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- Links and quotes for Oct. 27, 2016: Chinese incomes rising with pollution, robotic warfare, and more
by Sarah Gustafson in AEIdeas, 2016-10-27 17:25:48 UTC
As Chinese Incomes Rise, So Does Pollution – The New Republic
China’s leaders still care about economic growth, but now they recognize the importance of attracting and retaining talented people, and are worried about an international brain drain as skilled workers move to Canada and the United States. As part of that strategy, national and provincial leaders are starting to evaluate local officials’ efforts to curb pollution and promote energy efficiency.
One mayor in a small, affluent city in the Yangtze River Delta told Siqi, “I do not want my citizens to complain about the pollution in my c [...]
- "Even top economists publish in predatory journals, study finds" #RePEc
by John Whitehead in Environmental Economics, 2016-10-27 14:52:09 UTC
Top-ranking economists sometimes publish papers in open access journals deemed potentially “predatory,” according to a new analysis.
The findings contradict previous results that show that researchers who publish papers in “potential, possible, or probable” predatory journals (as defined by librarian Jeffrey Beall ) are largely inexperienced.
According to the study, 27 of the most eminent economists (within the top 5% of their field) have published nearly 5% of their papers in predatory journals. These researchers published 31 papers in predatory journals in 2015 alone.
- Whose racism?
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-10-26 11:56:39 UTC
Phil McDuff complains about the portrayal of the white working class as a “howling mass” whose “concerns” about immigration must be heeded.
This poses a question: why do we hear so much about the racism of the white working class and so little about the racism of the ruling class?
Take the following facts:
- People from ethnic minorities are twice as likely to live in poverty as white people.
- The median net wealth of white British households is almost three times (pdf) that of black Caribbean ones.
- “Ethnic minorities are still hugely underrepresented in positions of power” says David Is [...]
- The Ocean in Climate Econometrics
by firstname.lastname@example.org (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2016-10-26 09:00:00 UTC
Third excerpt ( previous excerpts ): Most studies of global climate change using econometric methods have ignored the role of the ocean. Though these studies sometimes produce plausible estimates of the climate sensitivity, they universally produce implausible estimates of the rate of adjustment of surface temperature to long-run equilibrium. For example, Kaufmann and Stern (2002) find that the rate of adjustment of temperature to changes in radiative forcing is around 50% per annum even though they estimate an average global climate sensitivity of 2.03K. Similarly, Kaufmann et al. (2006) esti [...]
- 140 Years of Antitrust: The Evolution of Economic Language Related to Trusts and Antitrust
by Guy Rolnik in Pro-Market, 2016-10-25 23:00:01 UTC
In the third installment of our four-part series on the history of antitrust language in American political discourse, we review the evolution of economic language related to trusts and antitrust in all Democratic and Republican platforms from 1876 to the end of WWII.
This is the third installment in our series, “140 Years of Antitrust: Are Brandeisian Pro-Competition and Anti-Monopoly Sentiments Coming Back into the Political Discourse?” The first installment can be found here and the second installment can be found here .
While both Democrats and Republicans appear eager to jump on [...]
- Pareto and the upper tail of the income distribution in the UK: 1799 to the present
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-10-25 13:44:54 UTC
The Pareto distribution has long been a source of fascination to economists, and the Pareto coefficient is widely used, in theoretical and empirical studies, as a summary of the degree of concentration of top incomes. This paper examines the empirical evidence from income tax data concerning top incomes in the UK, contrasting the dramatic changes that took place in the twentieth century, after 1918, with the much more modest changes in the preceding nineteenth century. Probing beneath the surface, it identifies a number of features of the evolution of the UK income [...]
- Education Quality and Teaching Practices
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-10-25 13:43:35 UTC
Marina Bassi ; Costas Meghir ; Ana Reynoso
This paper uses a RCT to estimate the effectiveness of guided instruction methods as implemented in under-performing schools in Chile. The intervention improved performance substantially for the first cohort of students, but not the second. The effect is mainly accounted for by children from relatively higher income backgrounds. Based on the CLASS instrument we document that quality of teacher-student interactions is positively correlated with the performance of low income students; however, the intervention did not affect these interac [...]
- Coping with change: International differences in returns to skills
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-10-25 13:42:28 UTC
Eric A. Hanushek (Hoover Institution, Standford University, USA) ; Guido Schwerdt (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany) ; Simon Wiederhold (ifo Institute, Germany) ; Ludger Woessmann (ifo Institute, Germany)
Expanded international data from the PIAAC survey of adult skills allow us to analyze potential sources of the cross-country variation of comparably estimated labor-market returns to skills in a more diverse set of 32 countries. Returns to skills are systematically larger in countries that have grown faster in the recent past, consistent with models wher [...]
- Transfers to Households with Children and Child Development
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-10-25 13:41:25 UTC
Del Boca, Daniela ; Flinn, Christopher J ; Wiswall, Matthew
In this paper we utilize a model of household investments in the development of children to explore the impact of various transfer policies on the distribution of child outcomes. We develop a cost criterion that can be used to compare the cost effectiveness of unrestricted, restricted, and conditional cash transfer systems, and find that an optimally chosen conditional cash transfer program is the most cost efficient way to attain any given gain in average child quality. We explore several design elements for the condit [...]
