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by ? in Grasping Reality with the Invisible Hand, 2016-05-28 15:45:00 UTC
Must-Read: Pascal Seppecher, Isabelle Salle, and Dany Lang: Is the Market Really a Good Teacher?: "Our learning model is an ever-adapting process that puts a significant weight on exploration vis-�-vis exploitation...
...We show that decentralize [...]
- Partisan Climate Politics Continues
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-05-27 19:51:00 UTC
Back in 2010, I published my Climatopolis book arguing that the economics of climate adaptation becomes the key issue as global GHG emissions will continue to rise because of the global free rider problem and rising fossil fuel consumption. �This is why I started to work on the micro economics of climate change adaptation and the role that cities play in helping us to adapt to climate change. In a nutshell, I have argued that the world is urbanizing and the cities have an edge in adapting to climate change. �We just need a more flexible capital stock with options built in so we can re-optimize [...]
- Endogenous Urban Disamenities: The Case of Public Urination in NYC
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-05-27 14:15:00 UTC
Early work in environmental and urban economics treated a city's non-market characteristics as fixed and exogenous. So, think of San Francisco's beautiful climate and topography and views. New work in this field acknowledges that there are also "endogenous amenities" that arise due to the types of industries and people who cluster in a city and the ways they live their lives (i.e smoking propensities). For example, San Francisco now has great restaurants (due to the wealth and sophistication of the Twitter crew and the people who seek out and can afford the SF lifestyle) and a serious homele [...]
- Markets as selection devices
by ? in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-05-27 12:45:00 UTC
One of the stronger defences of free markets is that they act as selection mechanisms. To the allegations that stock markets aren’t efficient because investors are irrational or that firms can’t maximize profits because bosses don’t know [...]
- Manuale di logica eurista: il contante (quarto addendum)
by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics, 2016-05-25 09:50:00 UTC
(... per i contributi precedenti potete cliccare qui ... ) Ricevo da un amico questa lettera: Ti prego di meditare - ovviamente dopo cose più serie!!! - sul concetto di contanti: 1) 100 euro contanti dopo 50 passaggi sono sempre 100 euro. 100 euro pagati con credit card al 2% a passaggio finiscono in buona parte a VISA e Mastercard!! 2) non hai bisogno di nessuna autorizzazione per pagare ( nè governativa nè bancaria) 3) chiedi ad un argentino come è andata con le carte di credito ( bloccate) e come è andata con il contante ( rimasto US dollars cash) 4) La libertà è un valore, anche se spesso [...]
- Less aimless, a closer look
by The Arthurian in The New Arthurian Economics, 2016-05-25 08:00:00 UTC
In the previous post I showed household debt as a portion of total private non-financial debt. About half, but it varies, and it varied higher on the approach to crisis. Back in the normal range now, high, but high in the normal range and trending down.
I highlighted two peaks that look similar. They show similar rates of increase on the approach to peak. They show similar rates of decrease on the decline from peak -- and faster decline than increase for both.
In addition, they both peak near 0.54 on the vertical scale. And they both occur during times of superior economic performance. I'm [...]
- EspaÃ±a, serÃ¡ el paÃs mÃ¡s envejecido de Europa
by J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz in Nada Es Gratis, 2016-05-24 05:03:09 UTC
de J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz (@conderuiz) y Clara I. González (@GlezClarisa)
El proceso de envejecimiento es un fenómeno común en los principales países desarrollados y supone un reto para sus economías y especialmente para sus sistemas de bienestar. En el caso de España, recogíamos en un post anterior que los indicadores más recientes muestran que el proceso de envejecimiento continúa avanzando. En esta ocasión, compararemos con otros países industrializados y veremos que de cara a las próximas décadas nos enfrentaremos a un proceso más intenso.
Principalmente, tres elementos están detrás. En pr [...]
- Donald Trump, Treasury Debt and the Dollar
by Stephen G. Cecchetti in Huffington Post Business, 2016-05-24 04:01:07 UTC
Note to editors: This post is coauthored with authorized HuffPo blogger Kermit Schoenholtz .
The time has come to start weighing in on presidential candidate Donald Trump's statements on economic policy. In this post we examine his comments about U.S. government debt. After saying that he is the " king of debt " and that he "loves debt," Mr. Trump recently went on suggest that if interest rates were to rise, he would seek to " make a deal " on U.S. Treasury debt. In his words , "I could see long-term renegotiations where we borrow long term at very low rates." He also called this action: "ref [...]
- Bad arguments against Marxism
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-05-23 12:57:55 UTC
One of the problems with being a Marxist is that one is the subject of silly misunderstandings. Here are a handful of the bad arguments against Marxism I often see, and my replies.
“Don’t you realize central planning has failed?”
We do. But if you want to find people who still believe in central planning today, you should look not among Marxists but in company boardrooms . It’s bosses who believe complex systems can be controlled well from the top down, not we Marxists.
In fact, many of us point to the abundant evidence that worker (pdf) ownership and control increases (pdf) well- being a [...]
- How the term âmainstream economicsâ became mainstream: a speculation
by Beatrice Cherrier in INET Blog, 2016-05-23 09:18:09 UTC
It's a recurring problem on economic social networks. "Mainstream" is only 9 characters long, therefore much used on twitter, blogs or facebook as a shortcut for
what economists at leading institution publishing in leading journals find acceptable . There is considerable agreement that this sociological definition of "mainstream" offered by David Colander, Ric Holt and Barkley Rosser aptly reflects the common use of the term . Yet, after a few minutes, though, questions inescapably erupt: how much has the mainstream evolved since the 1930s or the 1980s, [...]
