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- Tiebout Revisited: What Happens if the Federal EPA is Gutted?
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-12-09 15:01:00 UTC
The N Y Times isn't optimistic about the path that the EPA will take under the leadership of Scott Pruitt. � His policy shifts (relative to President Obama's team) will allow future environmental economists �to study whether "national policy maters" in causing environmental quality progress. �In this old JEEM paper, Michael Greenstone argued that the EPA wasn't the main cause of the major cause of the air pollution (as measured by sulfur dioxide) progress observed over a 30 year period. � In my Rust Belt work, I have argued that the phase out of old power plants and steel plants and heavy manu [...]
- Mismeasurement of Distance Effects: The Role of Internal Location of Production
by Hakan Yilmazkuday in Hakan Yilmazkuday's Blog, 2016-12-08 15:27:00 UTC
Mismeasurement of DistanceEffects: The Role of Internal Location of Production � One sentence summary : The overestimation of distance effects in gravity studies is an aggregation problem due to ignoring the internal location of production, which can be fixed by a corrective distance index based on the dispersion of economic activity within the exporter country and its remoteness from the rest of the world. The corresponding paper by Hakan Yilmazkuday has been published at Review of International Economics . The working paper version is available here. [...]
- Quantitative Impact of Reducing Barriers to Skilled Labor Immigration: The Case of the US H-1B Visa
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-12-07 14:37:54 UTC
By Hyun Lee
In this paper, I develop a novel two-country general equilibrium model of immigration and return migration with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents. I use the model to quantify the short-run and the long-run macroeconomic impacts of permanently doubling the US H-1B visa quota. In the short-run, I find huge endogenous increase in visa application by less talented skilled foreigners, which increases the probability of obtaining the H-1B visa by only 11 percentage points. In the long-run, US experiences a modest gain in out [...]
- Better capitalized banks lend more and lend better
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-12-05 13:49:01 UTC
Many people seem to think that when authorities increase capital requirements, banks lend less. The advocates of this view go on to argue that, since credit is essential for economic growth, we should not impose overly tough constraints on banks. Put another way, a number of people believe that we have gone too far in making the financial system safe and the cost is lower growth and employment. Treasury Secretary-designate Steven Mnuchin appears to share the view that financial regulation has restrained the supply of credit: in a recent interview , he is quoted as saying “The number one proble [...]
- A Comment on Prof. Krugman's New "Trade Paper"
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-12-04 16:33:00 UTC
Dr. Krugman posted a short note� �arguing that China is not responsible for the decline of U.S manufacturing. �With one graph, he shows that a simple negative linear trend does a great job of explaining the share of people working in manufacturing from 1950 to 2010 and that this share has been roughly constant over the last 6 years. In absolute terms, �5 million fewer people now work in manufacturing relative to back in the 1970s. Dr. K wants to approach the "manufacturing's dynamics question" from the perspective of macroeconomics but this is a mistake. �Wisconsin, Michigan, PA , Ohio voters [...]
- High-skilled migrants matter â and weâre not winning
by Johan Fourie in Johan Fourie's Blog, 2016-12-03 04:38:47 UTC
One of the baffling things in explaining the Industrial Revolution is that education, that pillar most economists believe to be critical for economic growth, seems to have played a relatively minor role. Universal public education was a consequence rather than a cause of the Industrial Revolution. Eighteenth-century England did not first have a skilled population before they had an economic transformation; the uncomfortable truth is that it was the other way round.
This uncomfortable truth does not suggest that formal education was completely unimportant. It suggests, instead, that much of wh [...]
- QED69: Tu l'as voulu FranÃ§ois Dandin...
by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics, 2016-12-02 07:29:00 UTC
Tanti tanti anni or sono, avevo una regazzetta del Villaggio Olimpico. Lei non era rustica, ma le sue amiche abbastanza. Ricordo un giorno una di loro chiedere a un'altra: "Che profumo hai messo?" Et l'autre de repondre: " Anè Anè ". Ignorava, la rustichella, che sulle "i" va sempre messo un puntino, anche (e soprattutto) quando le "i" sono tante ( una cosa tipo 888 . A proposito, com'era quella cosa dell'euro che ci difende dai fire sales ?), ma qualche volta ne vanno messi due, e la scelta non è casuale. So che non ci crederete, ma non corressi la rustichella. Detesto l'abuso di posizione do [...]
- Some Airplane Energy Demand Economics
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-12-01 16:55:00 UTC
Before I talk about airplanes, I want to thank USC's media team for writing this very nice article about the� The USC Economics Review �(our new undergraduate economics journal). �Two weeks ago, J erry Nickelsberg a nd I released a new NBER Working Paper �titled " An Economic Analysis of U.S Airline Fuel Economy Dynamics from 1991 to 2015" Airline transport generates a growing share of global greenhouse gas emissions but as of late 2016, this sector has not faced U.S. fuel economy or emissions regulation. At any point in time, airlines own and lease a set of durable vehicles and have invested [...]
- Can mobile money increase investment by businesses?
by Asif Islam in Let's Talk Development, 2016-12-01 15:45:00 UTC
Investment is one of the pillars of private sector development. The acquisition of assets enables firms to increase their capacity and improve their efficiency, unlocking avenues of growth. Promoting firms’ growth is especially critical in Sub-Saharan African countries that have predominantly low levels of economic development and high rates of poverty. Against this backdrop, there has been a rapid increase in mobile money use - that is the use of mobile phones for financial transfers. At the end of 2015, mobile money services were available in 93 countries -with a total of over 411 million r [...]