- Blind to costs
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-10-25 12:21:37 UTC
One of the more curious recent opinion poll findings has been that people are unwilling to pay to control immigration. A Yougov poll found that 62% would pay nothing to reduce net migration from the EU, and that only 15% would pay 5% of their income to reduce it to zero. Support for immigration controls, it seems, falls away when people are asked to pay for them.
But of course, such controls do have a cost. Although the near-term impact of immigration (pdf) on overall wages (pdf) is roughly zero, it’s quite plausible that tough migration controls would reduce innovation and productivity growth [...]
- Band or Point Inflation Targeting? An Experimental Approach
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-10-24 16:08:23 UTC
BY Camille Cornand and Cheick Kader M’Baye
We conduct laboratory experiments with human subjects to test the rationale of adopting a band versus point inflation targeting regime. Within the standard New Keynesian model, we evaluate the macroeconomic performances of both regimes according to the strength of shocks affecting the economy. We find that when the economy faces small shocks, the average level of inflation as well as its volatility are significantly lower in a band targeting regime, while the output gap and interest rate le [...]
- Policy and Measurement
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-10-24 11:57:22 UTC
"When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind." William Thomson, Lord Kelvin, 1883 . Policy, especially monetary policy, is about numbers. Is inflation close to target? How fast is the economy growing? What fraction of the workforce is employed? And, what is the relationship between the policymakers’ tools and their objectives? Answering all of these questions requires measuring a broad array of economic indic [...]
- El salario no es una medida de competitividad (II)
by Best Seller in Estructura Desequilibrada, 2016-10-23 19:41:00 UTC
(Segunda entrega sobre la relación entre salarios y exportaciones, la primera acá ). Aun suponiendo que el gobierno logre ganar esa primera batalla, y que para 2017 se alineen el crecimiento de los salarios, el tipo de cambio y los precios, resta analizar cómo es que esa mejora en la competitividad cambiaria se traduciría en un aumento de las exportaciones. Es decir, hay que analizar si efectivamente a partir de una devaluación –traducida como una reducción de los costos (salariales) en moneda extranjera- provoca un aumento de la cantidad exportada. Lamentablemente esto no sucede en la realida [...]
- 3 professors have a radical idea for how to remove bias from the criminal justice system
by ? in Business Insider, 2016-10-22 12:04:00 UTC
Dan Kitwood/Getty Many experts and politicians believe there is, as Hillary Clinton has said repeatedly, "systematic racism throughout the criminal justice system."
As recently as the first presidential debate, Hillary Clinton made this point a hallmark of her criminal justice agenda. She claimed that to address this disparity and implicit bias, she has earmarked money in her initial budget for "retraining" police.
But is training enough to eliminate racial bias? We don't think so.
Indeed, people of color make up about 30% of the United States' population, but they account for 60% of those imp [...]
- Monetary policy for a bubbly world
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-10-21 13:53:58 UTC
By Vladimir Asriyan, Luca Fornaro, Alberto Martin and Jaume Ventura
We propose a model of money, credit and bubbles, and use it to study the role of monetary policy in managing asset bubbles. In this model, bubbles pop up and burst, generating fluctuations in credit, investment and output. Two key insights emerge from the analysis. First, the growth rate of bubbles, which is driven by agents’ expectations, can be set in real or in nominal terms. This gives rise to a novel channel of monetary policy, as changes in the inflation rate affect the [...]
- Is the Fed a firefighter or an arsonist?, by Scott Sumner
by ? in Econlog, 2016-10-20 13:20:17 UTC
Most economists view the Fed as a sort of firefighter, an institution that pushes back against "shocks" that mysteriously arise in the private sector. Bob Hetzel and Josh Hendrickson have a different view. Here's Josh :
The predominant difference between this view and the Taylor view presented above can be expressed in terms of whether the Federal Reserve can be seen as an inflation fighter or an inflation creator, as summarized by Hetzel (2008a). The inflation-fighter view suggests that ''inflation shocks are the initializing factor in inflation'' and ''explanations of inflation stress FOM [...]
- What order? Perturbation methods for stochastic volatility asset pricing and business cycle models
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-10-19 15:18:01 UTC
By Oliver de Groot
When a DSGE model features stochastic volatility, is a third-order perturbation approximation sufficient? The answer is often no. A key parameter – the standard deviation of stochastic volatility innovations – does not appear in the coefficients of the decision rules of endogenous variables until a fourth- or sixth-order perturbation approximation (depending on the functional form of the stochastic volatility process). This paper shows analytically this general result and demonstrates, using three models, that important mode [...]
- The Richness of Giving: Charity Selection and Charitable Gifts in a Large Field Experiment
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-10-19 14:27:57 UTC
Daniel Lee ; John List ; Michael Price ; Shachar Kariv
We build on previous work in the charitable giving literature by examining not only how much subjects give to charity, but also which charities subjects prefer. We operationalize this choice in an artefactual field experiment with a representative sample of respondents. We then use these data to structurally model motives for giving. The novelty of this design allows us to ask several interesting questions regarding the choices one undertakes when deciding both whether and how much to give to charity. Further, we ask these q [...]
