alejandro Villagomez in Tintero Económico Diario, 2017-02-10 17:40:00 UTC
Banxico anunció ayer una nueva alza en su tasa de referencia, de 50 puntos bases, lo que la coloca en 6.25%. Esto validó el denominado "consenso del mercado". Este concepto es muy elegante para un proceso poco claro. El mercado es un conjunto de analistas del sector financiero en su mayoría. De éstos, pocos presentan sus predicciones sustentadas en un análisis serio, los que se convierten en líderes y el resto es efecto manada, ampliamente documentado en la literatura. Un análisis que recomiendo es el de Gabriel Casillas, economista en jefe de Banorte, quien apostó a los 50pb y lo fundamentó. [...]
- Flipping in the Housing Market
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2017-02-09 22:07:43 UTC
Charles Ka Yui Leung and Chung-Yi Tse
We add arbitraging middlemen — investors who attempt to profit from buying low and selling high — to a canonical housing market search model. Flipping tends to take place in sluggish and tight, but not in moderate, markets. To follow is the possibility of multiple equilibria. In one equilibrium, most, if not all, transactions are intermediated, resulting in rapid turnover, a high vacancy rate, and high housing prices. In another equilibrium, few houses are bought and sold by middlemen. Turnover is slow, fe [...]
- Extra innings start with a runner on second base
by Tyler Cowen in Marginal Revolution, 2017-02-09 14:40:47 UTC
Here is a description of the proposed rule change . Felix Salmon asked :
I know nothing about baseball, but wouldn’t this give even more of an advantage to the team batting first?
I would expect the opposite (NB: I am not suggesting a weakness in Felix’s analytical abilities, only that British people don’t usually “get” baseball). The team batting second in the inning always has more information than the team batting first, because the home team (which bats second) knows what the visitors scored in their half of the inning.
The closer you are to “runs,” the more valuable is this differential [...]
- "Incentives" as bigotry
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2017-02-09 13:44:12 UTC
Amber Rudd says she’s stopping child refugees entering the country because “we do not want to incentivise perilous journeys to Europe particularly by the most vulnerable children.” This should remind us of an old trick of the Tory party – the ideological misuse of the language of incentives to justify their own prejudices.
For example, we’ve been told for years that the rich need high pay and low taxes to incentivize effort. This, though, is deeply doubtful. Financial incentives can crowd out intrinsic motivations : bankers’ serial criminality (rigging Libor and FX markets; PPI mis-selling; an [...]
- Unequal opportunities, unequal growth
by ? in VoxEU.org, 2017-02-08 00:00:00 UTC
Inequality can be both good and bad for growth. Unequal societies may be holding back one segment of the population while helping another. This column exploits US data to argue that inequality affects negatively the future income growth of the poor and pos [...]
- Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2017-02-07 17:39:55 UTC
Thomas Piketty ; Emmanuel Saez ; Gabriel Zucman
This paper combines tax, survey, and national accounts data to estimate the distribution of national income in the United States since 1913. Our distributional national accounts capture 100% of national income, allowing us to compute growth rates for each quantile of the income distribution consistent with macroeconomic growth. We estimate the distribution of both pre-tax and post-tax income, making it possible to provide a comprehensive view of how government redistribution affects inequality. Average pre-tax national income per a [...]
- Globalization and Wage Inequality
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2017-02-07 17:38:58 UTC
Globalization has been blamed for rising inequality in rich and poor countries. Yet the views of many protagonists in this debate are not based on evidence. To help form an evidence-based opinion, I review in this paper the theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between globalization and wage inequality. While the initial analysis that started in the early 1990s focused on a particular mechanism that links trade to wages, subsequent studies have considered several other channels, and the quantitative assessment of the size of these influences ha [...]
- The Life-cycle Benefits of an Influential Early Childhood Program
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2017-02-07 17:36:29 UTC
Jorge Luis García ; James J. Heckman ; Duncan Ermini Leaf ; María José Prados
This paper estimates the long-term benefits from an influential early childhood program targeting disadvantaged families. The program was evaluated by random assignment and followed participants through their mid-30s. It has substantial beneficial impacts on health, children’s future labor incomes, crime, education, and mothers’ labor incomes, with greater monetized benefits for males. Lifetime returns are estimated by pooling multiple data sets using testable economic models. The overall rate of return [...]