- Elites or people?
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-12-01 13:13:41 UTC
The votes for Trump and Brexit have highlighted a division between “elites” and the “people”. For me, though, this is the wrong dichotomy. The question instead is: under what conditions are the people right, and under what conditions are elites right?
Both can sometimes go wrong. Experts are prone not just to professional deformation (pdf) – the tendency for perceptions to be warped by their training – but also groupthink. For example, the replication crisis – which is by no means confined to psychology – suggests that peer review fails to weed out poor academic research and might even enhance [...]
- Si pagamos a los estudiantes por sus notas Â¿quiÃ©n mejora?
by admin in Nada Es Gratis, 2016-11-30 06:00:24 UTC
de Cristina Bellés
Tener estudios universitarios es beneficioso tanto desde un punto de vista económico (mayor salario futuro) como social (mejor salud y mayor participación cívica, por ejemplo). Entonces, ¿por qué hay un gran porcentaje de estudiantes que abandona o tarda mucho más tiempo del establecido en terminar los estudios? En España, por ejemplo, el 22.5% de los estudiantes universitarios de primer año abandonan los estudios y casi la mitad de los estudiantes necesitan dos o más años adicionales para terminar la carrera . Estos números son igual de preocupantes en otros países. Un 45% [...]
- Gender, Marriage, and Life Expectancy
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-11-29 21:33:18 UTC
By Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi and Fang Yang
Wages and life expectancy, as well as labor market outcomes, savings, and consumption, differ by gender and marital status. In this paper we compare the aggregate implications of two dynamic structural models. The first model is a standard, quantitative, life-cycle economy, in which people are only heterogenous by age and realized earnings shocks, and is calibrated using data on men, as typically done. The second model is one in which people are also heterogeneous by gender, marital [...]
- Financial Regulation in a Quantitative Model of the Modern Banking System
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-11-29 21:33:00 UTC
By Tim Landvoigt and Juliane Begenau
This paper builds a quantitative general equilibrium model with commercial banks and shadow banks to study the unintended consequences of capital requirements. In particular, we investigate how the shadow banking system responds to capital regulation changes for traditional banks. A key feature of our model are defaultable bank liabilities that provide liquidity services to households. In case of default, commercial bank debt is fully insured and thus provides full liquidity services. In contrast, shadow ba [...]
- Ending Too Big to Fail
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-11-28 13:33:26 UTC
“We very, very much did not want to make the loan.” Ben Bernanke testimony (October 10, 2014) regarding the Federal Reserve’s emergency provision of credit to AIG in September, 2008. More than six years after the Dodd-Frank Act passed in July 2010, the controversy over how to end “too big to fail” (TBTF) remains a key focus of financial reform. Indeed, TBTF—which led to the troubling bailouts of financial behemoths in the crisis of 2007-2009—is still one of the biggest challenges in reducing the probability and severity of financial crises. By focusing on the largest, most complex, most interc [...]
- Near-term expectations for the federal funds rate
by thebusinesscycleblog in The business cycle blog, 2016-11-28 12:53:27 UTC
A note on extracting expectations for policy rates when deviations from the expectations hypothesis may be important, from Kim and Tanaka [...]
- Did Coastal Local Zoning in Progressive States Caused the Trump Win? Post #2
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-11-27 15:27:00 UTC
This post represents a sequel to this recent popular post . � �In that post, I argue that an unintended consequence of stringent local zoning in the progressive states of California, Oregon and Washington is that these states created a near vertical housing supply curve and priced out middle class people who moved to Texas instead. �This dispersal of the population cost Hilary Clinton dozens of electoral votes. �Now some data. �Go to this IRS state to state migration gross flows data . Download the 2014-2015 data and you will learn the following facts. For U.S residents who move to California; [...]
- Not understanding the right
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-11-27 13:07:30 UTC
We leftists should make more effort to understand the rise of the populist right, says Janice Tuner in the Times:
After defeat you must ask why. It is easy to blame Breitbart or the tabloids, to label every Trump voter a white supremacist, every Leaver a “Brextremist”. Easier than asking…what the hell you missed.
Here we must sharply distinguish two different meanings of “understand”: being aware of the cause of something versus being sympathetic to something. I can do the former without the latter.
For my purposes, perhaps the biggest cause of the rise of populism was pointed out back in 20 [...]
- Aggregiertes Angebot und aggregierte Nachfrage
by Ekkehart Schlicht in Funktionale Staatsfinanzen, 2016-11-27 09:05:00 UTC
Die in der Makroökonomie vorherrschende Sicht ist, dass sich das volkswirtschaftliche Produktionspotenzial unabhängig von der aggregierten Nachfrage entwickle. Die (von mir wissenschaftlich sehr geschätzte) Präsidentin der US-amerikanischen Notenbank, Janet Yellen, hat diese übliche Sicht in einem sehr interessanten Beitrag kritisiert. Sie charakterisiert kurz die übliche Sicht wie folgt Kann es sein, dass Änderungen der aggregierten Nachfrage zu deutlichen und nachhaltigen Folgewirkungen auf das aggregierte Angebot führen können? Vor der großen Krise hätten wahrscheinlich die meisten Ökonome [...]