- Earnings among Nine Ethnic Minorities and the Han Majority in Chinaâs Cities
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-10-19 14:27:14 UTC
Gustafsson, Björn Anders (University of Gothenburg) ; Yang, Xiuna (China Development Research Foundation)
This paper asks if economic growth and steps towards a market economy have affected earnings gaps between the Han and nine large urban ethnic minorities: Zhuang, Hui, Manchurian, Tujia, Uighur, Miao, Tibetan, Mongol and Korean. It also asks how earnings premiums and earnings penalties have changed for the nine ethnic minorities. For the analysis we use a subsample of the 2005 China’s Inter-Census Survey. We find examples of three different changes over time in earnings premi [...]
- Inequality Aversion and Marginal Income Taxation
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-10-19 14:26:31 UTC
Aronsson, Thomas (Department of Economics, Umeå School of Business and Economics, Umeå University) ; Johansson-Stenman, Olof (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
This paper deals with tax policy responses to inequality aversion by examining the first-best Pareto-efficient marginal tax structure when people are inequality averse. In doing so, we distinguish between four different and widely used models of inequality aversion. The results show that empirically and experimentally quantified degrees of inequality aversion have potenti [...]
- On the measurement of long-run income inequality. Empirical evidence from Norway, 1875-2013
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-10-19 14:25:50 UTC
Rolf Aaberge ; Anthony B Atkinson ; Jørgen Modalsli (Statistics Norway)
In seeking to understand inequality today, a great deal can be learned from history. However, there are few countries for which the long-run development of income inequality has been charted. Many countries have records of incomes, taxes and social support. This paper presents a new methodology constructing income inequality indices from such tabular data. The methodology is applied to Norway, for which rich historical data sources exist covering the period 1875 to 2013. Taking careful account of the definit [...]
- Fiscal Policy, Inequality and the Poor in the Developing World
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-10-19 14:25:05 UTC
Nora Lustig (Department of Economics, Tulane University)
Using comparable fiscal incidence analysis, this paper examines the impact of fiscal policy on inequality and poverty in twenty-five countries for around 2010. Success in fiscal redistribution is driven primarily by redistributive effort (share of social spending to GDP in each country) and the extent to which transfers/subsidies are targeted to the poor and direct taxes targeted to the rich. While fiscal policy always reduces inequality, this is not the case with poverty. Fiscal policy increases poverty in four countries [...]
- EducaciÃ³n pÃºblica y externalidades
by Manuel A. Hidalgo in Politikon, 2016-10-18 08:00:44 UTC
La justificación para la intervención del Estado en la economía ha sido de siempre muy variada. Algunos han utilizado conjuntamente conceptos como justicia y sociedad con los que argumentar que dicha intervención responde a una obligación para con aquellos más necesitados. Otros han sido más teóricos, y basándose en los llamados fallos del mercado han defendido la intervención pública debido a la existencia de mercados incompletos, de información asimétrica, de economías de escala, barreras de entrada, etc.
Entre estos fallos destaca a su vez la existencia de externalidades, es decir, situacio [...]
- Bootstrapping DSGE models
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-10-17 14:10:45 UTC
By Giovanni Angelini, Giuseppe Cavaliere and Luca Fanelli
This paper explores the potential of bootstrap methods in the empirical evaluation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and, more generally, in linear rational expectations models featuring unobservable (latent) components. We consider two dimensions. First, we provide mild regularity conditions that suffice for the bootstrap Quasi-Maximum Likelihood (QML) estimator of the structural parameters to mimic the asymptotic distribution of the QML estimator. Consisten [...]
- Rewriting the textbook: covered interest parity
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-10-17 12:50:11 UTC
“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.” Dorothy in The Wizard of Oz For decades, textbooks on international economics and finance built a part of their scaffolding on the foundation of a relationship called covered interest parity (CIP). CIP postulates that, in a world of free capital flows, currency-hedged returns on equivalent-risk assets will equalize across countries. For example, the return to investing in a 1-year U.S. Treasury bill will equal the return to purchasing euros, investing the proceeds in a 1-year German Government liability, and purchasing a contr [...]
- Independence at the CFPB and the Fed
by email@example.com (Carola) in Quantitative Ease, 2016-10-15 19:42:00 UTC
One of my major motivations in starting this blog a few years ago was to have a space to grapple with the topic of central bank independence and accountability. One of the most important things I have learned since then is that independence and accountability are highly multi-dimensional concepts; different institutions can be granted different types of independence, and can fail to be accountable in countless ways. As a corollary, nominal or de jure independence does not guarantee de facto independence. Likewise, an institution may be accountable in name only. A recent ruling by the U.S. Cou [...]
- The New Normal
by thebusinesscycleblog in The business cycle blog, 2016-10-15 15:07:31 UTC
Research on the how demographics may have shaped recent trends in economic growth and real interest rates by Etienne Gagnon, Benjamin K. Johannsen, and J. David Lopez-Salido here [...]
- Foreign Official Holdings of U.S Treasuries, Stock Effect and the Economy: A DSGE Approach
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-10-15 15:02:38 UTC
John Nana Francois
Previous studies focus on quantifying the effect of foreign official holdings of long-term U.S Treasuries (FOHL) on the long-term interest rate. The consensus is that FOHL has a large and negative effect on the long-term interest rate. The long-term interest rate matters in determining aggregate demand, (Andres et al., 2004). However, these studies discount the macroeconomic implications of FOHL on the U.S economy. This paper extends the literature and studies the macroeconomic implications of FOHL shocks through their imp [...]