- Lâeconomia neoclassica: una pseudoscienza. Una discussione tra Sylos Labini e Boldrin
by Francesco Sylos Labini in ROARS - Return on Academic Research, 2016-05-22 06:29:12 UTC
Nel corso della presentazione del mio libro Rischio e Previsioni, cosa ci dice la scienza sulla crisi (Laterza, 2016; Springer 2016 ) al Dipartimento di Economia dell’Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia, cui hanno partecipato il prof. Monica Billio (direttore del Dipartimento di Economia) e il prof. Andrea Zorzi , vi è stato un dibattito con l’economista Michele Boldrin . Poiché a mio giudizio sono stati sollevati vari temi d’interesse generale sulla scientificità dell’economia neoclassica, che ho discusso varie volte anche nel passato , prima di proporre il video dell’incontro (vedi in fondo) [...]
- The Phillips Curve and Inflation
by thebusinesscycleblog in The business cycle blog, 2016-05-21 18:08:29 UTC
My slides for the SF Fed Symposium, “The Future of Inflation”: While the reduced-form Phillips Curve appears near death, this can be explained by structural factors and the links between inflation and resource utilization are alive and well.
A lot of related research is reviewed, including reduced-form empirical work ( Ball and Mazumder (2011) , Blanchard (2016) ), the literature on inflation and long-term unemployment ( Ball and Mazumder (2014) , Kiley (2015) ), lack of participation as slack ( Erceg and Levin (2014) ), DSGE models ( Del Negro, Giannoni, and Schorfheide (2015) , Christian [...]
- Economia neoclassica: scienza o pseudoscienza?
by Francesco Sylos Labini in Il Fatto Quotidiano, 2016-05-19 07:39:51 UTC
Nel corso della presentazione del mio libro Rischio e Previsioni, cosa ci dice la scienza sulla crisi (Laterza, 2016 – in inglese Springer 2016 ) al Dipartimento di Economia dell’Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia, cui hanno partecipato il prof. Monica Billio (direttore del Dipartimento di Economia) e il prof. Andrea Zorzi , vi è stato un dibattito con l’economista Michele Boldrin . Poiché a mio giudizio sono stati sollevati vari temi d’interesse generale sulla scientificità dell’economia neoclassica, che ho discusso varie volte nel passato, prima di proporre il video dell’incontro (vedi in f [...]
- An empirical equilibrium model of a decentralized asset market
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-05-18 02:35:12 UTC
By Alessandro Gavazza
I estimate a search-and-bargaining model of a decentralized market to quantify the effects of trading frictions on asset allocations, asset prices and welfare, and to quantify the effects of intermediaries that facilitate trade. Using business-aircraft data, I find that, relative to the Walrasian benchmark, 18.3 percent of the assets are misallocated; prices are 19.2-percent lower; and the aggregate welfare losses equal 23.9 percent. Dealers play an important role in reducing trading frictions: In a market with no dealer [...]
- Wealth and Income Inequality in the Early Modern Period
by guidoalfani in NEP-HIS blog, 2016-05-17 17:05:07 UTC
Comparing Income and Wealth Inequality in Pre-Industrial Economies: Lessons from 18th-Century Spain
By Esteban A. Nicolini (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) and Fernando Ramos Palencia (Universidad Pablo de Olavide)
Abstract: In this new working paper on preindustrial inequality, Nicolini and Ramos Palencia build upon their earlier work on income inequality in eighteenth-century Old Castile (Nicolini and Ramos Palencia 2015) by looking into one particularly important, and difficult to assess, aspect: how to reconstruct, for a given preindustrial society, estimates of both income and wealth in [...]
- Green Jobs Revisited: Will Efforts to Combat Climate Change Increase Income Inequality in the Short Run?
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-05-17 13:27:00 UTC
Tom Steyer may want to call up some Berkeley economists this morning. Here is a direct quote from the NY Times that refers to him ; “We object to the political agenda of the A.F.L.-C.I.O. being sold to a job-killing hedge fund manager with a bag of cash.” What is the story here? First, who is Tom Steyer? He made a hedge fund fortune and he is now actively involved in progressive politics as he seeks to elect officials who will tackle climate change. I respect his Risky Business effort to educate the public about the risks of climate change. Why are the construction unions so angry with [...]
- Will a News Surge in San Francisco Nudge Local Officials to Tackle the Homeless Challenge?
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-05-17 01:01:00 UTC
June 29th 2016 will offer an interesting natural experiment regarding San Francisco's homeless problem. � The New York Times reports today� �that all of the local media outlets (including the San Fran Chronicle and other Internet, radio and TV) will "flood the zone" with extensive reporting and coverage of the homeless challenge. � The goal here is to cause a change in public policy by raising awareness and by suggesting solutions that might be cost effective. Given the great interest in estimating "causal effects", this will be an interesting test of whether "the media matters". �Can extensiv [...]
- Ethiopian Rural Household Surveys
by Masa in Devecondata, 2016-05-16 12:14:00 UTC
A panel household survey conducted by Stefan Dercon and his colleagues in 1989, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2004, and 2009. The details are available on his website . Panel data conducted 1989-1995 are downloadable at the above webpage. 1997 can be obtained by contacting IFPRI. Sample 15 villages with 1477 households in total were surveyed three times, twice in 1994 and once in 1995. Six of the 15 villages were surveyed in 1989 as well. For more detail, see this documentation . In the 1997 survey, 9 additional villages were surveyed. Variables Household composition, education, asset ownership, cr [...]
- Donald Trump, Treasury Debt and the Dollar
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-05-16 11:56:15 UTC
The time has come to start weighing in on presidential candidate Donald Trump’s statements on economic policy. Today, we examine his comments about U.S. government debt. After saying that he is the “king of debt” and that he “loves debt,” Mr. Trump recently went on suggest that if interest rates were to rise, he would seek to “ make a deal ” on U.S. Treasury debt. In his words , “I could see long-term renegotiations where we borrow long term at very low rates.” He also called this action: “refinance debt with longer term.” Mr. Trump appears to assume that his sensibilities as real estate mogul [...]