- A Gift From Europe to the World: Globalization, Capitalist Expansionism and Professional Bicycle Road Racing
by stefanotijerina in NEP-HIS blog, 2016-11-23 20:49:44 UTC
The History of Professional Road Cycling
by Jean-François Mignot
Why did cycling become professional as early as the late nineteenth century, while other sports (such as rugby) and other sport events (such as the Olympic Games) remained amateur until the 1980s? Why are the organizers of the most important bicycle races private companies, while in other sports such as soccer the main event organizer is a nonprofit organization? To what extent have bicycle races changed since the late nineteenth century? And how does cycling reflect long-term economic changes? The history of profession [...]
- Austeri e no
by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics, 2016-11-23 16:04:00 UTC
Sto lavorando con un nostro amico (Claudio Borghi) per impostare un indicatore sintetico di incentivo all'uscita dall'Unione. Qualcosa di simile a un altro lavoro che conoscete bene , ma fatto con un po' più di criterio. Mi ha fatto notare un altro amico (Sergio Cesaratto) che in Germania stanno sclerando . Ora, fra le varie storielle che ci raccontano, una che ( come sappiamo ) non è tanto supportata dalle esperienze storiche è quella che in caso di uscita i "mercati" ci punirebbero, condannandoci all'autarchia finanziaria. Il paper segnalato da Sergio indica che la Germania sta in effetti pr [...]
- Three decades of publishing research in population economics
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-11-23 15:37:17 UTC
By: Brown, Alessio J.G. (UNU‐MERIT) ; Zimmermann, Klaus F. (UNU-MERIT, and Harvard University)
The Journal of Population Economics is celebrating its thirtieth birthday. When the first issue was published, population economics was non-existent as a field. Hence, the aim has been to provide a high quality outlet to publishing excellent theoretical and applied research in all areas of population economics. The article summarises key developments in the Journal’s editorial process, thematic orientation, international reach and successes. Furthermore, we discuss the benefits of working papers in e [...]
- Taxation of Temporary Jobs: Good Intentions with Bad Outcomes?
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-11-23 15:35:51 UTC
By: Cahuc, Pierre (Ecole Polytechnique, Paris) ; Charlot, Olivier (University of Cergy-Pontoise) ; Malherbet, Franck (CREST (ENSAE)) ; Benghalem, Helène (CREST) ; Limon, Emeline (University of Cergy-Pontoise)
This paper analyzes the consequences of the taxation of temporary jobs recently introduced in several European countries to induce firms to create more open-ended contracts and to increase the duration of jobs. The estimation of a job search and matching model on French data shows that the taxation of temporary jobs does not reach its objectives: it reduces the mean duration of jobs and d [...]
- What Grades and Achievement Tests Measure
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-11-23 15:34:20 UTC
By: Borghans, Lex (Maastricht University) ; Golsteyn, Bart H.H. (Maastricht University) ; Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago) ; Humphries, John Eric (University of Chicago)
Intelligence quotient (IQ), grades, and scores on achievement tests are widely used as measures of cognition, yet the correlations among them are far from perfect. This paper uses a variety of data sets to show that personality and IQ predict grades and scores on achievement tests. Personality is relatively more important in predicting grades than scores on achievement tests. IQ is relatively more important in predict [...]
- El impacto del sistema tributario y del gasto social sobre la desigualdad y la pobreza en Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, MÃ©xico, PerÃº y Uruguay: Un panorama general
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-11-23 15:31:39 UTC
By: Nora Lustig (Stone Center for Latin American Studies, Department of Economics, Tulane University.) ; Florencia Amábile ; Marisa Bucheli ; George Gray Molina ; Sean Higgins ; Miguel Jaramillo ; Wilson Jiménez Pozo ; Veronica Paz Arauco ; Claudiney Pereira ; Carola Pessino ; Máximo Rossi ; John Scott ; Ernesto Yáñez Aguilar
¿Cuánta redistribución y reducción de pobreza puede lograrse a través del gasto social, subsidios e impuestos en América Latina? Los análisis estándar de incidencia fiscal aplicados en Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, México, Perú y Uruguay, con base en una metodología que per [...]
- El Impacto del Sistema Tributario y el Gasto Social en la DistribuciÃ³n del Ingreso y la Pobreza en AmÃ©rica Latina: Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, MÃ©xico, PerÃº y Uruguay
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-11-23 15:30:22 UTC
By: Nora Lustig (Stone Center for Latin American Studies, Department of Economics, Tulane University. Commitment to Equity Institute (CEQI).)
Using standard fiscal incidence analysis, this paper estimates the impact of fiscal policy on inequality and poverty in thirteen countries in Latin America around 2010.Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and Uruguay are the countries which redistribute the most and El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras redistribute the least. Contributory pensions are significantly equalizing in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay and also in Chile, Costa Rica and Ecuador but, [...]
- CompÃ©titivitÃ© des pays
by Antoine Belgodere in Optimum, 2016-11-23 10:30:00 UTC
J'ai longtemps pensé que les différentes attitudes possibles vis-à-vis de la
notion de "compétitivité" appliquée à des pays pris dans leur ensemble
pouvaient être partitionnées en trois catégories :
- La première regroupe ceux qui pensent que l'on doit, dans un contexte
mondialisé, tout mettre en œuvre pour remporter la grande bataille économique :
baisser les salaires pour gagner des parts de marché à l'exportation, baisser
les impôts pour attirer les investisseurs...
- La deuxième est celle de ceux qui déplorent cette compétition effrénée et
qui pensent que l'on serait mieux inspiré de [...]