- Anni di alta teoria (e non solo): Garegnani alla Svimez
by Sergio Cesaratto in Politica&EconomiaBlog, 2016-10-15 08:05:00 UTC
Pubblichiamo il mio intervento all'incontro organizzato dalla Svimez e dal Centro Sraffa [...]
- El experimento dependencia
by Sergi JimÃ©nez in Nada Es Gratis, 2016-10-14 01:00:42 UTC
Uno de los grandes logros sociales de la etapa Zapatero fue la gestación e implementación de la Ley de Dependencia. En algunos posts previos, Cristina Vilaplana y yo mismo comentamos los problemas que tuvo su introducción ( aquí ) y, aprovechando el primer observatorio de la dependencia de FEDEA, las tribulaciones corrientes a las que se enfrenta ( aquí ). Para una visión complementaria es recomendable consultar Peña et al (2016) . Hoy, tal y como le gusta a Floren (y a Marcel, Nacho y otros tantos compañeros), nos centraremos en el impacto de la introducción del sistema de atenció [...]
- The Earned Income Tax Credit: Targeting the Poor but Crowding Out Wealth
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-10-13 19:17:26 UTC
By Maren Froemel and Charles Gottlieb
In this paper, we quantify the effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) from a macroeconomic perspective. We use an incomplete markets model to analyze jointly the labor supply and saving responses to changes in tax credit generosity and their aggregate and distributional implications. In line with existing literature, our results show that the EITC is an effective policy instrument to raise labor force participation and provide insurance to working poor households. However, we show that the EITC als [...]
- Comments on Intra-Industry Trade
by Fabien Candau in Blog@ge sur l'économie internationale, 2016-10-13 08:28:00 UTC
"The majority of trade is not across sectors but rather within industries. That is, instead of observing a country that exports tiles to import shirts, we observe a country that exports tiles to also import tiles, and we observe the same country to export and import shirts.
Grubel and Lloyd (1975) developed an index, now known as the Grubel-Lloyd index, for measuring the fraction of trade flows that take place within industries as opposed to across sectors. Using this decomposition they showed that in many countries the majority of trade is intra-industry rather than intersectoral." H. He [...]
- Social science does not reward citing outside the field
by dan in Decision Science News, 2016-10-13 03:48:55 UTC
THE SOCIAL AND NATURAL SCIENCES DIFFER IN THIS REGARD
We have talked in the past about how economics does not cite other fields much (see Pieters and Baumgartner, 2002 ). Are authors rewarded for writing papers this way? In social science, the answer seems to be yes.
A recent article in Plos One “The Impact of Boundary Spanning Scholarly Publications and Patents” by Xiaolin Shi, Lada A. Adamic, Belle L. Tseng, and Gavin S. Clarkson looks at the correlations between a paper’s impact and whether it cites within or across fields:
The question we ask is simple: given the proximity in subject ar [...]
- Pro-Basketball Player Demand for the New Urban Lifestyle
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-10-12 14:41:00 UTC
Fifteen years ago, Amazon's Pat Bajari and I started to work together on an urban economics paper studying household choice of housing type (i.e number or rooms, building year built) and neighborhood within major metropolitan areas. �At first, we assumed that a household head already had a job and then searched for a place to live. �This sequential approach would have greatly helped us because if people work in different locations, then the same neighborhood offers a different length commute for different people. This variation is very useful for allowing an economist to estimate the disutilit [...]
- Debt forgiveness in the German mirror
by nmpostelvinay in NEP-HIS blog, 2016-10-12 12:55:09 UTC
The Economic Consequences of the 1953 London Debt Agreement
By Gregori Galofré-Vilà (Oxford), Martin McKee (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine), Chris Meissner (UC Davis) and David Stuckler (Oxford)
Abstract: In 1953 the Western Allied powers implemented a radical debt-relief plan that would, in due course, eliminate half of West Germany’s external debt and create a series of favourable debt repayment conditions. The London Debt Agreement (LDA) correlated with West Germany experiencing the highest rate of economic growth recorded in Europe in the 1950s and 1960s. In this paper we [...]
- The Fiscal Multiplier in Small Open Economy: The Role of Liquidity Frictions
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2016-10-11 14:27:15 UTC
By Jasmin Sin
This paper studies the fiscal multiplier using a small-open-economy DSGE model enriched with financial frictions. It shows that the multiplier is large when frictions are present in domestic and international financial markets. The reason is that in the model government bonds are more liquid than private financial assets and that entrepreneurs face liquidity constraints. A bond-financed fiscal expansion eases these constraints and stimulates investment and hence growth. This mechanism, however, breaks down under the assumption [...]
- 299 â Are higher house prices a benefit or a problem?
by David Pannell in Pannell Discussions, 2016-10-10 15:00:12 UTC
In the research reported in PD298 , we used the impact on house prices as an indicator of the benefits of an investment in a public amenity. This is a well-established approach, but twice in recent times I’ve encountered an attitude that higher house prices are more of a cost than a benefit. Could that be right?
The issue that people have in mind when they raise this concern is housing affordability. This certainly is something that is worthy of attention. House prices in many parts of Australia (and other developed countries) are often so high that they place great financial stress on buyers [...]