- Risks Associated with Low Inflation
by thebusinesscycleblog in The business cycle blog, 2016-05-14 22:31:58 UTC
Recent papers from the Federal Reserve on
The factors that influence the degree to which low inflation impedes economic performance: Arias, Erceg, and Trabandt (2016)
The interaction of the zero-lower bound on nominal interest rates and the expected rate of inflation in a standard class of macroeconomic models: Hills, Nakata, and Schmidt (2016) [...]
- Das Problem der Ãberqualifikation
by Ekkehart Schlicht in Funktionale Staatsfinanzen, 2016-05-14 07:24:00 UTC
Inga Michler schreibt in Die Welt : Top-Akademiker putzen das Möbelhaus, ein Kapitän kontrolliert Pässe, ein Ingenieur fährt Taxi. Jeder siebte Deutsche ist überqualifiziert. Die Gründe für die Job-Missverständnisse sind teils bitter. ... Aktuellen Zahlen des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) zufolge arbeiten mehr als 15 Prozent aller Beschäftigten unterhalb ihres Qualifikationsniveaus. Das ist kein speziell deutsches Problem sondern ist in vielen Industrieländern aufgetreten. Glenda Quintini von der OECD hat dies wohlbekannte Phänomen erneut untersucht und kommt zu de [...]
- Who do you trust and why does it matter?
by brianmlucey in Brian M. Lucey, 2016-05-14 06:59:36 UTC
Would you trust a banker? Stop laughing now…you there, in the back, stop it… Now, seriously, would you? More to the point perhaps, would a banker trust you? And what matter if they did or didn’t? Generalising, how much trust do you place in your business partners up and down the supply chain? In others in the financial system? And does it matter?
There is increasing evidence that trust matters for economic and financial outcomes. Trust is something intangible, but measurable. The World Value Survey , a survey of tens of thousands of persons which takes place every few years, includes question [...]
- Union Giveaways in Air Traffic Control Act Set a Bad Precedent
by James Sherk in The Foundry, 2016-05-13 13:48:50 UTC
The Aviation Innovation Reform and Reauthorization (AIRR) Act contains several reforms that move in the right direction. Notably, it removes America’s air traffic control system from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and establishes it as a federally chartered, non-profit corporation.
But the legislation includes troubling labor provisions. Its supporters seem intent on buying government union support by giving them even more leverage over the public than they now possess.
This sets a terrible precedent for future privatization efforts. Congress should modernize America’s air traffic c [...]
- Optimal Trade Policy, Equilibrium Unemployment and Labor Market Inefficiency
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-05-13 13:00:31 UTC
By Wisarut Suwanprasert
Why do politicians advocate trade protections to save domestic jobs when neoclassical trade models suggest that small open economies should implement free trade? The novel insight of this paper is that trade protections can be rationalized as a second-best policy that improves the domestic welfare when the equilibrium unemployment is different from the constrain-efficient unemployment. To understand the puzzle, I incorporate a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides frictional labor market into the standard Heckscher-Ohlin model [...]
- More Mathiness in Climate Econometrics: Doug Keenan's Climate Change Contest
by email@example.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2016-05-13 01:54:00 UTC
My colleague Robert Kaufmann got an e-mail from Doug Keenan inviting him to participate in his " climate change contest " without the usual $10 submission fee. I hadn't heard about this contest and went to the site to investigate. So, Keenan has produced 1000 time series of 135 observations each that are somehow derived from random numbers and then added a plus 1 or minus 1 per 100 observations trend to some of these. The series have been calibrated so that the they could potentially reproduce in some way the observed global temperature time series from 1880 to the present without an added t [...]
- A Global Marshall Plan for Joblessness?
by Pavlina Tcherneva in New Economic Perspectives, 2016-05-12 16:17:40 UTC
A Global Marshall Plan for Joblessness?
By Pavlina Tcherneva
(Crossposted from INet )
Global unemployment is expected to surpass 200 million people for the first time on record by the end of 2017, according a recent ILO study, and limitations of official statistics suggest that the problem is much larger . As conventional measures increasingly fail to produce tight labor markets and jobless recoveries become the norm, economists grapple with this new reality by calling it secular stagnation and by adjusting upwards the rates of unemployment deemed ‘natural’ — but the human, social and economic [...]
- A Global Marshall Plan for Joblessness?
by Pavlina Tcherneva in Multiplier Effect, 2016-05-12 16:11:12 UTC
The corrosive social and economic effects of what have now become ‘normal’ unemployment levels require new solutions, and trade without full employment exacerbates the problem.
Global unemployment is expected to surpass 200 million people for the first time on record by the end of 2017, according a recent ILO study, and limitations of official statistics suggest that the problem is much larger . As conventional measures increasingly fail to produce tight labor markets and jobless recoveries become the norm, economists grapple with this new reality by calling it secular stagnation and by adjust [...]
- The trouble with the Brexit debate
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-05-12 12:49:30 UTC
How should the Brexit debate be structured, and presented in the media? Two things I’ve seen today pose this question: Vote Leave’s anger at ITV inviting Nigel Farage to debate against David Cameron; and the letter from 196 economists in favour of Remain.
These raise two general issues, which I’m not sure the media handle well.
One is: what to do about counter -advocacy, the fact that some proponents of a case are so awful that they detract from what might be a strong argument?
Vote Leave’s unhappiness at their case being represented by Farage is, I think, justified. He is likely to put the ca [...]
- Does Puerto Rico's Debt Crisis Foreshadow Similar Defaults Threats in U.S Urban Public Sector Union Strongholds?
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-05-12 00:34:00 UTC
Without mentioning the witches from Macbeth, the NY Times engages in some foreshadowing today as it offers the following conjecture; the challenges that Puerto Rico faces today of crumbling services and unpaid bills will play out soon enough in many U.S cities. A Direct Quote: "But mainland residents should not look smugly at Puerto Rico. Across America, dozens of cities, counties and states may be heading down the same financial rabbit hole. Illinois, New Jersey, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Jacksonville, Fla., to name just a few, are all facing their own slowly unspooling financial disasters [...]