- Bilateral versus Multilateral Free Trade Agreements: A Welfare Analysis
by Hakan Yilmazkuday in Hakan Yilmazkuday's Blog, 2016-11-23 01:32:00 UTC
- Inequality and Aggregate Demand
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-11-22 19:42:48 UTC
By Matthew Rognlie and Adrien Auclert
We explore the quantitative effects of transitory and persistent increases in income inequality on equilibrium interest rates and output. Our starting point is a Bewley-Huggett-Aiyagari model featuring rich heterogeneity and earnings dynamics as well as downward nominal wage rigidities. A temporary rise in inequality, if not accommodated by monetary policy, has an immediate effect on output that can be quantified using the empirical covariance between income and marginal propensities to consume. A permanen [...]
- Are Agricultural Traders Colluding? Experimental Evidence on Competition in Kenyan Maize Markets: Guest Post by Lauren Falcao Bergquist
by Development Impact Guest Blogger in Development Impact, 2016-11-22 15:17:00 UTC
This is the second in our series of posts by Ph.D. students on the job market this year
Setting food-price policy is hard. Smallholder farmers are better off with higher crop prices, but consumers want lower prices. So what is a policymaker to do?
Well-integrated agricultural markets can tackle both sides of this food-price policy dilemma, by pulling crops out of surplus areas (to boost prices received by farmers) and pushing food into deficit areas (to reduce prices faced by consumers).
But, alas, agricultural markets in sub-Saharan Africa are not well-integrated. Wide variation in price [...]
- High versus Low Inflation: Implications for Price-Level Convergence
by Hakan Yilmazkuday in Hakan Yilmazkuday's Blog, 2016-11-22 14:58:00 UTC
High versus Low Inflation:Implications for Price-Level Convergence [...]
- Why not worker-directors?
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-11-21 13:56:20 UTC
I’m disappointed but not surprised that Theresa May has backtracked on the promise to put workers onto company boards. But let’s be clear why I’m disappointed.
A single worker-director would not greatly empower workers – although of course it might be a stepping stone towards a greater voice. Sam might be right to say that giving workers shares might be a better alternative.
Instead, I favour worker-directors not so much because I'm a socialist but because I'm a libertarian. I support them for the same reason that I support free markets (in some contexts) and free speech. It’s because I believ [...]
- Policy rules
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-11-21 13:42:51 UTC
Monetary economists like rules. Traditionally, they worry that policymakers will sacrifice the long-term benefits of price stability for the more immediate gratification of higher growth. Realizing how hard it is to resist temptation, politicians have delegated monetary policy to a central bank that is independent, but subject to a mandate that constrains their discretion. This institutional setup helped lower inflation in the advanced economies from a median exceeding 10 percent in the late 1970s and early 1980s to about 2 percent by the late 1990s. But, convinced that overly accommodative fi [...]
- Trump may go after the Federal Reserve
by ? in Business Insider, 2016-11-16 21:42:00 UTC
Throughout the Presidential campaign Donald Trump repeatedly criticized the United States Federal Reserve, accusing it of creating a “big fat ugly bubble” through its monetary decisions, among many other things. Trump’s consistent attacks have created worries for the Fed’s independence.
These worries intensified after the election, as President Trump will be in a position to make big changes at the Federal Reserve over the next few years. There are two existing vacancies on the seven-member board of governors of the Fed, and the terms of both the current Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, and Vice [...]
- Pass-through of Trade Costs to U.S. Import Prices
by Hakan Yilmazkuday in Hakan Yilmazkuday's Blog, 2016-11-16 18:18:00 UTC
Pass-through of Trade Costs to U.S. Import Prices One sentence summary : Robust to the consideration of constant versus variable markups, the effects of measured trade costs on U.S. import prices are through source-specific marginal costs of production, with the contribution of quality dominating those of productivity and markups. The corresponding paper by Hakan Yilmazkuday has been published at Review of World Economics . The working paper version is available here. Abstract This paper measures the pass-through of trade costs into U.S. import prices by using actual data on duties/tariffs an [...]
- Confidence Cycles and Liquidity Hoarding
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-11-16 15:00:22 UTC
By Volha Audzei
Market confidence has proved to be an important factor during past crises. However, many existing general equilibrium models do not account for agents’ expectations, market volatility, or overly pessimistic investor forecasts. In this paper, we incorporate a model of the interbank market into a DSGE model, with the interbank market rate and the volume of lending depending on market confidence and the perception of counterparty risk. In our model, a credit crunch occurs if the perception of counterparty risk increases. Our re [...]
- Mergers May Be Profitable, but Are They Good for the Economy?
by Bruce A. Blonigen in HBR Blog Network, 2016-11-15 14:00:33 UTC
The last couple of years have seen record levels of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity but also increasing concern about industry concentration and its negative effects. And while much has been written to speculate about whether mergers improve or harm economic welfare, there is little empirical evidence supporting either side of the argument. In recent research, we provide new evidence that while mergers may raise profits, many fail to deliver efficiency gains that could increase overall prosperity.
Firms engage in mergers because they see a profitable opportunity. If profits rise due to [...]
- Early Childcare, Child Cognitive Outcomes and Inequalities in the UK
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-11-14 16:46:48 UTC
Del Boca, Daniela (University of Turin) ; Piazzalunga, Daniela (IRVAPP) ; Pronzato, Chiara D. (University of Turin)
The objective of this research is to explore the impact of early childcare on child cognitive outcomes. We utilize the Millennium Cohort Survey (MCS) for the United Kingdom, which provides very detailed information about several modalities of childcare as well as several child outcomes. In our empirical analysis, we estimate the association between formal childcare and child cognitive outcomes, allowing the effect of formal childcare to be different for children fro [...]