- Intergenerational Mobility and Preferences for Redistribution
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2017-02-07 17:35:34 UTC
Alesina, Alberto ; Stantcheva, Stefanie ; Teso, Edoardo
Using newly collected cross-country survey and experimental data, we investigate how beliefs about intergenerational mobility affect preferences for redistribution in five countries: France, Italy, Sweden, U.K., and U.S.. Americans are more optimistic than Europeans about intergenerational mobility, and too optimistic relative to actual mobility. Our randomized treatment that shows respondents pessimistic information about mobility increases support for redistribution, mostly for equality of opportunity policies. A strong po [...]
- Do State Laws Protecting Older Workers from Discrimination Reduce Age Discrimination in Hiring? Experimental (and Nonexperimental) Evidence
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2017-02-07 17:34:37 UTC
David Neumark (University of California-Irvine) ; Ian Burn (University of California-Irvine) ; Patrick Button (Tulane University) ; Nanneh Chehras (University of California-Irvine)
We provide evidence from a field experiment — a correspondence study — on age discrimination in hiring for retail sales jobs. We collect experimental data in all 50 states and then relate measured age discrimination — the difference in callback rates between old and young applicants — to variation across states in antidiscrimination laws offering protections to older workers that are stronger than the [...]
- The Economic Consequences of Family Policies: Lessons from a Century of Legislation in High-Income Countries
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2017-02-07 17:32:35 UTC
Claudia Olivetti ; Barbara Petrongolo
We draw lessons from existing work and our own analysis on the effects of parental leave and other interventions aimed at aiding families. The outcomes of interest are female employment, gender gaps in earnings and fertility. We begin with a discussion of the historical introduction of family policies ever since the end of the nineteenth century and then turn to the details regarding family policies currently in effect across high-income nations. We sketch a framework concerning the effects of family policy to motivate our country- and micro [...]
- Locus of Control and Investment in Training
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2017-02-07 17:31:22 UTC
Marco Caliendo ; Deborah A. Cobb-Clark ; Helke Seitz ; Arne Uhlendorff
This paper extends standard models of work-related training by explicitly incorporating workers’ locus of control into the investment decision. Our model both differentiates between general and specific training and accounts for the role of workers and firms in training decisions. Workers with an internal locus of control are predicted to engage in more general training than are their external co-workers because their subjective expected investment returns are higher. In contrast, we expect little relationshi [...]
- Will Pollution Increase During Mr. Trump's Presidency?
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2017-02-06 15:40:00 UTC
The NY Times provides a vague overview concerning Mr. Pruitt's first steps at EPA. �Here I'd like to sketch out some key determinants of short run pollution dynamics. I will focus on the environmental accounting vocabulary of scale, composition and technique effects. 1. �Air pollution, water pollution and GHG emissions could all rise if the scale of the overall economy rises under President Trump. �All else equal (and ignoring technological change), a boom increases consumption and production and pollution increases. 2. �Composition refers to which industries and energy sources are a growing s [...]
- Targeting which informal firms might formalize and bringing them into the tax system
by David McKenzie in Development Impact, 2017-02-06 14:14:00 UTC
I have worked for a while with different attempts to get informal firms to register their businesses and become formal. We have tried giving them information and actually paying them to formalize , lowering the cost of registering to zero, offering them accountants and increasing enforcement . [...]
- One health economics for healthy people, agriculture and environment
by ? in World Bank Blogs, 2017-02-06 13:13:00 UTC
Man in field with cattle. Pakistan. Photo: Curt Carnemark / World Bank
Disease Outbreaks: A Constant Threat
The World Health Organization called for “heightened vigilance and strengthened surveillance efforts” last week to prevent and d [...]