- A Global Marshall Plan for Joblessness?
by Pavlina R. Tcherneva in INET Blog, 2016-05-11 10:00:00 UTC
Global unemployment is expected to surpass 200 million people for the first time on record by the end of 2017, according a recent ILO study, and limitations of official statistics suggest that the problem is much larger . As conventional measures increasingly fail to produce tight labor markets and jobless recoveries become the norm, economists grapple with this new reality by calling it secular stagnation and by adjusting upwards the rates of unemployment deemed 'natural' — but the human, social and economic costs of this growing problem are rarely conside [...]
- Lessons from âToo Big to Failâ in the 1980s
by Banking Blogger in NEP-HIS blog, 2016-05-11 09:09:58 UTC
Can a bank run be stopped? Government guarantees and the run on Continental Illinois
Mark A Carlson (Bank for International Settlements) and Jonathan Rose (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)
Abstract: This paper analyzes the run on Continental Illinois in 1984. We find that the run slowed but did not stop following an extraordinary government intervention, which included the guarantee of all liabilities of the bank and a commitment to provide ongoing liquidity support. Continental’s outflows were driven by a broad set of US and foreign financial institutions. These were large, sophist [...]
- Troubled waters: ensuring sustainable fishing and healthy oceans
by ? in World Bank Blogs, 2016-05-10 18:00:00 UTC
This is part of a series of blogs focused on the Sustainable Development Goals and data from the 2016 Edition of World Development Indicators.
Fish is the main animal protein for more than 1 billion people. [[tweetable]]Average worldwide fish consumpti [...]
- Economics vs bankers
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-05-10 12:42:52 UTC
Simon Wren-Lewis says that “finance gets away with so much partly through a process of mystification”, and that economists must help to cut the sector back to size. This is an important point.
One of the great ideological tricks of bankers has been to present their own vested interests in the language of economic logic, thus giving an apparently technocratic justification for what is in reality mere rent-seeking. Not only have politicians fallen for this, but so too have some on the left. They’ve looked at bankers’ misuse of economics, and inferred that economics is an ideological subject used [...]
- How effective is quantitative easing in stimulating economic activity and raising inflation?
by thebusinesscycleblog in The business cycle blog, 2016-05-09 22:24:10 UTC
My main research contributions on this topic have now each been published.
Quantitative easing lowers Treasury and corporate bond yields, but the pass through to corporate bond yields is more modest than that associated with a lower federal funds rate: Kiley (2016)
As a result, overall financial conditions improve by less with quantitative easing than with similar movements in the federal funds rate: Kiley (2014a)
And this evidence is consistent with the more limited stimulus associated with long-term interest rates relative to short-term interest rates: Kiley (2014b) [...]
- Prosperity for All: Coming Soon to a Bookstore Near You
by Roger Farmer in My Economic Window, 2016-05-06 18:28:00 UTC
This is my first post for a while: so, sorry if you missed me. I've been busy writing books and papers. I received the final galley proofs this week for my new book, Prosperity for All: How to Prevent Financial Crises . You can pre-order it from OUP or Amazon and it will ship on September 1st. I also finished three new working papers that I will say more about in future posts. I've been consistent in my criticisms on this blog of attempts by Paul Krugman to revive the IS-LM framework. That's not because I'm opposed to IS-LM as it appeared in its earliest incarnations; the papers by John Hick [...]
- El FMI y las reformas estructurales en el corto plazo
by J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz in Nada Es Gratis, 2016-05-06 05:03:57 UTC
El otro día tuve la ocasión de discutir en el Banco de España capítulo 3 del World Economic Outlook que elabora el FMI regularmente. Este capítulo dedicado a los efectos en el corto plazo de las reformas estructurales me ha parecido tan interesante que me apetece compartirlo con los lectores de nuestro blog.
En estos momentos, el crecimiento potencial de los países industrializados es inferior al que tenían antes de la crisis. Los bancos centrales están implementado políticas monetarias expansivas como nunca antes habíamos visto y donde el margen fiscal está agotado en la mayoría de los paíse [...]
- Weekly links May 6: expensive African cities, lotteries for housing, placebo effects, and moreâ¦
by David McKenzie in Development Impact, 2016-05-05 20:32:00 UTC
I liked the recent Planet Money podcast #698 (a long way home) – there is an interesting discussion of why a lottery is held for access to a housing assistance program in Connecticut, and how they ended up with a lottery rather than other systems of allocating resources – and a great quote about the mishmash of anti-poverty programs in the U.S. which, paraphrasing, is basically “it is not like Congress ever sat down and said what is the best use of the money we set aside to fight poverty” but rather how many different programs have come up over time, all with their own rules and constituencie [...]
- Ethnographic Atlas
by Masa in Devecondata, 2016-05-04 14:12:00 UTC
Compiled by George Peter Murdock (see his obituary in American Anthropologist , 88(3), pp. 682-6, for who he is) and published in 29 successive instalments in the journal ETHNOLOGY between 1962-1980. The data for 862 societies, at the time before their encounter with Europeans, was published in Ethnology , volume 6, number 2 (April 1967) , and then in a hardcover from the University of Pittsburgh Press . Since then, more societies were added, and some of the 1967 data were revised (s ee here �for detail). The final version, compiled by Patrick Gray in World Cultures , vol. 10, issue 1 (1998), [...]
- The Inverse Farm SizeâProductivity Relationship: Asked and Answered?
by Marc F. Bellemare in Marc F. Bellemare, 2016-05-04 10:00:07 UTC
Click here to view the embedded video.
The 2016 MidDev conference , which my colleague Paul Glewwe organizes here at the University of Minnesota every other year, is almost upon us.
One of the papers I am most looking forward to seeing presented at the conference is a new paper on the inverse farm size-productivity relationship by Leah Bevis and Chris Barrett , which Leah will be presenting on Saturday morning in an organized session on agriculture in developing countries.