- Clinton versus Trump on Financial Regulation
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-10-10 12:51:08 UTC
Will the U.S. Presidential election have an impact on financial regulation? The answer depends on who becomes President, the priorities of the winner, and the inclinations of the Congress. That said, we thought it would be useful to examine what the candidates say they will do. To summarize, we find Republican nominee Trump’s call to “dismantle Dodd-Frank” deeply troubling. By comparison, our differences with Democratic nominee Clinton are relatively minor. Let’s start with Donald Trump. It is difficult to identify more than general statements regarding nominee Trump’s views on financial regul [...]
- US social mobility might be even worse than you thought
by ? in Forum:Blog, 2016-10-10 09:48:00 UTC
A new paper looks at US social mobility - going back as far as great-grandparents. [...]
- Gasoline Prices, Transport Costs, and the U.S. Business Cycles
by Hakan Yilmazkuday in Hakan Yilmazkuday's Blog, 2016-10-10 00:35:00 UTC
� Gasoline Prices, Transport Costs, and the U.S. Business Cycles One sentence summary : Technology and monetary policy shocks have significant effects on the U.S. business cycles in the long run, while gasoline supply and demand shocks play an important role in the short run. The corresponding paper by Hakan Yilmazkuday has been published at Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control . The working paper version is available here. Abstract The effects of gasoline prices on the U.S. business cycles are investigated. In order to distinguish between gasoline supply and gasoline demand shocks, the pr [...]
- Still No Woman at the Helm of the UN
by ? in Common Dreams - Breaking News & Views for the Progressive Community, 2016-10-08 19:37:00 UTC
Anne Marie GoetzAntónio Guterres, former Prime Minister of Portugal, former High Commissioner of the UN’s agency for supporting refugees, will be the next UN Secretary-General. The decision was, in an unusual show of unity, announce [...]
- When to distrust elites
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-10-08 10:30:15 UTC
Whom should we trust: elites or the people? I’m in two minds here.
On the one hand, on the issues of immigration and Brexit , I’m with the elites.
But in other respects, I’m on the side of the people. I’ve repeatedly argued for worker democracy against managerialism, and have consistently pointed out the shortcomings of professional fund managers. And I’ve pointed out that popular opinion – as measured by ratios (pdf) of consumer spending to asset prices – can do a better job of forecasting future economic conditions than professional forecasters can manage .
So, am I just confused?
No. There [...]
- Socializing investment
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-10-07 12:49:18 UTC
Philip Hammond promised this week “to renew and expand Britain’s infrastructure”. This might represent a return to Keynesianism in more ways than one.
The obvious sense is that he’ll be using fiscal policy counter-cyclically, supporting the economy during a time of Brexit-induced uncertainty; economists expect real GDP growth of only 0.7 per cent next year, well below long-term averages.
But there’s another sense. Keynes also looked forward to “a somewhat comprehensive socialisation of investment.” Hammond might push us in this direction.
My chart, taken from ONS and OBR data, puts this into [...]
- Striking new research on inequality: âWhatever you thought, itâs worseâ
by Ana Swanson in Wonkblog, 2016-10-06 14:27:14 UTC
Social mobility, the amount that a typical American moves up or down the economic ladder from where their parents and grandparents stood, has became a major focus of political discussion, academic research and popular outrage in the years since the global financial crisis. While Americans have traditionally seen their country as a place where anyone can make through hard work and a stroke of luck, data collected in the past decade have shown otherwise.
Compared with many European countries, for example, few Americans end up with an income or educational level that is substantially different t [...]
- Redacted ecology faculty search
by ? in Dynamic Ecology, 2016-10-06 11:20:00 UTC
Duke is hiring an ecologist. And in an attempt to avoid bias, the initial stage of the search will be conducted on redacted applications. Applicants are asked to provide two copies of their cv’s, research statements, and teaching statements: a normal [...]
- Do People Shape Cities, or Do Cities Shape People? THe Co-evolution of Physical, Social and Economic Change in Five Major U.S. Cities
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-10-05 19:05:27 UTC
Naik, Nikhil (MIT) ; Kominers, Scott Duke (Harvard University) ; Raskar, Ramesh (MIT) ; Glaeser, Edward L. (Harvard University) ; Hidalgo, Cesar A. (MIT)
Urban change involves transformations in the physical appearance and the social composition of neighborhoods. Yet, the relationship between the physical and social components of urban change is not well understood due to the lack of comprehensive measures of neighborhood appearance. Here, we introduce a computer vision method to quantify change in physical appearance of streetscapes and generate a dataset of physical change for [...]
- The Wage Impact of the Marielitos: A Reappraisal
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-10-05 19:03:02 UTC
Borjas, George J. (Harvard University)
This paper brings a new perspective to the analysis of the Mariel supply shock, revisiting the question and the data armed with the accumulated insights from the vast literature on the economic impact of immigration. A crucial lesson from this literature is that any credible attempt to measure the wage impact of immigration must carefully match the skills of the immigrants with those of the pre-existing workforce. The Marielitos were disproportionately low-skill; at least 60 percent were high school dropouts. A reappraisal of the Mariel evi [...]
- Debunking the Stereotype of the Lazy Welfare Recipient: Evidence from Cash Transfer Programs Worldwide
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-10-05 19:01:23 UTC
Banerjee, Abhijit (MIT) ; Hanna, Rema (Harvard University) ; Kreindler, Gabriel (MIT) ; Olken, Benjamin A. (MIT)
Targeted transfer programs for poor citizens have become increasingly common in the developing world. Yet, a common concern among policy makers – both in developing as well as developed countries – is that such programs tend to discourage work. We re-analyze the data from 7 randomized controlled trials of government-run cash transfer programs in six developing countries throughout the world, and find no systematic evidence that cash transfer programs discourage work.