- An Open Letter to Congressman Patrick McHenry
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2017-02-06 13:04:54 UTC
“Despite the clear message delivered by President Donald Trump in prioritizing America’s interest in international negotiations, it appears that the Federal Reserve continues negotiating international regulatory standards for financial institutions among global bureaucrats in foreign lands without transparency, accountability, or the authority to do so. This is unacceptable.” Letter from Representative Patrick McHenry, Vice Chairman, House Financial Services Committee, to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, January 31, 2017 Dear Vice Chair McHenry, We find your January 31 letter to Federal Res [...]
- Let's not debate immigration
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2017-02-05 13:50:09 UTC
Yvette Cooper wants a debate about immigration. I think she’s wrong.
As Stephen Bush points out, Labour has been calling for such a debate for the past 20 years – and we’ve been having one, insofar as the mindless drivel that passes for political discourse can be called a debate.
And it’s done Labour no good at all.
One reason for this is that the debate is largely dishonest. Rather than admit the brute fact that many people just don’t like foreigners, anti-immigrationists hide behind claims that immigrants are bad for wages or public services. Except in a few pinch points, or to a small exten [...]
- Larrikin youth: new evidence on crime and schooling
by Nicholas Gruen in Club Troppo, 2017-02-05 12:23:23 UTC
By Tony Beatton ; Michael P. Kidd ; Stephen Machin ; Dipa Sarkar
This paper reports new evidence on the causal link between education and male youth crime using individual level state-wide administrative data for Queensland, Australia. Enactment of the Earning or Learning education reform of 2006, with a mandatory increase in minimum school leaving age, is used to identify a causal impact of schooling on male youth crime. The richness of the matched (across agency) individual level panel data enables the analysis to shed significant light on the extent to which the causal impact reflects inca [...]
- Some Climate Adaptation Research Topics for Young Economists to Work On
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2017-02-04 17:46:00 UTC
Based on the updated webpage, it appears that President Trump's EPA is taking �climate change adaptation seriously . �I am not surprised because the President owns major pieces of land in many coastal cities. �This "self interest" of property owners has been one of my themes on the microeconomics o adaptation. � �Building on my 2010 Climatopolis book, � �I wrote a new piece for PERC titled " Climatopolis Revisited ". �In this blog post, I'd like to touch on a few academic themes that merit new research. We need new research on the following topics; 1. � How costly is migration ? �If sea level [...]
- Â¿AumentarÃ¡ su Tasa de Referencia Banxico la PrÃ³xima Semana?
by Alejandro Villagomez in Tintero Económico Diario, 2017-02-04 02:10:00 UTC
La próxima semana se reúne la Junta de Gobierno de Banxico y la pregunta es si subirá su tasa de referencia y en cuánto. Entre analistas parece dominar la idea de que sí habrá aumento y será de al menos 50 puntos base. En esta ocasión yo difiero y no creo que la aumente, y en caso de hacerlo lo haría cuando mucho en 25 puntos base. Las razones son: a) como lo he mencionado, y como lo muestra este paper que publiqué junto con Rodolfo Cermeño y Javier Orellana en el 2012, “ Monetary policy rules in asmall open economy: an application to Mexico” , en el Journal of Applied Economics, " we find t [...]
- Por quÃ© es necesario revisar el actual sistema de copago farmacÃ©utico
by Sergi JimÃ©nez in Nada Es Gratis, 2017-02-03 06:00:29 UTC
por Jaume Puig-Junoy , Beatriz González López-Valcárcel
n.e.: Dada la actualidad del tema, le hemos pedido a dos extraordinarios especialistas sobre copagos una breve reflexión sobre el sistema de copagos español y sus opciones de futuro.
Cuatro años después del RDL16/2012, el fantasma del copago se pasea de nuevo en una dirección imprecisa por la pasarela política española. La nueva ministra de sanidad ha sucumbido a la tentación fácil de ventilarlo para captar la atención de los medios, aunque haya tenido que rectificar en menos de 24 horas . Aunque no es su ministerio el que paga la factur [...]