Briefly, for those of you who may not be familiar with it, the inverse farm size-productivity relationship is the empirica [...]
- Neo-Schumpeterian views of Economic Development Today
by stefanotijerina in NEP-HIS blog, 2016-05-04 08:47:07 UTC
The Theory of Economic Development of J.A. Schumpeter: Key Features
By Iurii Bazhal (Economics Department, National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy)
Abstract: This paper comprises translation into English of the preface of Iurii Bazhal to the first Ukrainian edition of Joseph Schumpeter’s famous fundamental book “The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle” that was translated in Ukrainian and published in 2011 in commemoration of its 100 th anniversary. The paper reveals the contemporary significance of this classical book a [...]
- Â¿En quÃ© idioma deberÃan los inmigrantes hablar a sus hijos?
by Ainhoa Aparicio in Nada Es Gratis, 2016-05-04 05:33:21 UTC
Según la Estadística de Migraciones del INE , el número de extranjeros nacidos y residentes en España en el 2015 era 452.123. Este número refleja probablemente el número de hijos de inmigrantes, aunque podría estar subestimado ya que muchos hijos de residentes en España nacidos en el extranjero tienen nacionalidad española. El hecho de que los hijos de los inmigrantes representen una proporción significativa y creciente no sólo en España sino también en el mundo da relevancia a los aspectos relacionados con su integración social y económica. Un ejemplo del interés por el futuro educativo de [...]
- Nobody knows anything
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-05-03 13:04:59 UTC
Hundreds of pieces will soon be written on what business “leaders” can learn from Leicester City’s triumph . I suspect, though, that the biggest lesson will be ignored – that it vindicates William Goldman’s famous remark that “nobody knows anything.”
City’s players are, mostly, a ragbag of rejects from modest clubs managed by a man whose appointment was greeted with consternation . Very few people took up those 5000-1 odds against them winning the league.
Although such improbable victory is unheard of in football, it is not so unusual in other spheres. Elvis Presley was told to go back to truc [...]
- Socially Efficient Driving in an Economy Featuring Scarce Time and Negative Driving Externalities
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-05-02 21:34:00 UTC
T he UC Energy Institute has an excellent blog . �On this blog, Jim Lazar claims that for every mile of driving that this causes $2 in social costs. He credits Todd Litman with this estimate. � In this blog post, I will use this estimate to show how this affects a social planner's choice of whether she permits a person to commute by slow public transit or by a fast car. � Glaeser, Rappaport and I have studied this issue in the past but we didn't introduce the Pigouvian externality since we were solving for the privately optimal commuting mode. In this blog post, I solve for the socially optima [...]
- Leverage and Risk
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-05-02 12:18:50 UTC
A highly leveraged financial system is one prone to collapse. This notion underlies modern financial regulation: the control of systemic risk requires controlling leverage. And, it is what drives proposals for high capital requirements and to tax leverage . But, as is always the case with regulation, the devil is in the details. For one thing, we need a way to measure leverage. This turns out to be a surprisingly difficult task. Second, while risk varies positively with leverage, risk-taking can increase without increasing leverage, so we need to think about all major forms of risk-taking that [...]
- On Forecasting Variation and Covariation
by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations, 2016-05-02 01:01:00 UTC
One hallmark of a great idea is that it's "obvious" (ex post). Fantastic recent work by Bollerslev, Patton, and Quaedvlieg (BPQ) certainly passes that test. BPQ build on the classic Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard result that the precision with which realized variation and covariation are estimated is time-varying but can be estimated (let's just speak of "variation" for short, whether univariate or multivariate). Put differently, the measurement error in realized variation is heteroskedastic but can be estimated. Hence, for optimal variation prediction, one should presumably weight the recent [...]
- Terza globalizzazione e primo maggio: lavoro, capitale e Costituzione
by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics, 2016-05-01 14:26:00 UTC
Il 01/05/2016 07:25, R A ha scritto: Salve Maestro, Chiarisco subito perché le scrivo, per via di uno dei suoi vari articoli su goofynomics, " Eurodelitto ed Eurocastigo ", ho pianto nelle ultime due ore . Le scrivo quindi per ringraziarla. Sono uno studente di psicologia, appassionato di politica e di altre cose, seguo il suo blog da un anno in silenzio ma adesso, ritrovando quel vecchio articolo che avevo saltato per non so quale motivo, ho sentito questo desiderio di scriverle. Prima era soltanto un professore, divertente, egomaniaco, paziente, colto, sensibile, severo e capace (qui [...]
- Changes in nominal rigidities in Poland â a regime switching DSGE perspective
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-04-27 19:27:12 UTC
By Paweł Baranowski and Zbigniew Kuchta
We estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that allows for regimes Markov switching (MS-DSGE). Existing MS-DSGE papers for the United States focus on changes in monetary policy or shocks volatility, contributing the debate on the Great Moderation and/or Volcker disinflation. However, Poland which here serves as an example of a transition country, faced a wider range of structural changes, including long disinflation, EU accession or tax changes. The model identifies high and low rigidity [...]
- Regulation and Distrust
by Inaki Villanueva in Applied economist, 2016-04-27 14:54:00 UTC
This month I found this very interesting paper by Aghion, Algan, Cahuc and Shleifer (AACS) published in 2008. For long time, it’s been argued that regulation hampers economic performance; what these authors say, however, goes one step further, they argue that regulation hinders social capital, i.e. trust in others. The authors developed a model where there are two equilibria: a good one with a large share of civic individuals and no regulation, and a bad one, where a large share of uncivic individuals supports heavy regulation. As the authors put it “when people expect to live in a civic commu [...]