- Can Cash Transfers Help Households Escape an Inter-Generational Poverty Trap?
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-10-05 19:00:07 UTC
M. Caridad Araujo ; Mariano Bosch ; Norbert Schady
Many poor households in developing countries are liquidity-constrained. As a result, they may under-invest in the human capital of their children. We provide new evidence on the long-term (10-year) effects of cash transfers using data from Ecuador. Our analysis is based on two separate sources of data and two identification strategies. First, we extend the results from an experiment that randomly assigned children under the age of 6 years to “early” or “late” treatment groups. Although the early treatment group received twice as [...]
- Africa should invest in itself
by Johan Fourie in Johan Fourie's Blog, 2016-10-04 08:20:51 UTC
Imagine you receive the news tomorrow that an unknown, distant family member has passed on and left you a bequest of a million dollars. What to do? Spend it immediately on luxury consumption – a round-the-world trip, perhaps – or invest it offshore and live off the returns, thereby smoothing your consumption and protecting the wealth for your own and your children’s futures? There is another option, though: immediate investment in yourself, say by enrolling at Harvard for an MBA. This way you not only boost your personal future income, but more educated parents tend to have more educated (and [...]
- 298 â Potential value from restoring urban drains
by David Pannell in Pannell Discussions, 2016-10-03 15:00:13 UTC
I remember as a child playing in the stormwater drains near my home in suburban Perth. The drains were straight, steep-sided, fenced off (to keep us out) and the banks were bare grass, but the water contained little fish, called gambusia , that we loved to catch, not caring that they were actually feral pests.
These days, there is growing interest in restoring urban drains to something approaching a natural stream, including natural vegetation on the surrounding land. In a study funded by the CRC for Water Sensitive Cities , we set out to measure the benefits from restoring a particular drain [...]
- How risky are the big U.S. banks?
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-10-03 12:58:45 UTC
Readers of this blog know that we are great fans of the Stern Volatility Lab’s estimates of systemic risk . Like many observers, including leading regulators , we find market-value rather than book-value measures of bank equity more useful for timely monitoring of systemic risk created by individual intermediaries. Equity prices are available in real time, rapidly incorporate bank-specific and economy-wide information, and are forward-looking. This makes them particularly helpful in assessing the impact of big events, like this summer’s Brexit referendum (see our earlier post ). So, based as i [...]
- Some Suggested Reading for October
by Dave Giles in Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog, 2016-10-02 18:53:00 UTC
For your enjoyment: Diebold, F. X. & M. Shin , 2016. Assessing point forecast accuracy by stochastic error distance. NBER Working Paper No.2516. Franses, P.H. , 2016. Yet another look at MIDAS regression. Econometric Institute Report 2016-32. Hillier, G. & F. Martellosio , 2016. Exact properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in spatial autoregressive models. Discussion Paper DP 07/16, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. Li, L., M.J. Holmes, & B.S. Lee , 2016. The asymmetric relationship between executive earnings management and compensation: A panel threshold regression approa [...]
- Bibliography on Post Keynesian Economics (Updated)
by LK in Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Post Keynesian Perspective, 2016-10-01 14:15:00 UTC
The updated bibliography below provides a list of the most important books and articles on various topics within Post Keynesian economics. It is divided into the following sections (and there are now links to each section): (1) Introductory Studies (2) Advanced Overviews and Specialised Studies (3) History of Post Keynesian Economics (4) Methodology (5) Uncertainty (6) Endogenous Money (7) Fiscal Policy (8) Inflation (9) Price Theory (10) Trade Theory (11) Cambridge Capital Controversies (12) On the Work of George L. S. Shackle (13) On the Work of Hyman Minsky (14) Alfred Mitchell Innes and th [...]
- Generational vs class divides
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2016-10-01 12:32:50 UTC
In a typically great post, Rick challenges the notion that people born between the mid-40s and mid-60s represent some kind of homogenous generation. I agree, and want to amplify his post in two ways.
First, one reason why there’s a massive difference between those born in the mid-40s and those in the mid-60s is that our formative years were very different. The mid-40s generation left school in the early 60s, a time of full employment when even the unqualified could walk into albeit unsatisfying work. My generation left school at a time of high and rising unemployment. This is the difference be [...]
- Is there really an empirical turn in economics?
by Beatrice Cherrier in INET Blog, 2016-09-29 23:47:00 UTC
The idea that economics has recently gone through an empirical turn –that it
went from theory to data – is all over the place. Economists have been trumpeting this transformation on their blogs in the last few years, more rarely qualifying it. It is now showing up in economists' publications. Not only in articles by those who claim to have been the architects of a "credibility revolution," but by others as well . This narrative is also finding its way into historical works, for instance Avner Offer and Gabriel Söderberg's new book on the history of the [...]
- Understanding Long-run Price Dispersion
by Hakan Yilmazkuday in Hakan Yilmazkuday's Blog, 2016-09-29 21:56:00 UTC
- Is UCLA Transportation Achieving "Carbon Neutrality"?