- Earnings and Consumption Dynamics: A Nonlinear Panel Data Framework
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-11-14 16:46:06 UTC
Manuel Arellano (Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) ; Richard Blundell (University College London) ; Stéphane Bonhomme (University of Chicago)
We develop a new quantile-based panel data framework to study the nature of income persistence and the transmission of income shocks to consumption. Log-earnings are the sum of a general Markovian persistent component and a transitory innovation. The persistence of past shocks to earnings is allowed to vary according to the size and sign of the current shock. Consumption is modeled as an age-dependent nonlinear function of asset [...]
- Marriage and Marriage Markets
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-11-14 16:45:30 UTC
Grossbard, Shoshana (San Diego State University)
This paper reviews models of marriage, with special emphasis on how the sex ratio (the ratio of marriageable men to women) can help explain measurable outcomes such as marriage formation, intra-marriage distribution of consumption goods, savings, labor supply, leisure, type of relationship, divorce, and intermarriage. Predictions are based on Demand and Supply analyses by Becker and the author. Evidence in support of the predictions is reported, most of it based on recent literature.
marriage, marriage markets, sex rat [...]
- Health, Consumption and Inequality
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-11-14 16:44:53 UTC
Jose-Victor Rios-Rull (University of Pennsylvania) ; Josep Pijoan-Mas (CEMFI)
We use a stylized model of endogenous health choices to construct compensated variation measures of inequality between individuals in different education and wealth groups at age 50, taking into account differences in consumption, differences in health, and differences in mortality between types. In doing so, we allow for the more disadvantaged types to take actions to improve their health when given some extra income. We use a simple revealed preference argument to measure the health-improving technolo [...]
- Economic Growth Evens-Out Happiness: Evidence from Six Surveys
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-11-14 16:43:43 UTC
Andrew E. Clark (PSE – Paris School of Economics, PSE – Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques – CNRS – Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique – INRA – Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique – EHESS – École des hautes études en sciences sociales – ENS Paris – École normale supérieure – Paris – École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)) ; Sarah Flèche (Centre for Economic Performance – LSE – London School of Economics and Political Science) ; Claudia Senik (PSE – Paris School of Economics, PSE – Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques – CNRS – Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique [...]
- SWB as a Measure of Individual Well-Being
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-11-14 16:43:01 UTC
Andrew E. Clark (PSE – Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques – CNRS – Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique – INRA – Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique – EHESS – École des hautes études en sciences sociales – ENS Paris – École normale supérieure – Paris – École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC), PSE – Paris School of Economics)
There is much discussion about using subjective well-being measures as inputs into a social welfare function, which will tell us how well societies are doing. But we have (many) more than one measure of subjective well-being. I here consider examp [...]
- Fiscal Policy, Inequality and the Poor in the Developing World
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-11-14 16:42:15 UTC
Nora Lustig (Department of Economics, Tulane University)
Using comparable fiscal incidence analysis, this paper examines the impact of fiscal policy on inequality and poverty in twenty-five countries for around 2010. Success in fiscal redistribution is driven primarily by redistributive effort (share of social spending to GDP in each country) and the extent to which transfers/subsidies are targeted to the poor and direct taxes targeted to the rich. While fiscal policy always reduces inequality, this is not the case with poverty. Fiscal policy increases poverty in four countries [...]
- The Heterogeneous Effects of Government Spending: Itâs All About Taxes
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-11-14 16:26:17 UTC
By Axelle Ferrière and Gaston Navarro
Empirical work suggests that government spending generates large expansions of output and consumption. Most representative-agent models predict a moderate expansion of output, and a crowding-out of consumption. We reconcile these findings by taking into account the distribution of taxes. Using US data from 1913 to 2012, we provide evidence that government spending induces larger expansions in output and consumption when financed with more progressive taxes. We then develop a model with heterogeneous househ [...]
- Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
by Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-11-14 13:24:34 UTC
“There may be times when an adjustment in monetary policy may be appropriate to ameliorate emerging risks to financial stability.” Janet Yellen , July 2, 2014 In June 2015, a committee of Federal Reserve Bank Presidents conducted a “ macroprudential tabletop exercise ”—a kind of wargame—to determine what tools to use should risks to financial stability arise in an environment when growth and inflation are stable. The conventional wisdom—widely supported in policy pronouncements and in a range of academic studies—is that the appropriate tools are prudential (capital and liquidity requirements, [...]
- Chris Dillow â On Burkean Marxism
by email@example.com (Mike Norman) in Mike Norman Economics, 2016-11-13 16:17:00 UTC
On social, political, and economic thought. Reconciling Burke as icon of the right and Marx as icon of the left. Where Hayek and economic liberals go wrong is equating the wisdom of crowds with the invisible hand of the market rather than the evolutionary process that reveals the wisdom of the species. Markets are a manifestation of that species wisdom but not the whole of it. Free markets do not necessarily lead to free individuals in a free society in which all can unfold their potential. A big gripe Marxists have with capitalism is that it is a system of domination; in the workplace and in [...]