- The largest IPO of all-time still won't fix Saudi Arabia's problems
by firstname.lastname@example.org (Michael McDonald) in Business Insider, 2016-04-26 18:03:00 UTC
Thomson Reuters The Saudi Arabian sale of Saudi Aramco is already starting to attract widespread attention after Mohammad bin Salman, deputy crown prince of the Kingdom, indicated that an IPO for the state owned giant will proceed next year. That IPO, likely to be for less than 5 percent of the company, is being talked about as a way for Saudi Arabia to raise funds in a time of continued low oil prices. While the additional funding would be a welcome boon – Saudi Aramco would likely be valued at over $2 trillion dollars – the reality is that the IPO only distracts from the Kingdom’s deep well [...]
- Some NYC Public Sector Economics: High Public Hospital Pay and Tax Payer Subsidies
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-04-26 13:54:00 UTC
New York City runs 11 very expensive public hospitals that cater to the city's poor. �The New York Times reports that the Mayor wants to inject $2 billion dollars in subsidies to help the public hospitals to balance their budgets. �There are several interesting pieces of economics here. As the poor's health insurance has improved, many of them have chosen to "vote with their wallet" to seek care from other hospitals and local service providers. �So, the demand for their product is falling. A Direct Quote: "As previously uninsured low-income New Yorkers have gained insurance, they also have gai [...]
- The USAâs First âBelle Ãpoqueâ (1841-1856)
by nmpostelvinay in NEP-HIS blog, 2016-04-26 09:14:31 UTC
America’s First Great Moderation
By Joseph Davis (NBER) and Marc Weidenmier (Claremont – McKenna University, email@example.com )
We identify America’s First Great Moderation, a recession-free 16-year period from 1841 until 1856, that represents the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. Occurring in the wake of the debt-deleveraging cycle of the late 1830s, this “take-off” period’s high rates of economic growth and relatively-low volatility enabled the U.S. economy to escape downturns despite the absence of a central bank. Using new high frequency data on industrial produc [...]
- Decomposing response error to improve consumption survey design
by Jed Friedman in Development Impact, 2016-04-25 23:43:00 UTC
Consumption or income, valued at prevailing market prices, is the workhorse metric of economic welfare – poverty is almost universally defined in these terms. In low- and middle-income countries these measures of household resource availability are typically assessed through household surveys. Yet the global diversity in survey approaches is vast, with little rigorous evidence concerning which particular approach yields the most accurate resource estimate. (Indeed there may be no one approach that best suits every context – more on this below.)
With this question in mind, Kathleen Beegle, Joa [...]
- Liquidity Runs
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-04-25 12:32:25 UTC
"We do not want to face Bear."
Email from a Goldman employee to a hedge fund manager,
March 11, 2008 ( Financial Crisis Inquiry Report , p. 288) Despite mixed evidence , concerns about a decline of bond market liquidity persist. The typical worry is that a sudden decline in bond demand will cause prices to plunge and have serious knock-on effects. Naturally, the issue merits attention: episodes in which market liquidity disappears rapidly can be disruptive (witness the flash crashes and flash rallies in various equity and bond markets in recent years). However, these incidents tend to be fle [...]
- Public Employee Pensions and Pay
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-04-24 15:01:00 UTC
Last month, Rhiannon Jerch, Shan Li and I released a NBER Working Paper studying the cost of moving a public sector bus one mile and how this varies across cities and over time. We argue that this standardized government service measure offers a useful "measuring rod" for comparing government efficiency in providing basic services. Here is the abstract for our paper; "Local governments spend roughly $1.6 trillion per year to provide a variety of public services ranging from police and fire protection to public schools and public transit. However, we know little about public sector’s product [...]
- Why not full employment?
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-04-23 12:03:57 UTC
In a thought-provoking piece, Jeremy Gilbert writes :
Hardly anyone looks back to the epoch of full employment as one which seems remotely culturally attractive. We might entertain time-travel fantasies of visiting Harlem in the 20s, Haight-Ashbury in 1967, or Paris at various points in the 19th or 20th centuries – but who wishes they could spend a week in Surbiton, 1955?
This is also the question asked in a recent paper by Jon Wisman and Michael Cauvel: why do workers not demand guaranteed employment?
Three facts give the question force. One is that technocrats now know, more than they did [...]
- La questione tedesca: alcuni fatti stilizzati
by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics, 2016-04-23 09:18:00 UTC
Un amico che stimo, Charlie Brown, biasima spesso le menti strategiche statunitensi per aver riportato di attualità per la terza volta in un secolo e senza che se ne sentisse veramente il bisogno la questione tedesca. Lo hanno fatto (a voi è chiaro) gestendo l'Europa non solo e non tanto nell'interesse degli Stati Uniti (e questo era un loro buon diritto, essendo loro una delle due potenze vincitrici), ma soprattutto a immagine e somiglianza degli Stati Uniti, cioè imponendoci un percorso di integrazione, quello degli "Stati Uniti d'Europa", che era forse funzionale ai loro interessi militari, [...]
- PovertÃ , quando combatterla fa rima con integrazione
by Lavoce.info in Il Fatto Quotidiano, 2016-04-23 08:43:31 UTC
In Italia la povertà rimane un’emergenza che riguarda soprattutto gli stranieri. Nuovi strumenti per contrastarla possono favorire anche una maggiore integrazione? E quali sarebbero i costi e i benefici per il paese? I dati e una contrapposizione tra lavoratori italiani e immigrati da evitare.
di Gruppo Tortuga (Fonte: lavoce.info )
Povertà italiana e povertà straniera
Una notizia Ansa di pochi giorni fa riporta che l’Italia è il paese Ue con il più alto numero di persone con “gravi privazioni materiali” , una definizione di povertà legata non solo al reddito, ma anche alle condizioni di vita. [...]