- Reformas judiciales, incentivos policiales y tasas de arresto
by Catherine Rodriguez in Foco Económico, 2017-01-31 21:52:05 UTC
Este lunes, 30 de enero de 2017, comenzó a ser implementado en Colombia el nuevo Código de Policía. Nadie en nuestro país cuestiona la necesidad de reformar un Código que regía esta institución desde hace más de 40 años. Se requería por supuesto incorporar los inmensos cambios que ha tenido la sociedad colombiana en estas cuatro décadas. De manera importante, debían ser incorporados también herramientas que permitieran alcanzar el objetivo de incrementar la seguridad ciudadana en un marco en donde, después de la firma del acuerdo con las FARC, el proceso de implementación y la construcción de [...]
- Learning Efficiency Shocks, Knowledge Capital and the Business Cycle: A Bayesian Evaluation
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2017-01-31 16:40:35 UTC
By Alok Johri and Muhebullah Karimzada
We incorporate shocks to the efficiency with which firms learn from production activity and accumulate knowledge into an otherwise standard real DSGE model with imperfect competition. Using real aggregate data and Bayesian inference techniques, we find that learning efficiency shocks are an important source of observed variation in the growth rate of aggregate output, investment, consumption and especially hours worked in post-war US data. The estimated shock processes suggest much less exogenous varia [...]
- Some Comments on Nordhaus (2016)
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2017-01-31 14:51:00 UTC
Professor William Nordhaus is one of the giants of environmental economics. � I will be very happy when he shares the Nobel Prize with Martin Weitzman and Partha Dasgupta. � His new climate change economics paper is posted here and it has been written up i n Bloomberg News here. � With that said, �it greatly surprises �me that Professor Nordhaus writes out dynamic CGE models that do not incorporate the microeconomics of adaptation. �In his December 2016 paper, �Professor Nordhaus writes out his equation (3) on page 6. �This "structural" equation maps average temperature into global damage caus [...]
- Is the centre-left dead?
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2017-01-31 14:00:12 UTC
Branko Milanovic raises a question: is liberalism (or centre-leftism) dead?
There’s a precedent here. In the 1970s the combination of rising inflation and high unemployment killed off post-war social democracy in much of the west: Marglin and Schor’s The Golden Age of Capitalism provides a great analysis of this. The precise date of the death varied from country to country. In France it came in Mitterrand’s “ austerity turn ” in 1983. In the UK it perhaps came with Callaghan’s claim that you can’t spend your way out of recession in 1976. Whatever, the fact is that in much the of the west old-s [...]
- California Energy Efficiency Exceptionalism?
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2017-01-31 04:38:00 UTC
The NY Times has published a touching obituary for Dr. Arthur Rosenfeld. � A physicist by training, Dr. Rosenfeld championed energy efficiency for the state of California. �Below, I present a typical "Rosenfeld Curve". �This graph highlights that California's energy consumption per-capita diverged from the rest of the nation's starting in 1975. �Dr. Rosenfeld argued that California policy deserves the credit for this differential trend. �Dr. Arik Levinson has argued that this claim is sharply over-stated. My own work has studied energy consumption in California focused on 1. The residential se [...]
- The nuanced case for labor migration
by firstname.lastname@example.org (Gulzar Natarajan) in Urbanomics, 2017-01-30 19:30:00 UTC
It has taken Donald Trump and Brexit to make the intellectuals realise that unfettered trade is not desirable. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the IMF cautioned against unqualified capital account liberalisation. As I blogged earlier , the same realisation is also dawning on the adverse consequences of automation. Another area that is equally contentious is the impact of migration from developing countries on labor markets in developed economies. There is a constant in all the four areas - Dani Rodrik. Even as intellectuals and the mainstream academia dug their heels in and re [...]
- When Government Misguides
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2017-01-30 13:42:08 UTC
"That [comparative advantage] is logically true need not be argued before a mathematician; that it is not trivial is attested by the thousands of important and intelligent men who have never been able to grasp the doctrine for themselves or to believe it after it was explained to them." Paul Samuelson Governments play favorites. They promote residential construction by making mortgages tax deductible. They encourage ethanol production by subsidizing corn. They boost sales of electric cars by offering tax rebates. These political favors usually diminish, rather than increase, aggregate income. [...]