- On Burkean Marxism
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-11-13 12:38:09 UTC
“We are afraid to put men to live and trade each on his own private stock of reason; because we suspect that this stock in each man is small, and that the individuals would do better to avail themselves of the general bank and capital of nations and of ages.” Commenters on a recent post of mine have pointed out that my awareness of individuals’ limited cognition echoes that famous claim of Edmund Burke, and wonder how a Marxist can express such a sentiment.
The question’s a good one. Anyone who doesn’t feel the force of Burke’s point is a bumptious prat who knows nothing of history, politics o [...]
- Is globalization to blame?
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-11-11 13:43:16 UTC
Donald Trump’s victory is being seen as a backlash against globalization . For me, this poses the question: to what extent is globalization to blame for the decline in many workers’ real incomes ?
The answer, I suspect, is: not much. These papers by Ann Harrison and colleagues (pdf) and Jonathan Haskel and colleagues (pdf) show that it is very hard to link declining US real wages to increased openness to trade. Equally, its unproven (to say the least) whether increased immigration has contributed to falling wages: George Borjas’s claim that it is has has been sharply challenged (pdf).
Common s [...]
- Optimal monetary policy with heterogeneous agents
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-11-10 15:12:53 UTC
By Galo Nuño and Carlos Thomas
Incomplete markets models with heterogeneous agents are increasingly used for policy analysis. We propose a novel methodology for solving fully dynamic optimal policy problems in models of this kind, both under discretion and commitment. We illustrate our methodology by studying optimal monetary policy in an incomplete-markets model with non-contingent nominal assets and costly inflation. Under discretion, an inflationary bias arises from the central bank’s attempt to redistribute wealth towards debtor households [...]
- Does character matter?
by ? in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-11-10 13:32:00 UTC
Trump’s election victory has been regarded as a defeat for pollsters and the liberal elite. But there’s another group who should worry about it – HR managers. This is because Trump’s presidency is a big and public test of a hypothes [...]
- Town Planners Caused Trumps Election Win
by andrew lainton in Decisions, Decisions, Decisions, 2016-11-10 13:09:45 UTC
Matthew Kahn at Green Economics
I have a new explanation for Trump’s win that does not involve Weiner or talking about Deplorables or emails. California’s zoning codes caused the win. If California had Texas style housing regulations, then 80 million people would live in California and the state would have 100 electoral votes. The state would still vote Democrat (because of the composition of these new voters) and Clinton would have won. Why would so many people move here? It is heaven. With Hong Kong style density and water markets, the state could accommodate such growth.
- President-Elect Trump Will Address the Climate Change Adaptation Challenge
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-11-10 03:52:00 UTC
I understand why Joe Romm and Brad Plumer are deeply disappointed about the election. �Even if HRC had become President, the global carbon mitigation efforts would have been unlikely to have significantly bent this curve. �Stare at this time trend. Despite all sorts of "green economy" investments over the last 25 years, I se e a linear rising curve . �Do you see a dip during the Great Recession? �No, there is just a linear rise. While Trump may laugh off the climate change challenge, he is the owner of a large amount of coastal real estate in the UK, Manhattan and Florida. �A theme of my 2010 [...]
- Did California Zoning Cause the Trump Win? A Counter-Factual of My State's Electoral Count if Housing Supply is Elastic
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-11-09 17:45:00 UTC
The Trump Win means that some great economists (I'm thinking of Summers, Krueger, Goolsbee etc) will return to academic research since they won't be joining the new administration. � Given how many top academic economists were �primed to go to Washington, the Trump win should actually accelerate discover in academic economics! �Unfortunately, I don't believe that the Trump win will lead to that many econ stars joining his squad. Switching gears, I have a new explanation for Trump's win that does not involve Weiner or talking about Deplorables or emails. � California's zoning codes caused the w [...]
- Nixon moment
by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics, 2016-11-09 14:48:00 UTC
Una cosa posso dirvela: come musicisti siete migliori che come economisti. Proprio il contrario di me, mio malgrado. Lo spoglio delle schede del Keynes Award dimostra una certa maturità (perdonatemi se non riesco a pubblicarlo, ma contiene tali e tante peeeerle da necessitare un lavoro accurato). Viceversa, se ve li rileggete ora che (spero) avrete capito cosa volevo dire, molti commenti sotto a questo post sono desolanti. Di fatto solo Gasperino , in quello che, a mia memoria, è il suo unico commento sul blog, ci aveva colto in pieno, come sottolineato da robertobocco e da me, con una simpati [...]
- What about the periphery? Swedish wealth-income ratios in historical perspective
by missiaia in NEP-HIS blog, 2016-11-09 14:14:49 UTC
Wealth-Income Ratios in a Small, Developing Economy: Sweden, 1810–2014
Daniel Waldenström (Paris School of Economics and Research Institute of Industrial Economics firstname.lastname@example.org )
ABSTRACT: This study uses new data on Swedish national wealth over the last two hundred years to examine whether the patterns in wealth-income ratios found by Piketty and Zucman (2014) extend to small and less developed economies. The findings reveal both similarities and differences. During the industrialization era, Sweden’s domestic wealth was relatively low because of low saving rates and instea [...]
- What can scrapping larger currency notes do?
by paragwaknis in Musings of the Sorts, 2016-11-08 21:35:23 UTC
Today Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India made a surprise announcement to scrap Rs. 500 and 1000 notes- by Nov 8 midnight these notes will cease to be a legal tender. Indian citizens will get couple of months to exchange these notes for the denominations that are still legal tender. The government will introduce new Rs. 500 and Rs. 2000 notes later. According to media reports, the aim of this move is to reduce black money in the economy, tackle potential fake currency allegedly being circulated by Pakistan and curb corruption. The question of course is would such a move be helpful in ac [...]