- Ethnic Diversity
by Masa in Devecondata, 2016-04-22 10:49:00 UTC
See Section 5.2 of Alesina and La Ferrara (2005) for a survey of different measures of ethnic diversity. For more recent discussions in relation to civil wars, see Cederman and Girardin (2007) and Fearon, Kasara, and Laitin (2007) . For sub-national level ethnic diversity, see this post . 1. Ethnolinguistic fragmentation index First brought into economics by Mauro (1995) See Easterly and Levine (1997) , whose dataset is available here . Criticised by Alesina et al. (2003) , Fearon (2003) , and Posner (2004) . 2. Ethnic fractionalization index Proposed by Alesina et al. (2003) Found to be robus [...]
- Quando uscire dalla povertÃ fa rima con integrazione
by Tortuga in La Voce, 2016-04-22 08:04:09 UTC
In Italia la povertà rimane un’emergenza che riguarda soprattutto gli stranieri. Nuovi strumenti per contrastarla possono favorire anche una maggiore integrazione? E quali sarebbero i costi e i benefici per il paese? I dati e una contrapposizione tra lavoratori italiani e immigrati da evitare.
Povertà italiana e povertà straniera
Una notizia Ansa di pochi giorni fa riporta che l’Italia è il paese Ue con il più alto numero di persone con “ gravi privazioni materiali “, una definizione di povertà legata non solo al reddito, ma anche alle condizioni di vita. La statistica proviene da dati Euros [...]
- American Weather: Household Demand and Mother Nature's Changing "Supply"
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-04-21 21:13:00 UTC
Nature has published a new paper �that has enraged some climate activists for the wrong reasons. � Here is an example of the headlines it is generating. �Let's introduce some basic concepts from environmental and urban economics. Let's assume that a person wants to survive and wants to eat pizza and wants to live in beautiful weather. � Define the probability of survival for the next year if you live at location A = Prob(A). Let's define your pizza consumption if you live in location A = �Income at A - Rents at A. An expected utility maximizer will gain an expected utility equal to Prob(A)*U(p [...]
- Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Endogenous Establishment-Level Productivity
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-04-21 13:22:53 UTC
By Jose-Maria Da-Rocha, Marina Mendes Tavares and Diego Restuccia
The large differences in income per capita across countries are mostly accounted for by differences in total factor productivity (TFP). What explains the differences in TFP across countries? Empirical evidence points to factor misallocation across heterogeneous production units as an important factor. We study factor misallocation in a model where establishment-level productivity is endogenous. In this framework, policy distortions not only misallocate resources across a g [...]
- Lucha contra el fraude fiscal en EspaÃ±a: Â¿DÃ³nde estamos?
by J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz in Nada Es Gratis, 2016-04-21 05:07:08 UTC
de J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz y Javier Monzó-Torrecillas .
Hace pocos días, descubrimos que 2015, a pesar de crecer un 3,2%, cerro con déficit del 5.1% del PIB, desviándose significativamente respecto al objetivo acordado con Bruselas. A continuación, la prensa se inundo con los papeles de Panama, que revelan el nombre de numerosos empresarios, políticos y deportistas (algunos reincidentes) que cuentan con sociedades offshore en paraísos fiscales. Para todos nosotros es difícil asimilar la necesidad de nuevos recortes para cerrar el déficit, a la vez que vemos como ciertos contribuyentes con recurs [...]
- The Macrogenoeconomics of Comparative Development
by Jason Collins in Evolving Economics, 2016-04-20 09:00:16 UTC
Oded Galor has pointed me to his forthcoming article with Quamrul Ashraf in The Journal of Economic Literature .
The Macrogenoeconomics of Comparative Development
A vibrant literature has emerged in recent years to explore the influences of human evolution and the genetic composition of populations on the comparative economic performance of societies, highlighting the roles played by the Neolithic Revolution and the prehistoric “out of Africa” migration of anatomically modern humans in generating worldwide variations in the composition of genetic traits across populations. The recent attempt b [...]
- The Map is the Message: Regional Feds versus Euro-area NCBs
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-04-18 12:15:44 UTC
Some time ago, we wrote about how the Fed and the ECB’s governance and communication were converging. Our focus was on the policy, governance and communications framework, including the 2% inflation objective, the voting rotation, post-meeting press conference, prompt publication of meeting minutes, and the like. But important differences are built into the legal design of these two systems. Perhaps the most important one is the contrasting roles of the regional Federal Reserve Banks and that of the National Central Banks (NCBs). Reflecting their cross-state design, the Reserve Banks routinely [...]
- Â«Â The IslandÂ Â» sur M6 : les candidats dÃ©couvrent lâÃ©conomie pratique
by Guillaume Nicoulaud in Contrepoints, 2016-04-17 03:15:43 UTC
Cet article « The Island » sur M6 : les candidats découvrent l’économie pratique de Guillaume Nicoulaud est apparu en premier sur Contrepoints .
Par Guillaume Nicoulaud.
Robinson Crusoe by laurent ( CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 )
Vous avez peut-être déjà suivi un ou plusieurs épisodes de The Island sur M6. Si ce n’est pas le cas, on peut décrire cette émission comme une sorte de Koh-Lanta sans Denis Brogniart, ses jeux, ses sacs de riz et ses réserves d’eau potable. The Island , à quelques détails près 1 , c’est l’état de nature : une quinzaine d’homo sapiens qui se retrouvent parachutés sur une île perdue [...]
- The Time Effect in the Growth Rates Approach
by firstname.lastname@example.org (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2016-04-16 00:46:00 UTC
After a very long process our original paper on the growth rates approach was rejected by JEEM about a month ago. I think the referees struggled to see what it added to more conventional approaches. A new referee in the 2nd round hadn't even read the important Vollebergh et al. paper, so it's not surprising they missed how we were trying to build on that paper. That, discussion with my coauthor, Paul Burke, and preparing a guest lecture for CRWF8000 on the environmental Kuznets curve, got me thinking about a clearer way to present what we are trying to do. It really is true that teaching can i [...]