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-09-28 21:59:00 UTC
I am happy to read that UCLA has swapped out its diesel buses and now purchased clean buses (from China's BYD) but the entire fleet consists of 16 buses. �This article ignores the fact that probably 75% of UCLA's employee transport miles commuting to campus take place in private vehicles. � These vehicles emit CO2 on each trip. �I know a thing or two about bus economics b ecause I wrote this paper. � � The article quotes� � Renee Fortier �. � I bet that she doesn't remember a meeting she had with me back in February of 2007. �I was a brand new UCLA Professor and I entered her office and made t [...]
- Informal Labor and the Efficiency Cost of Social Programs: Evidence from the Brazilian Unemployment Insurance Program
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-09-28 18:36:08 UTC
François Gerard ; Gustavo Gonzaga
It is widely believed that the presence of a large informal sector increases the efficiency cost of social programs – transfer and social insurance programs – in developing countries. We evaluate such claims for policies that have been heavily studied in countries with low informality – increases in unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. We introduce informal work opportunities into a canonical model of optimal UI that specifies the typical tradeoff between workers’ need for insurance and the efficiency cost from distorting their incentives to re [...]
- Women Working Longer: Facts and Some Explanations
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-09-28 18:35:20 UTC
Claudia Goldin ; Lawrence F. Katz
American women are working more, through their sixties and even into their seventies. Their increased participation at older ages started in the late 1980s before the turnaround in older men’s labor force participation and the economic downturns of the 2000s. The higher labor force participation of older women consists disproportionately of those working at full-time jobs. Increased labor force participation of women in their older ages is part of the general increase in cohort labor force participation. Cohort effects, in turn, are mainly a fun [...]
- Electoral reciprocity in programmatic redistribution: Experimental Evidence
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-09-28 18:34:33 UTC
Sebastian Galiani ; Nadya Hajj ; Pablo Ibarraran ; Nandita Krishnaswamy ; Patrick J. McEwan
We analyzed two conditional cash transfers experiments that preceded Honduran presidential elections in 2001 and 2013. In the first, smaller transfers had no effects on voter turnout or incumbent vote share. In the second, larger transfers increased turnout and incumbent share in similar magnitudes, consistent with the mobilization of the incumbent party base rather than vote switching. Moreover, we found that turnout and incumbent share increased when cumulative payments were similar, bu [...]
- Knowledge Capital and Aggregate Income Differences: Development Accounting for U.S. States
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-09-28 18:33:06 UTC
Hanushek, Eric A. (Stanford University) ; Ruhose, Jens (Leibniz University) ; Woessmann, Ludger (University of Munich)
Although many U.S. state policies presume that human capital is important for state economic development, there is little research linking better education to state incomes. We develop detailed measures of skills of workers in each state based on school attainment from census micro data and on cognitive skills from state- and country-of-origin achievement tests. These new measures of knowledge capital permit development accounting analyses calibrated with standa [...]
- Do Women Ask?
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-09-28 18:31:48 UTC
Artz, Benjamin (University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh) ; Goodall, Amanda H. (Cass Business School) ; Oswald, Andrew J. (University of Warwick)
Women typically earn less than men. The reasons are not fully understood. Previous studies argue that this may be because (i) women ‘don’t ask’ and (ii) the reason they fail to ask is out of concern for the quality of their relationships at work. This account is difficult to assess with standard labor-economics data sets. Hence we examine direct survey evidence. Using matched employer-employee data from 2013-14, the paper finds that the women- [...]
- The Growth-Employment-Poverty Nexus in Latin America in the 2000s: Cross-Country Analysis
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2016-09-28 18:30:53 UTC
Guillermo Cruces (CEDLAS – UNLP , CONICET y IZA) ; Gary S. Fields (Cornell University y IZA) ; David Jaume (Cornell University) ; Mariana Viollaz (CEDLAS – UNLP)
In the great majority of Latin American countries in the 2000s, economic growth took place and brought about improvements in almost all labour market indicators and consequent reductions in poverty rates. Across countries, economic growth was not all that mattered; external factors were particularly important for changes in labour market conditions, while reductions in poverty were strongly related to improvements in ea [...]
- More Wealth, More Jobs, but Not for Everyone: What Fuels the Backlash on Trade
by ? in NYT > Politics, 2016-09-28 15:12:00 UTC
Trade is under attack in much of the world, because economists failed to anticipate the accompanying joblessness, and governments failed to help. [...]
- Why Study Economics?
by ? in The Big Picture, 2016-09-28 09:00:00 UTC
Why Study Economics? Vice Chairman�Stanley Fischer Howard University, Washington, D.C. September 27, 2016 � � � I am very pleased to visit today with the students and faculty of the Howard University Economics Department. First, a fact [...]
- Why Study Economics?
by ? in Noozilla Top, 2016-09-27 16:00:00 UTC
Why Study Economics?: I am very pleased to visit today with the students and faculty of the Howard University Economics Department. First, a fact that you know but others may not: The Howard University Economics Department is the... [...]
- Why Study Economics?
by Mark Thoma in Economist's View, 2016-09-27 09:14:56 UTC
Why Study Economics? : I am very pleased to visit today with the students and faculty of the Howard University Economics Department. First, a fact that you know but others may not: The Howard University Economics Department is the only producer of economics Ph.D.'s among the nation's historically black colleges and universities, and it has been teaching economics to undergraduates for nearly a century. 1
Speaking as one economist to a group among whom I hope will be many future economists, let me start by saying that pursuing a degree in economics can bring many rewards. Firs [...]