- Elezioni Usa 2016, Hillary Clinton o Donald Trump? CosÃ¬ reagiranno i mercati finanziari
by Lavoce.info in Il Fatto Quotidiano, 2016-11-08 20:40:45 UTC
Cosa accadrà sui mercati finanziari dopo le presidenziali americane? Una vittoria repubblicana potrebbe comportare una forte caduta delle borse, non solo negli Stati Uniti. L’elezione della candidata democratica potrebbe portare a un aumento dei tassi d’interesse e a una riduzione della volatilità.
di Rony Hamaui (Fonte: lavoce.info)
L’incertezza pesa sui mercati
La forte incertezza sui risultati delle elezioni americane, assieme alla polarizzazione delle posizioni politiche dei candidati, agitano i mercati finanziari .
Tradizionalmente, i mercati hanno salutato la vittoria di un candidato re [...]
- Hillary o the Donald? CosÃ¬ reagiranno i mercati finanziari
by Rony Hamaui in La Voce, 2016-11-08 11:00:49 UTC
Cosa accadrà sui mercati finanziari dopo le presidenziali americane? Una vittoria repubblicana potrebbe comportare una forte caduta delle borse, non solo negli Stati Uniti. L’elezione della candidata democratica potrebbe portare a un aumento dei tassi d’interesse e a una riduzione della volatilità.
L’incertezza pesa sui mercati
La forte incertezza sui risultati delle elezioni americane, assieme alla polarizzazione delle posizioni politiche dei candidati, agitano i mercati finanziari.
Tradizionalmente, i mercati hanno salutato la vittoria di un candidato repubblicano alla presidenza degli Stat [...]
- Fino alla laurea: le misure che servono per il diritto allo studio
by Maria De Paola in La Voce, 2016-11-08 09:27:17 UTC
La legge di bilancio per il 2017 prevede alcuni provvedimenti di sostegno per gli studenti universitari che provengono da famiglie con redditi bassi. Basteranno per ridurre la diseguaglianza e aumentare il numero di laureati? Il ruolo delle università per garantire un effettivo diritto allo studio.
Borse di studio ed esonero dalle tasse
Tra gli obiettivi di Europa 2020 vi è quello di portare al 40 per cento la quota dei laureati nella fascia di età 30-34 anni. Per l’Italia si tratta di una meta ancora lontana: oggi la percentuale è di circa il 24 per cento e riguarda prevalentemente giovani pr [...]
- A Primer on Securities Lending
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-11-07 13:49:47 UTC
"Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows." Narrator’s introduction to the radio broadcast of The Shadow . Securities lending (SL) is one of the less-well-publicized shadow banking activities. Like repurchase agreements (repo) and asset-backed commercial paper, SL can be a source of very short-term wholesale funding, allowing a shadow bank to engage in the kind of liquidity, maturity and credit transformation that banks do. And, like other short-term funding sources, it can suddenly dry up, making it a source of systemic risk. When funding evaporates, fire sales and a c [...]
- November Reading
by Dave Giles in Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog, 2016-11-04 15:28:00 UTC
You'll see that this month's reading list relates, in part, to my two recent posts about Ted Anderson and David Cox. Acharya, A., M. Blackwell, & M. Sen , 2015. Explaining causal findings without bias: Detecting and assessing direct effects. RWP15-194, Harvard Kennedy School. Anderson, T.W. , 2005. Origins of the limited information maximum likelihood and two-stage least squares estimators. Journal of Econometrics , 127, 1-16. Anderson, T.W. & H. Rubin , 1949. Estimation of the parameters of a single equation in a complete system of stochastic equations. Annals of Mathematical Statistics , 2 [...]
- Virker regional udligning? Ny evidens fra Tyskland
by Christian BjÃ¸rnskov in Punditokraterne, 2016-11-04 10:01:55 UTC
Som de fleste nok ved, findes der en lang og til tider voldsom debat om, hvorvidt ulandsbistand hjælper fattige lande. Denne debat er reflekteret i en mindre voldsom akademisk debat om, hvorvidt regional udligning – overførsler til andre dele af EU eller andre dele af et land – virker efter hensigten. I Danmark er samme debat hele diskussionen af, hvad den voldsomt komplekse kommunale udligning faktisk gør.
Uformelt er argumentet ofte, at udligning tit kan forsvinde i korruption. Der er således masser af eksempler fra Sydeuropa på indlysende tåbelige projekter, der er finansieret af EU’s regi [...]
- One Health: letâs not have pandemics get in the way
by ? in Investing in Health, 2016-11-03 12:56:00 UTC
Today the world is celebrating “One Health Day.” Sometimes great ideas appear simple, even intuitive: the One Health concept was created to demonstrate that the health of people and animals are interconnected, and that these are in turn, i [...]
- Off with his head? Capital punishment and jurorsâ dilemmas in 19th and 20th century Britain
by crowleymarkj in NEP-HIS blog, 2016-11-03 12:08:42 UTC
The Fall of Capital Punishment and the Rise of Prisons: How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts
By Anna Bindler (University of Gothenburg) and Randi Hjalmarsson (University of Gothenburg and CEPR)
Abstract: This paper studies the effect of punishment severity on jury decision-making using a large archival data set from the Old Bailey Criminal Court in London from 1715 to 1900. We take advantage of three natural experiments in English history, which result in sharp decreases in punishment severity: The offense specific abolition of capital punishment in the 1800s, the temporary halt of pe [...]