- Randomization Tests for Regime Switching
by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations, 2017-01-30 13:34:00 UTC
I have always been fascinated by distribution-free non-parametric tests, or randomization tests, or Monte Carlo tests -- whatever you want to call them. �(For example, I used some long ago in papers like Diebold-Rudebusch 1992 .) �They seem almost too good to be true: exact finite-sample tests without distributional assumptions! �They also still seem curiously underutilized in econometrics, notwithstanding, for example, the path-breaking and well-known contributions over many decades by� Jean-Marie Dufour , Marc Hallin ,�and others. For the latest, see the fascinating new contribution by Jean- [...]
- Ingrid Harvold Kvangraven â What Can We Learn from Alternative Theories of Economic Development?
by email@example.com (Mike Norman) in Mike Norman Economics, 2017-01-29 16:22:00 UTC
Short review of Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Development by Erik Reinert (Tallinn University of Technology), Jayati Ghosh (Jawaharlal Nehru University) and Rainer Kattel (Tallinn University of Technology). In addition to the strong bias towards Neoclassical Economics, the editors also identify Eurocentric and Anglophone biases in the field.… The volume also takes historical development processes seriously and has devoted the first part of the book to the study of historical development, including Chinese, Indian, Muslim, Ottoman, Nordic, and African perspectives. Finally, se [...]
- "Buy America" under President Trump
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2017-01-28 18:36:00 UTC
In 2015, I co-authore d a paper about the consequences of "Buy America" legislation. �Now that I see that President Trump will require "Buy America" (see the pipeline case study ) our paper offers some insights about the near future. � For details about " Buy America" click here. � Our 2015 paper studied public procurement of transit buses. �Such buses are the buses that urbanites (including me on the #8 and #12) ride around cities. � Our puzzle in our paper is that Singapore, China, South Korea, and Japan produce buses that are more fuel efficient than U.S buses and the market price of these [...]
- Retirement Behavior in the U.S. and Europe
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2017-01-27 17:56:32 UTC
By Jochem de Bresser, Raquel Fonseca and Pierre-Carl Michaud
We develop a retirement model featuring various labor market exit routes: unemployment, disability, private and public pensions. The model allows for saving and uncertainty along several dimensions, including health and mortality. Individuals’ preferences are estimated on data from the U.S. and Europe using institutional variation across countries. We analyze the roles of preferences and institutions in explaining international heterogeneity in retirement behavior. Preliminary estima [...]
- It's baaaack - the return of industrial policy!
by firstname.lastname@example.org (Gulzar Natarajan) in Urbanomics, 2017-01-27 17:44:00 UTC
Theresa May's ten pillar vision for Britain's industrial future signals the definitive return of industrial policy to the mainstream in developed economies. The symbolism is unmistakable. Nearly four decades after Ms Margaret Thatcher led the global movement to get governments out of business, another female British Prime Minister has signalled a reversal.� Details may vary, but it cannot be missed that government is baaaack in the business of "picking winners". The green paper identifies life sciences, ultra-low emission vehicles, industrial digitalisation, nuclear and creative industries as [...]
- Global Supply Chains and Import Taxes
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2017-01-27 14:28:00 UTC
As I read Dr. Krugman's column today, I started to think about "value added" and import tariffs. �Suppose that a pair of sneakers sold in the U.S features the following global supply chain. �The base of the shoe are made in the U.S and then Mexico makes the laces and then the laces and the base are assembled in the U.S to make the final sneaker. � �If there is no market for Nike laces then how would a tax authority know how much of the sneaker's value was produced outside of the U.S? Some authority would need to guess how much of each U.S sold product was produced outside of the United States [...]
- Longer lifespans largely not to blame for rising health care spending
by Austin Frakt in The Incidental Economist, 2017-01-25 12:00:00 UTC
The following originally appeared on The Upshot (copyright 2017, The New York Times Company).
American life spans are rising , and as they are, health care spending is, too. But longevity is not contributing to the spending increase as much as you might think.
The median age in the United States will rise to about 40 by 2040 , up from 37.7 today. That’s partly because the average American lives three years longer today — reaching nearly 79 years old — than in 1995. The Congressional Budget Office credits population aging for a substantial portion of its projected increase in health care spen [...]