- Â¿Estamos evaluando correctamente el riesgo de sobre-explotaciÃ³n de las pesquerÃas?
by JosÃ© MarÃa Da Rocha in Foco Económico, 2016-09-26 21:00:38 UTC
Las grandes explotaciones pesqueras comerciales (pesquerías) se evalúan por medio de agencias internacionales. Estas agencias de carácter multinacional proporcionan recomendaciones científicas sobre la explotación del recurso basadas en la evaluación del estado del recurso (el cálculo del número de peces, de cada edad, que hay en el mar).
¿Cómo se evalúan los recursos? La idea básica es muy simple. Imagínense que se quiere calcular la “tasa promedio de fecundidad de un pueblo” (conocerla nos permitirá calcular el potencial de reproducción de esa población). Para ello necesitas calcular una ser [...]
- 295 â What is a threatened species worth?
by David Pannell in Pannell Discussions, 2016-09-26 15:00:19 UTC
There are around 1800 species included on Australia’s national list of threatened species of fauna and flora . The most severely threatened category, “critically endangered”, includes 6 mammals, 16 birds, 8 fish, 9 reptiles, 5 frogs, 25 other animals and 148 plants.
My feeling is that the general public is more concerned about threatened species than about many other environmental issues. There is something horrifying about the thought of extinction that resonates with most people to some extent.
Nevertheless, our performance at improving the status of threatened species is generally poor, i [...]
- Addicted to Oil: U.S. Gasoline Consumption is Higher than Ever
by ? in , 2016-09-26 14:04:00 UTC
August was the biggest month ever for U.S. gasoline consumption. Americans used a staggering 9.7 million barrels per day. That’s more than a gallon per day for every U.S. man, woman and child. The new peak comes as a surprise … Continue readin [...]
- Transparent stress tests?
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 2016-09-26 12:22:36 UTC
This month, the Committee on Capital Market Regulation (CCMR) published a paper criticizing the procedures the Federal Reserve uses in conducting its stress tests. The claim is that, in its annual Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR), the Fed is violating the Administrative Procedures Act of 1946 (APA). The CCMR’s proposed solution is more transparency. As big fans of both stress tests and transparency in general, and of the CCAR in particular, we find this legal challenge very troubling. We believe that making the stress tests more transparent in the ways that the CCMR suggests wo [...]
- KontrÃ¦re idÃ©er #2: Mindre velfÃ¦rd betyder mere velfÃ¦rd
by Christian BjÃ¸rnskov in Punditokraterne, 2016-09-26 08:32:44 UTC
Det må være et af de største retoriske kup i nyere tid: At ordet ’velfærd’ ikke længere betyder at et individ eller en familie trives, vurderet i overensstemmelse med deres egne mål og formål, men at det nu for de fleste danskere betyder, i hvor høj grad de har adgang til skatteyderbetalte, offentlige ydelser. I den politiske newspeak betyder øget velfærd derfor fuldstændigt det samme som øgede offentlige udgifter.
Spørgsmålet, man må stille sig selv er, hvornår større offentlige udgifter fører til større individuel velfærd – forstået på den oprindelige måde som større velbefindende. Svaret er [...]
- More Behavioral Economics from the NY Times: The Case of Volcano Risk and Implications for Climate Change Awareness
by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics, 2016-09-26 00:07:00 UTC
The writers for the NY Times are a consistent bunch. In the Book Review section today, there is a short discussion by Kim Tingley reviewing a new book called Eruption by Steve Olson. See if you can spot the "behavioral economics" mindset that we are fools who are ignorant of the risks we have imposed on ourselves. The book author and the reviewer are concerned that "we don't know that we don't know" what climate change will do to us in the future. The author and the reviewer are somehow smarter than everyone else and sit on Mount Olympus and ponder the fate of the common man (think of [...]
- Â¿SubirÃ¡ Banxico su tasa de referencia en su prÃ³xima reuniÃ³n?
by Alejandro Villagomez in Tintero Económico Diario, 2016-09-25 01:56:00 UTC
La próxima semana, la Junta de Gobierno del Banco de México tendrá su reunión para decidir sus acciones de política monetaria y la pregunta es si aumentará su tasa de referencia. Cabe mencionar que la semana pasada, la Reserva Federal mantuvo sin cambio su tasa de referencia, aunque en su comunicado señaló que las probabilidades de aumentarla en este año aumentan. Ya diversos analistas han señalado su posición sobre lo que ocurrirá y en esta nota doy mi opinión. En un paper que publiqué junto con Rodolfo Cermeño y Javier Orellana en el 2012, “ Monetary policy rules in asmall open economy: an a [...]
- New working paper on the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
by John Whitehead in Environmental Economics, 2016-09-24 09:01:06 UTC
Lost Recreational Value from the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Using Revealed and Stated Preference Data
John C. Whitehead , Tim Haab , Sherry Larkin , John Loomis , Sergio Alvarez and Andrew Ropicki
No 16-16, Working Papers from Department of Economics, Appalachian State University
Abstract: The lost recreational use values from the BP/Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico were estimated from cancelled recreational trips to Northwest Florida. The impacts were calculated using the travel cost method for a single site with primary data collected from an online survey conducted after [...]