- Neo-Fisherian Denial
by Stephen Williamson in Stephen Williamson: New Monetarist Economics, 2016-04-14 19:41:00 UTC
Accepting neo-Fisherism is a 12-stage program. The first stage is admitting you have a problem. The twelfth stage is helping others to admit that they have a problem too. Going from stage one to stage twelve may be a tough battle - many could temporarily fall off the wagon. But take it one day at a time. Most people, for example Larry Summers, are still at stage one. In this video, about two minutes in, after the jokes, Summers says that neo-Fisherism is most likely to be remembered as a confusion. So, if the problem is only confusion, I would like to help him out. Neo-Fisherism says, basicall [...]
- Warum der niedrige Ãlpreis die Wirtschaft nicht stimuliert
by Acemaxx-Analytics in Acemaxx-Analytics, 2016-04-14 09:14:00 UTC
Der Ölpreis hat sich seit Jahresbeginn deutlich erholt. Nach jüngsten Spekulationen , wonach Russland sich mit Saudi-Arabien auf eine Senkung der Ölproduktion geeinigt hätte, kam es in den vergangenen Tagen zu einem wesentlichen Preisauftrieb. Die Inflationserwartungen sind aber nicht gestiegen, wie in der folgenden Abbildung zu sehen ist. Billiges Öl hätte eigentlich das Wirtschaftswachstum fördern sollen. Das ist aber nicht passiert. Warum? Wegen der Null-Untergrenze ( zero lower bound ), sagt Maury Obstfeld , der neue IWF-Chefökonom . Der Rückgang des Ölpreises führt zu einem Rückgang der I [...]
- Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-04-13 18:54:54 UTC
By Carlos Viana de Carvalho, Andrea Ferrero, and Fernanda Necchio
The demographic transition can affect the equilibrium real interest rate through three channels. An increase in longevity – or expectations thereof – puts downward pressure on the real interest rate, as agents build up their savings in anticipation of a longer retirement period. A reduction in the population growth rate has two counteracting effects. On the one hand, capital per-worker rises, thus inducing lower real interest rates through a reduction in the marginal product of [...]
- Sarah Sloat: What is Cognitive Economics? Understanding the World Through New Types of Data
by ? in Confessions of a Supply-Side Liberal, 2016-04-13 00:30:12 UTC
Link to “What is Cognitive Economics? Understanding the World Through New Types of Data” on inverse.com. I had an interesting discussion with Sarah Sloat a week or two ago about Cognitive Economics, reflected in the article “What is Cognitive Economics? Understanding the World Through New Types of Data” on inverse.com . This is quite an interesting article, but several things became garbled. Let me try to clarify and emphasize a few things: A. Explaining Nonstandard Behavior In the passage beginning Historically, the first thing that a behavioral economist did was try to document the things [...]
- Here's why low oil prices aren't helping the economy
by email@example.com (James Hamilton) in Business Insider, 2016-04-12 19:20:00 UTC
Many analysts had anticipated that a dramatic drop in oil prices such as we’ve seen since the summer of 2014 could provide a big stimulus to the economy of a net oil importer like the United States. That doesn’t seem to be what we’ve observed in the data.
There is no question that lower oil prices have been a big windfall for consumers. Americans today are spending $180 billion less each year on energy goods and services than we were in July of 2014, which corresponds to about 1 percent of GDP. A year and a half ago, energy expenses constituted 5.4 percent of total consumer spending. Today tha [...]
- Shuffling employment from one area to another? Why the Local Enterprise Growth Initiative didnât work
by Administrator in British Politics and Policy at LSE, 2016-04-12 11:00:55 UTC
Businesses operating in poorer areas often receive direct, or indirect, support from government. Such support, it is hoped, will encourage entrepreneurship, increase employment and may, even, ‘turn around’ struggling areas. This support to business is often part of a wider package of measures as governments target large amounts of money at areas experiencing high unemployment and poor economic performance. Here, Elias Einiö and Henry Overman argue here that a major issue with the Local Growth Initiative in the UK was that any local job creation was offset by job losses in adjacent areas.
- Verso un mercato comune dei capitali*
by Diego Valiante in La Voce, 2016-04-12 10:56:38 UTC
La convergenza dei prezzi delle attività finanziarie senza condivisione del rischio non è vera integrazione finanziaria. E nell’Eurozona la dispersione del rischio tramite i mercati dei capitali è scarsa. L’incapacità di assorbire shock permanenti del Pil dovuti a una grave crisi finanziaria.
Integrazione finanziaria 2.0
L’integrazione finanziaria è un processo tramite cui diverse regioni o nazioni diventano connesse finanziariamente. Richiede la libera circolazione dei capitali e dei servizi finanziari e determina un incremento dei flussi di capitale tra le regioni interessate, con una gradu [...]
- Former IMF Chief Economist Admits Japan's "Endgame" Scenario Is Now In Play
by Tyler Durden in Zero Hedge, 2016-04-11 23:16:57 UTC
Back in October 2014 , just after the BOJ drastically expanded its QE operation, we warned that the biggest risk facing the BOJ (and the ECB, and the Fed, and all other central banks actively soaking up securities from the open market) was a lack of monetizable supply. We cited Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors in Tokyo, who said that at the scale of its current debt monetization, the BOJ could end up owning half of the JGB market by as early as in 2018. He added that " The BOJ is basically declaring that Japan will need to fix its long-term problems by 2018, or risk becomi [...]
- âMetrics Monday: Robustness Check or Data Mining?
by Marc F. Bellemare in Marc F. Bellemare, 2016-04-11 10:00:22 UTC
“There be three asterisks.” (Source: Wikimedia Commons).
Last month, Ben Chapman and Don Schaffner, who host the Food Safety Talk podcast, discussed my Gray Matter column in the New York Times in January, in which I discussed my work on farmers markets and food-borne illness.
Their discussion was even-handed, and Don (I think it was him; I listened to the segment only once, over a month ago) demonstrated a surprising understanding of the working paper culture in economics, wherein we circulate working papers well ahead of submitting for publication so as to make our work better in view o [...]