- Firing Costs, Misallocation, and Aggregate Productivity
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2017-01-24 15:59:55 UTC
By José-María Da-Rocha, Marina Mendes Tavares and Diego Restuccia
We assess the quantitative impact of firing costs on aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) in a dynamic general-equilibrium framework where the distribution of establishment-level productivity is not invariant to the policy. Firing costs not only generate static factor misallocation, but also a worsening of the productivity distribution contributing to large aggregate TFP losses. Firing costs equivalent to 5 year’s wages imply a drop in TFP of more than 20 percent. Factor m [...]
- On Social Tables, Inequality and Pre-Industrial Societies
by bbatiz in NEP-HIS blog, 2017-01-24 09:44:12 UTC
“Towards an explanation of inequality in pre-modern societies: the role of colonies and high population density”
by Branko Milanovic (City University of New York)
Abstract: Using the newly expanded set of 40 social tables from pre-modern societies, the paper tries to find out the factors associated with the level of inequality and the inequality extraction ratio (how close to the maximum inequality have the elites pushed the actual inequality). We find strong evidence that elites in colonies were more extractive, and that more densely populated countries exhibited lower extraction ratios. We p [...]
- âWhen There Isnât Enough Churning of Big Corporations, the Economy Stagnatesâ: Q&A with Bernard Yeung
by Guy Rolnik in Pro-Market, 2017-01-23 18:39:26 UTC
Bernard Yeung, one of the predominantly non-U.S.-born economists who laid the foundations of scientific research on economic power concentration, offers insights relevant to the U.S. economy. Part 1 of a three-part interview.
Bernard (Bernie) Yeung, the dean of the National University of Singapore Business School—and frequent collaborator of Randall Morck , a professor at the University of Alberta School of Business—is a member of a relatively small group of scholars who studied how corporations were growing by using their economic and political power rather than by making t [...]
- What Bitcoin Has Become
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2017-01-23 13:00:14 UTC
“Bitcoin is the currency of the Internet: a distributed, worldwide, decentralized digital currency. Unlike traditional currencies such as dollars, bitcoins are issued and managed without any central authority whatsoever: there is no government, company, or bank in charge of Bitcoin. As such, it is more resistant to wild inflation and corrupt banks.” www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/ We are now in the ninth year of Bitcoin, the first coins (or “Genesis Block”) having been mined (that is, awarded for solving a computational problem) on January 3, 2009. Yet, Bitcoin has clearly failed to meet the gran [...]
- In praise of dullness
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2017-01-22 12:50:45 UTC
Simon Kuper makes a good point: we need, he says , to “bore ourselves with important stuff.” This point generalizes beyond the context he discusses.
It’s true in investing. “Split your money between cash and tracker funds and then forget it” gets you at least four-fifths of the way. But it’s boring. By contrast, great stories can be horribly misleading for investors: MoneyWeek’s "end of Britain” report was a more interesting story than “shares will probably rise a little because they normally do” – but it was much less true. And “exciting” growth stocks should usually be avoided unless they ar [...]
- Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and Unemployment Volatility
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2017-01-19 21:08:58 UTC
BY Sergio Lago Alves
The literature has long agreed that the canonical DMP model with search and matching frictions in the labor market can deliver large volatilities in labor market quantities, consistent with US data during the Great Moderation period (1985-2005), only if there is at least some wage stickiness. I show that the canonical model can deliver nontrivial volatility in unemployment without wage stickiness. By keeping average US inflation at a small but positive rate, monetary policy may be accountable for the standard deviations of [...]
- How to keep the American Dream intact?
by paragwaknis in Musings of the Sorts, 2017-01-18 21:01:08 UTC
The Equality of Opportunity Project is an impressive research venture using big data to explore new pathways to upward mobility in the American society. One of the pictures that came out of this project and that has made quite a few rounds of tweets is the following one:
It shows the percentage of children earning more than parents over the years according to when a child was born. So if you were born in 1940 there was higher likelihood for you to earn more than your parents than if you are child born in 80’s. It is a very interesting data in itself and the paper itself makes an interesting r [...]