- Rising Public Transit Quality in Big U.S Cities
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-11-02 16:43:00 UTC
I take public transit to USC each day. �I have also written several papers about public transit. �Two of the best known are available here and here. � �In Los Angeles,there is wide news coverage that the city is expanding the transport network. I do think that t he Expo Line which runs East-West is great. I'd like to discuss some innovations that have raised the quality of public transit. � First, having cameras on board on the trains reduces crime and public craziness. �Second, the introduction of the "tap card" means that people are no longer loading pennies into bus fair boxes slowing every [...]
- Socially influenced preferences
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-11-02 12:53:20 UTC
This morning, Jo Michell tweeted :
Preferences are mostly socially determined. i.e. the opposite of what the textbooks say.
In a general sense this is trivially true. No middle-aged Victorian gentleman wanted a Martin guitar or Brennan B2 as one of their 21 st century counterparts does.
However, we have lots of finer-grained evidence on this point.
Some of it comes from investment decisions. Common sense, and standard financial advice, says that these should depend upon individuals’ taste for risk. But there’s more to it than this.
Some experiments by Matteo Ploner and colleagues established [...]
- Hur pÃ¥verkar pensionerna hushÃ¥llens fÃ¶rmÃ¶genhetsfÃ¶rdelning?
by Daniel WaldenstrÃ¶m in Ekonomistas, 2016-11-02 05:08:38 UTC
Vem äger egentligen kapitalet i det moderna välfärdssamhället? Ett antal fördelningsstudier visar att ägandet av hus och finansiella tillgångar (dvs aktier och fonder) är skevt fördelat. Men denna bild har ifrågasatts, inte minst av Harvardprofessorn Martin Feldstein, för att vara alltför snäv. Feldstein menar att bl a Thomas Pikettys analyser av förmögenhetsfördelningen missar den kanske viktigaste tillgången för många hushåll: värdet av framtida pensioner. I denna text tittar jag närmare på Feldsteins kritik. Jag presenterar nya beräkningar av förmögenhetsfördelningen för USA och Sverige och [...]
- On the counting heuristic
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-11-01 13:27:45 UTC
Simon asks for a sense of proportion about the allegations of Hillary Clinton’s misuse of emails:
The media obsesses over whether Clinton might have sent an email containing confidential information from her personal account while secretary of state, and also wonders about whether Trump tells lies, pays any taxes, bribes officials and assaults women. Anyone who reads these stories can see that there is no equivalence here. But anyone who just reads the headlines would be tempted to think otherwise.
There might be a more widespread cognitive bias at work here. We can call it the counting heur [...]
- Why Arenât Environmentalists Supporting a Carbon Tax in Washington State?
by ? in , 2016-10-31 13:46:00 UTC
I used to live in Washington state. I’m no longer registered to vote there, but if I were, I would vote “Yes” on Nov. 8 for the Washington Carbon Emission Tax and Sales Tax Reduction, also known as Initiative 732, … Continue readin [...]
- Bank of Japan at the Policy Frontier
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-10-31 12:38:58 UTC
Since Governor Haruhiko Kuroda took office in March 2013, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been the most aggressively expansionary advanced-economy central bank. Its announcement last month of a “new framework for strengthening monetary easing”—coming only six months after introducing negative policy rates—distances it even further from the pack. That a central bank is willing to assess its performance transparently and to consider new approaches to achieving its key goals is something we have come to expect. While it’s much too early to tell whether the latest BoJ innovations will be more successf [...]
- Why Arenât Environmentalists Supporting a Carbon Tax in Washington State?
by ? in The Energy Collective - The world's best thinkers on energy & climate, 2016-10-31 10:00:00 UTC
I used to live in Washington state. I’m no longer registered to vote there, but if I were, I would vote “Yes” on Nov. 8 for the Washington Carbon Emission Tax and Sales Tax Reduction, also known as Initiative 732, or I-732.
I-732 would ma [...]
- Bibliography on Post Keynesian Economics (Updated)
by LK in Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Post Keynesian Perspective, 2016-10-29 10:08:00 UTC
The updated bibliography below provides a list of the most important books and articles on various topics within Post Keynesian economics. It is divided into the following sections (and there are now links to each section): (1) Introductory Studies (2) Advanced Overviews and Specialised Studies (3) History of Post Keynesian Economics (4) Methodology (5) Uncertainty (6) Endogenous Money (7) Fiscal Policy (8) Inflation (9) Price Theory (10) Trade Theory (11) Against Wicksellian Loanable Funds Theory (12) Kaldor’s Growth Laws and Verdoorn’s Law (13) Thirlwall’s Law (14) Cambridge Capital Controve [...]
- Links and quotes for Oct. 27, 2016: Chinese incomes rising with pollution, robotic warfare, and more
by Sarah Gustafson in AEIdeas, 2016-10-27 17:25:48 UTC
As Chinese Incomes Rise, So Does Pollution – The New Republic
China’s leaders still care about economic growth, but now they recognize the importance of attracting and retaining talented people, and are worried about an international brain drain as skilled workers move to Canada and the United States. As part of that strategy, national and provincial leaders are starting to evaluate local officials’ efforts to curb pollution and promote energy efficiency.
One mayor in a small, affluent city in the Yangtze River Delta told Siqi, “I do not want my citizens to complain about the pollution in my c [...]