- Elections and development #NeverLetAGoodDeedGoUnpunished
by Nicholas Gruen in Club Troppo, 2017-01-18 04:39:24 UTC
Do anti-poverty programs sway voters? Experimental evidence from Uganda
By: Blattman, Christopher ; Emeriau, Mathilde ; Fiala, Nathan
A Ugandan government program allowed groups of young people to submit proposals to start skilled enterprises. Among 535 eligible proposals, the government randomly selected 265 to receive grants of nearly $400 per person. Blattman et al. (2014) showed that, after four years, the program raised employment by 17% and earnings 38%. This paper shows that, rather than rewarding the government in elections, beneficiaries increased opposition party membership, campaign [...]
- International Business Cycle and Financial Intermediation
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2017-01-17 16:06:21 UTC
By Tamas Csabafi, Max Gillman and Ruthira Naraidoo
The world-wide financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 caused bankruptcy and bank failures in the US and many other parts such as Europe. Recent empirical evidence suggests that this simultaneous drop in output was strongest in countries with greater financial ties to the US economy with important cross border deposit and lending. This paper develops a two-country framework to allow for banking structures within an international real business cycle model. The banking structure across countries is m [...]
- Celtic Phoenix or Leprechaun Economics?
by Aidan Regan in The Irish Economy, 2017-01-16 17:16:25 UTC
Readers might be interested in this UCD Geary working paper , which was featured in the Sunday Business Post yesterday. The title of the paper is “ Celtic Phoenix or Leprechaun Economics: the Political Economy of an FDI-led Growth Model in Europe”.
Our core argument is that Ireland’s post-crisis economic recovery was driven by foreign direct investment (FDI) from Silicon Valley, and whilst this growth model was made possible by Ireland’s low corporate tax rates, it was also a result of inward migration, with these firms using Ireland to directly access the European labour market.
We also demon [...]
- Rising Quality of Life Inequality in "Communist" China
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2017-01-16 16:51:00 UTC
CNN has just p ublished a good piece where I am quoted about pollution exposure inequality in China. � My research on this topic can be found here and here and here . � �Consider a large number of people who differ with respect to their income levels. �This income can be spent on various consumption and investment goods. �Consumption goods include cell phones, ice cream, sneakers etc. �Investment goods includes stocks, bonds,doctors visits, dentist visits, paying USC's tuition. �These investment goods payoff a future rate of return either by generating future income or by raising your human ca [...]
- GDP-linked Bonds: A Primer
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2017-01-16 13:45:07 UTC
“We call for further analysis of the technicalities, opportunities, and challenges of state-contingent debt instruments, including GDP-linked bonds.” G20 Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors, 23-24 July 2016, Chengdu, China Gross government debt in advanced economies has surpassed 105% of GDP, up from less than 75% a decade ago. Some countries with especially large debts—including Greece (177%), Italy (133%) and Portugal (129%)—are viewed not only as a risk to the countries themselves, but to others as well. As a result, policymakers and economists have been looking for ways to make it e [...]
- Metrics Monday: Dealing with Imperfect Instruments I
by Marc F. Bellemare in Marc F. Bellemare, 2017-01-16 11:00:47 UTC
Happy New Year! After running out of easy, off-the-top-of-my-head topics for this series, I have decided to go with a friend’s suggestion of blogging econometrics papers whose results are useful for applied work.
Given that I am working on a paper in which I am dealing with an instrumental variable that is only plausibly exogenous–that is, the exclusion restriction is likely to hold, but there is a small chance that it does not–I thought I should begin the year with two posts on how to deal with imperfect instruments.
This does not mean that these posts will discuss what to do with plain-old [...]
- Should we rely on economic forecasts? The wisdom of the crowds and the consensus forecast
by Guest author in OECD Insights, 2017-01-16 09:32:24 UTC
Brian Dowd, FocusEconomics
Laurence J. Peter, a Canadian educator and author, is often referenced as saying, “an economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.”
Economics and especially economic forecasting are often given a bad rap. Many people think of forecasting as akin to licking a finger and testing the wind. However, there is a science to it.
Forecasting is essentially attempting to predict the future and predicting the future behavior of anything, much less something as complex and enormous as an entire economy, is not an easy t [...]
- What's a Macro Model Good For?
by Stephen Williamson in Stephen Williamson: New Monetarist Economics, 2017-01-15 22:38:00 UTC
What's a macro model? It's a question, and an answer. If it's a good model, the question is well-defined, and the model gives a good answer. Olivier Blanchard has been pondering how we ask questions of models, and the answers we're getting, and he thinks it's useful to divide our models into two classes, each for answering different questions. First, there are "theory models," ...aimed at clarifying theoretical issues within a general equilibrium setting. Models in this class should build on a core analytical frame and have a tight theoretical structure. They should be used to think, for examp [...]
- The French economy needs âhelicopter moneyâ to boost labor force growth and avoid deflation
by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2017-01-13 20:46:00 UTC
In 2013, we published a paper “ Does Banque de France control inflation and unemployment?” We demonstrated that the French economy would likely sink into a longer period of deflation or very low inflation rate after 2013. This is an excerpt from the paper discussing how Banque de France could boost labour force growth and inflation by flooding the French economy with money. Instead of this simple measure, there were several depressing years of contingency measures introduced by the ECB. This update uses data for the past three years and proves that austerity is a counterproductive approach. We [...]
- On Why It is Important to Distinguish Between Consumption and Expenditures When Testing the Permanent Income Hypothesis
by Josh in The Everyday Economist, 2017-01-13 19:23:10 UTC
A central idea in modern macroeconomics is the permanent income hypothesis. The basic idea is as follows. Suppose that you could dichotomize your income into a permanent component and a temporary component. The permanent income hypothesis suggests that you would base your consumption decisions on the permanent component.
Why would people behave this way?
Well, individuals want to smooth the marginal utility of their consumption over time. To understand this, consider the following example. Suppose that you varied your consumption proportionately with your current income and that your income fl [...]
- IPAâs weekly links
by Jeff Mosenkis (IPA) in Chris Blattman, 2017-01-13 14:44:06 UTC
Guest post by Jeff Mosenkis of Innovations for Poverty Action .
As described in a long piece from New York Magazine , millions of people have been told by a Harvard psychology website they are secretly racist, despite no consensus on the underlying research. You may recall the debate where Hillary Clinton referenced “implicit bias” responding to a question about police shootings. She was referring to a prominent line of research in psychology based on the Implicit Association Test (IAT). The computerized test measures millisecond differences in reaction times and has been promoted by promine [...]
- As we predicted in 2010,a longer deflation period has started in Australia
by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2017-01-13 14:26:00 UTC
Six years ago we wrote a paper on price inflation and unemployment in Australia. Here, we compare our predictions against measurements. Concluding this paper we made a projection into 2050: “As a final remark on the evolution inflation (DGDP) and unemployment in Australia we present two predictions as based on the labour force projection provided by the Productivity Commission (2005) and the coefficients in (7) and (8) estimated for the period after 1994: a 1 =3.299, a 2 =-0.0259; b 1 =-2.08, b 2 =0.0979. We assume that there will be no change in the definitions of all involved macroeconomic v [...]
- In the long run, the rate of unemployment in Canada will be growing. A four year update.
by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2017-01-11 21:46:00 UTC
Here, I continue presenting cases of accurate predictions based on the link between real GDP and unemployment, which is a modified Okun’s law in an integral form. This is a four-year update for Canada. The model prediction is getting better and better! Canada provides an excellent set of macroeconomic data, which can be described by a few deterministic links with a high level of reliability and confidence. We have retrieved real GDP (GK per capita) data from the Total Economic Database and the rate of unemployment from the OECD . In 2012, we published a paper in the Journal of Theoretical and [...]
- The Okun's integral law for Australia revisited
by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2017-01-11 19:12:00 UTC
Three and a half years ago, I reported that Australia gives the best example of accurate quantitative prediction of unemployment in developed countries and therefore I felt satisfaction. Historically, we published a paper on Okun's in developed countries in the Journal of Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields in 2012. We presented the first version of the modified Okun’s law for developed countries including Australia. The model was estimated before 2010 and we used only data available in 2011. Briefly, the model is estimated by the LSQ technique applied to the integral versio [...]